UFC 256 Predictions: Bleacher Report Staff Main Card Picks
UFC 256 takes place on Saturday at UFC APEX in Las Vegas.
The main event features men's flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo making the fastest turnaround in UFC championship history after stopping Alex Perez just three weeks ago at UFC 255.
Now, the fast and furious finisher hopes to make mincemeat out of top-ranked contender Brandon Moreno to end 2020 with a bang.
But there are plenty of other big fights scheduled for UFC 256. Most notably, fight fans are expecting a barnburner when lightweight contenders Tony Ferguson and Charles Oliveira meet in the co-main event.
Before you tune into the final UFC pay-per-view card of the year this weekend, be sure to read through our staff predictions for the main card, and leave your own in the comments, too.
Junior Dos Santos vs. Ciryl Gane
1 of 5
Tom Taylor: A year after his win over hot-and-cold heavyweight prospect Tanner Boser, Ciryl Gane is now slated to fight a former UFC heavyweight champion in Junior dos Santos. It's a big step up in competition, but I think he's up to the task.
Gane has long shown the qualities of a future heavyweight title challenger. I mean, this guy won the TKO heavyweight title—a title that means something up here in Canada—in his third pro fight. He'll need to be careful against Dos Santos, who still packs a wallop at 36, but I see him winning this one emphatically. Since joining the UFC, the Frenchman has shown a predilection for submissions, but this time around, I suspect he'll use his absurd speed and firepower to put a beating on the deteriorating former champ.
Gane, KO, Rd. 2
Kelsey McCarson: Gane vs. Dos Santos seems like the kind of fight you put together if you have like 60 cuts or so to make on your roster and you're hoping to have justifiable reasons to move older fan-favorites like Dos Santos out the door for good.
Gane, 30, is one of the brightest prospects in the heavyweight division, and he's likely to get the job done against the former heavyweight champ. While I did say there were some decent reasons to back Dos Santos on the UFC betting market because of the potential high payout, in a straight pick'em fight, you've got to roll with the younger and stronger Gane.
Gane via unanimous decision
Scott Harris: Remember the phrase "stacked card"? I remember when cards used to be stacked all the time. That was back when cars were still operated by hand-crank. But UFC 256 makes a pretty strong case for stackedness thanks to its deep main card.
It's true that JDS isn't what he used to be, but he's lost three straight by knockout. Gane is more of a grappler than a knockout artist, though. Will that give Cigano a reprieve? From a knockout, yes. From losing, no. The great Dos Santos is just the latest reminder that MMA careers don't usually end pretty.
Gane via unanimous decision
Lyle Fitzsimmons: I'm a sentimental middle-aged guy. So, sure, I'd love to envision a scenario where a 36-year-old who's lost three straight fights by knockout wakes up the echoes and turns aside the challenge of an unbeaten opponent who's bigger, longer and, at this stage of his career, more athletic. But those sorts of things just don't happen often enough to anticipate them. I think Scott is spot-on correct in that it won't come by knockout, but yes, it will come.
Gane via unanimous decision
Kevin Holland vs. Ronaldo Souza
2 of 5
Tom Taylor: Like the Gane vs. Dos Santos matchup, this one feels like a fight between a guy on the way up and a guy on the way out. Kevin Holland, 28, has shoehorned four-straight victories into 2020 and just debuted in the UFC middleweight rankings. The 41-year-old Souza, meanwhile, has lost his last two.
It's not hard to picture a world where Souza locks up one of Holland's limbs and forces a tap, but I think it's more likely Holland uses his speed and range to light the former Strikeforce champ up on the feet. Souza has recently shown a willingness to engage in gunfights, and this time out, I think that's going to hurt him.
Holland, TKO, Rd. 3
Kelsey McCarson: I think Tom is on the right track with his idea that one of these guys is on the way up and the other one is headed in the opposite direction. Holland is having a standout year. While Souza is a legendary veteran, Holland has everything going his way right now, and I think this victory sets him up for an even bigger 2021.
Besides, Souza might also figure into the UFC's plans to trim down its roster. Why else put him in this fight anyway?
