Fiesta Bowl 2020: Full Preview and Predictions for Oregon vs. Iowa State

Two weeks ago, what had started as a season with College Football Playoff and New Year’s Six aspirations for Oregon looked like it would end in disappointment. The Ducks, who had entered the season ranked in the top 10, lost consecutive games to Oregon State and California, effectively ending their hopes of an undefeated season and Pac-12 title. 

Instead, Washington and USC were set to face off for the crown, but that has been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. When the Huskies were unable to field a full enough roster to compete because of positive cases and contact tracing, the Ducks were slid up to fill in and play on short notice. 

And in true 2020 fashion, Oregon upset the then-No. 13 Trojans, stealing away a Fiesta Bowl bid in a game they weren’t even supposed to play in. It’s always good to be good, but it never hurts to be lucky. 

In the desert, an Iowa State team coming off a disappointing loss to archrival Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship will be waiting. The Cyclones, who came into the weekend ranked No. 6 in the College Football Playoff rankings, had an outside shot at the CFP, though even with a win over the Sooners, their path was narrow. Oklahoma avenged the loss ISU handed them earlier this year, jumping out to a 24-7 halftime lead before holding off a late Cyclones rally to win 27-21. 

Keys to the Game

Iowa State

For Iowa State’s offense, everything starts and ends with sophomore running back Breece Hall, who, after an impressive freshman season, jumped onto the scene in 2020 as one of the country’s best running backs. In 11 games, Hall rushed for 1,436 yards and 19 touchdowns, while also adding 21 catches for 170 yards and two more scores. He leads the nation in rushing yards and attempts, and he’s second in rushing touchdowns only to Alabama’s Najee Harris, who has scored 24 times. 

The Cyclones are no slouch in the passing game, though, as junior quarterback Brock Purdy has put together an impressive season of his own, completing 66 percent of his passes and throwing for 2,594 yards and 18 touchdowns. ISU is one of the more balanced offenses in the country, rushing an average of 36 times per game and throwing 31. 

Their defense, though, has been arguably even more impressive, particularly against the run. Iowa State ranks 10th nationally in rushing defense, allowing just 104.6 yards per game to opposing offenses. Among teams that have played 10 or more games in this shortened season, the Cyclones rank fourth in rushing touchdowns allowed, only giving up nine scores on the ground in 11 contests. 

Oregon 

A large part of Oregon’s offensive identity is centered around running the ball (36 attempts per game), and the Ducks will have to have success against ISU’s run defense to open up their passing game. As a unit, Oregon’s offense is averaging a solid 4.9 yards per carry, and it’s done by committee, with three running backs notching more than 55 carries through six games. 

Junior running backs CJ Verdell and Travis Dye are the primary ball-carriers, though quarterback Tyler Shough has some wheels as well, with 263 rushing yards and two touchdowns of his own on the ground. Shough’s success in the passing game often comes from his ability to neutralize aggressive defenses with his legs, and while his stat line won’t have him in contention for the Heisman this year, he’s dangerous. After attempting just 15 passes last year as a backup, he has filled the starting role admirably, throwing for 1,480 yards, 13 touchdowns and just five interceptions. 

Continuing to take care of the ball will be key against this Cyclones’ defense, which has 14 total takeaways through 11 games, including eight interceptions. Against a team who runs the ball as well as ISU does, limiting turnovers could be the difference in what’s expected to be a tightly contested game. 

Prediction: A little bit of Breece Hall goes a long way, and the Ducks have struggled all season against the run, giving up 159.8 yards per game and 13 rushing touchdowns in just six contests.

It won’t be a blowout, but the Cyclones will ride Breece to their first New Year’s Six bowl victory in school history.

Iowa State 34, Oregon 24