College Football Playoff Notebook: If You Want Drama, Root for a Clemson Loss
In all four editions of the 2020 College Football Playoff rankings, the Top Four hasn't changed a bit. It's read Alabama, Notre Dame, Clemson and Ohio State—in that order—every Tuesday.
While it's unlikely to remain static on Selection Day, the same four programs might be headed to the CFP.
Alabama and Ohio State are heavy favorites in their respective conference title games. If they win, they're in. And if Clemson tops Notre Dame in the ACC Championship Game, the Irish have a strong case for a playoff bid anyway.
Since the CFP selection committee has consistently kept Ohio State above Texas A&M—no matter whether you agree on that decision—any "debate" would be a manufactured controversy. The only unknown for Sunday would be whether Notre Dame or Ohio State is ranked third.
If the favorites win, the four playoff teams will very likely be Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Notre Dame.
But if Clemson loses, there will be genuine drama. As ESPN's David Pollack said on the rankings show, "Let the fun begin."
Clemson has received a slight pass from the selection committee for its loss at Notre Dame. It's a product of more games played than Ohio State and the Tigers' short-handed roster in the ND loss. But if they fall Saturday, that margin for error—or forgiveness, really—would be diminished.
From there, it's a discussion of flawed teams. And there is no obviously "correct" answer.
Clemson controlled all of its other opponents beyond Boston College, a game Trevor Lawrence missed because of a positive coronavirus test.
If the ACC title is close, the committee may decide Clemson is a tier better than Texas A&M and Iowa State. While you don't have to agree with the conclusion, the previous "dominant" label shows the premise is plausible. Besides, if Florida dropped one—one!—spot following a loss to 4-5 LSU, it'd be remarkable for the committee to slap Clemson for dropping a game to 10-0 Notre Dame.
Possible? You bet. Consistent? No way. Has that mattered to the committee? Nope!
Still, the Tigers would've faltered twice to a playoff-caliber team, including once at full strength (or close to it). Clemson is easily the most talented of the trio, but losses need to count for something, right?
Texas A&M, meanwhile, can finish 8-1 with a victory at Tennessee. While the Aggies' upset of Florida is slightly less valuable after the Gators' letdown to LSU, it's a high-quality win and more impressive than anything from Clemson so far.
On the other hand, Texas A&M lost to Alabama by 28 and didn't play well opposite bad Vanderbilt and Mississippi State teams. The second-half comeback to beat six-win Auburn is similar to Clemson's against six-win Boston College, too, and Clemson has no Vandy- or Mississippi State-type of bad showing.
So, which is better? Clemson's strong year with two losses to a playoff team, or Texas A&M's mostly good season with one dreadful loss to a playoff team?
Before you answer, consider that the selection committee's protocol places value on a conference title when debating "comparable" teams. And if Iowa State is comparable to Clemson and Texas A&M, it adds another element to a messy situation.
Iowa State has two losses to non-playoff contenders. Yet the Cyclones could be the only league winner among the trifecta if they defeat Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship Game.
As with Clemson, though, losses need to count for something.
Iowa State fell to Louisiana-Lafayette—which deserves to be ranked much higher, but that's a different story—and Oklahoma State. Both are included in the latest CFP ranking, yet nobody expects a reward for the most losses to Top 25 teams.
There is no perfect solution to this dilemma.
The committee is not seriously considering No. 9 Cincinnati, an 8-0 team averaging a 25.9-point margin of victory. The only teams to surpass 17 points on the Bearcats are Austin Peay—because of two garbage-time touchdowns—and UCF.
Taking down No. 23 Tulsa in the AAC Championship Game would give Cincinnati a fifth victory over six-win teams. None of Clemson, Texas A&M or Iowa State has more than three. But that doesn't matter now, so it won't by Sunday, either.
Instead, the committee is staring at the possibility of choosing between three programs with glaring negatives.
And if Florida—which for some illogical reason is ahead of Cincinnati after a loss to LSU—upsets Alabama in the SEC title game, maybe even the No. 7 Gators have a chance.
The most straightforward outcome is also the most likely. Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State are favored to win Saturday, leaving Notre Dame as the non-champion to compare with Texas A&M and potentially Iowa State. But the Irish can cling to victories over Clemson and North Carolina.
Plus, as much as Texas A&M fans want to leapfrog Ohio State, the Buckeyes are positioned for a Top 15 win. Since the Aggies aren't ahead now, beating Tennessee won't help when Ohio State plays Northwestern and can win a conference title.
Clemson losing to Notre Dame opens the door to possibilities. But if the Tigers win, Selection Day will be anticlimactic.
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