Holland, KO, Rd. 2
Scott Harris: Call it UFC 256: Quick Turnaround. Figueiredo is the obvious example in the main event, but Holland won't even have six weeks between contests. He's used to it, though; with this being his fifth fight of 2020, no other UFC competitor has been more active this year.
As Tom mentioned, the UFC is clearly hoping to put Holland over by giving the brash young scrapper a big but beatable name in Souza. But I say not so fast, my friend. Holland hasn't faced anyone near the level of Souza. The crocodile needs a win, and he'll return to his bread and butter—that world-class jiu-jitsu—to get it, sinking his claws into Holland and dragging the young buck into the muck, where the smack talk doesn't flow as freely.
Souza, submission, Rd. 2
Lyle Fitzsimmons: Younger, stronger, longer. Wait, didn't we just do this one? Oh, guess not. Turns out, there's another fight in which a guy who's particularly long in the tooth—in this case, every bit of 41—will fight a guy with loads of momentum and every physical advantage. And once again, the older guy is arriving in the midst of a slide. In Souza's case, meaning precisely zero wins in the last 25 months. Holland, meanwhile, is 4-0 this year and has all the skill needed to back up his smack.
Holland, KO, Rd. 2
Renato Moicano vs. Rafael Fiziev
3 of 5
Tom Taylor: Tiger muay thai product Rafael Fiziev looked impressive in his recent decision wins over Alex White and Marc Diakiese, but I feel like he's in over his head against Renato Moicano.
Moicano, a former featherweight, has lost three times, but his losses have come against world-class talents in Brian Ortega, Jose Aldo and Chan Sung Jung, and all of those defeats can be attributed, at least in part, to his willingness to bang it out with his rivals. If he has any fight IQ whatsoever, he'll refrain from doing that with Fiziev, who has more than a few highlight-reel knockouts on his record and could take this fight to the mat.
I'm not overly confident it will happen, but I think this time Moicano plays to his strengths, drags the action south and locks up one of his patented rear-naked chokes—just like he did against Damir Hadzovic earlier this year.
Moicano, submission, Rd. 1
Kelsey McCarson: Fiziev is an aggressive muay thai practitioner, but he's also adept at pacing himself enough to go the distance. As Tom pointed out, Moicano's losses were all to quality opponents, but I think Fiziev is on his way to becoming that type of fighter, too.
I like Fiziev to keep the action where he wants it on his way to a spectacular knockout win. Fiziev is a bully on his feet, and he'll get the job done by overwhelming Moicano with powerful and precise strikes.
Fiziev, TKO, Rd. 2
Scott Harris: Striker-grappler matchup incoming! Fiziev knows how to knock people out, and he has a nice 2-1 record in his early UFC career. But Moicano looked to be on another level after he jumped up to lightweight, needing only 44 seconds to submit Damir Hadzovic.
I'm with Tom on the outcome, but while two first-round subs in a row would be amazing, I don't think he'll win quite so emphatically. Still, his resume at lightweight and featherweight alike shows he has the tools to show Fiziev the door, at least for now.
Moicano, submission, Rd. 2
Lyle Fitzsimmons: There's nothing like a perceived slight to get a guy motivated. Moicano was admittedly peeved when his top-15 ranking at featherweight didn't translate when he arrived at 155 pounds, but it didn't seem to hinder him in an easy night's work against Hadzovic in March.
While Fiziev is a worthwhile enough favorite, it's not as if his striking chops have devastated UFC competition. He's won two straight fights, but both by decision, and unless he lands big here, he's no sure thing.
Moicano, submission, Rd. 3
Tony Ferguson vs. Charles Oliveira
4 of 5
Tom Taylor: I can hardly believe it myself, but I'm picking Charles Oliveira in this one.
Tony Ferguson is one of the best lightweights ever, but as I try to forecast the outcome of this fight, I keep picturing him getting pummeled into an unrecognizable mass of purple flesh by Justin Gaethje back in May and getting dropped by Anthony Pettis a little further back in his career. Then I picture Oliveira's sizzling 2019 knockout wins over Nik Lentz and Jared Gordon, and well, I guess I just have a feeling about this one.
I think this fight's going to be crazy from the opening bell, and somewhere amid a gyre of flailing limbs, Oliveira is going to land a fight-ender.
Oliveira, KO, Rd. 2
Kelsey McCarson: Ferguson got beat up in his last fight, and it's going to be important for him to get back into the win column this weekend if he hopes to stay on pace with the rest of the 155-pound stalwarts. The problem with that will be that Oliveira is a lot better fighter than he's usually given credit for being, and Ferguson is probably jumping into way too deep of waters for what appears to be a high-risk affair with Oliveira.
While I agree with Tom that Oliveira wins this fight, I don't think he'll stop Ferguson. Instead, he'll win this one on the scorecards in a wide enough way that people will start to wonder whether Ferguson will ever be the same fighter again.
Oliveira via unanimous decision
Scott Harris: I've been beating the Oliveira drum for years, but this is Tony Ferguson. I imagine Ferguson's been in a froth since that loss in a Fight of the Year candidate with Gaethje. But while Tom has a hard time believing Ferguson will rebound, I have a hard time believing he won't. Sure, most people wouldn't come back from that kind of brutality, but Ferguson is not most people. I think he puts Oliveira clean out.
Ferguson, KO, Rd. 1
Lyle Fitzsimmons: Could it really happen that quickly? Can a guy who some were suggesting, just seven months ago, was a legit threat to Khabib Nurmagomedov actually lose to Oliveira? Call me crazy, but the answer here is yes. Ferguson's comprehensively violent loss to Gaethje was precisely the type from which some fighters never fully recover. And to come off it directly into a tussle with a jiu-jitsu ace who's reeled off eight straight finishes? Well, let's just say it's not ideal matchmaking.
Oliveira via split decision
Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno
5 of 5
Tom Taylor: UFC flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo has shown such a propensity for violent finishes that it's difficult to imagine anybody surviving to the final bell with him—let alone beating him. That said, I think Moreno is capable of weathering the storm.
The Mexican title challenger has never been finished in 24 pro fights, despite fighting a long list of proven finishers. His defense and resilience should keep him in this fight till the end—but he might wish it didn't.
I see Figueiredo bombing Moreno on the feet and threatening with submissions on the mat for the vast majority of this fight. The champ, who endures a tough cut down to the flyweight limit, might fade a bit in the final round or two, but it won't matter by that point. He'll have more than earned his victory.
Figueiredo via unanimous decision
Kelsey McCarson: Having a good defense is one thing, but keeping this version of men's flyweight king Figueiredo from finishing you where you stand is quite another.
Look, Moreno is a solid fighter and a great competitor. As Tom noted, he's never been finished before, and he's the 125-pound division's No. 1 contender for some good reasons.
But Figueiredo has reached another level. He's become the best finisher in the sport in my opinion, so I don't think Moreno has much hope for surviving the onslaught that is about to befall him.
Figueiredo is just too much for anyone right in the 125-pound division. I like the Brazilian to keep his streak going by stopping Moreno in the first round.
Figueiredo, KO, Rd. 1
Scott Harris: It's easy to write off Moreno as a relative no-name, but that's simply not the case. In his last three, he stopped the Kai Kara France hype train, handled a respected veteran in Jussier Formiga and knocked out Brandon Royval in the first round. That's pretty good. And as fun and exciting and good as Figueiredo is, he's no Demetrious Johnson, at least not yet. So what we need to do right now is, we need to sound the upset alarms. Moreno wins and plunges the flyweight division back into darkness. And new.
Moreno via unanimous decision
Lyle Fitzsimmons: Did he save the flyweight division? Maybe. Depends on who you ask. But if the question is whether Figueiredo has made himself a must-watch at 125 pounds, the answer is a stone-cold yes.
The guy terrorizes people. He punishes people. And what's even better? He seems to love his work. So much so that he'll return for another main event three weeks after plowing through a single-digit contender. Moreno seems sturdy enough to weather a storm, but it'll be too sophisticated and too brutal.
Figueiredo, submission, Rd. 2
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