Yankees Beware: DJ LeMahieu Must Be Dodgers' No. 1 Free-Agent Target
Imagine Derek Jeter signing with the Atlanta Braves during the 1990s.
In terms of on-field production at least, that's how detrimental it would be for the New York Yankees to lose DJ LeMahieu to the Los Angeles Dodgers this offseason, and there's a real possibility it could happen.
Fresh off a two-year, $24 million contract that may go down as the best free-agent signing in the illustrious history of the Yankees, LeMahieu is one of the most sought-after free agents on the market.
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The 32-year-old hit .364/.421/.590 to lead the American League with a 177 OPS+ last season and also became the first player in MLB history to win a batting title in both leagues.
He finished fourth in AL MVP voting in 2019 and third in the balloting last season, and his 8.7 WAR since the start of 2019 ranks seventh among position players'.
TLDR: DJ LeMahieu is really, really good.
Even after he declined a qualifying offer from the Yankees at the start of the offseason—a procedural move that was expected by all involved—many still viewed it as a foregone conclusion that he would re-up.
Many still do, including teammate Luke Voit.
"I think DJ will be a Yankee," Voit told Brendan Kuty of NJ Advance Media on Wednesday. "If I had to put money on that, I think he will."
With November having turned to December and LeMahieu still unsigned, however, doubt has begun to creep in, and Jeff Passan of ESPN set the scene Monday:
"The notion that DJ LeMahieu's return to the New York Yankees is a fait accompli ignores the strong market that has developed around him. It's not just the Yankees and Mets. Toronto is in. The reigning champion Los Angeles Dodgers could slot LeMahieu at third base. There are others.
"All recognize that they're going to need to outbid the Yankees, who have made LeMahieu their clear No. 1 priority this winter. New York has plenty more to do—figure out if Gleyber Torres really is the long-term solution at shortstop; get Gary Sanchez back to form; improve the rotation—and is trying to do so while remaining under the luxury-tax threshold. It's an awfully difficult needle to thread for general manager Brian Cashman."
Even speculatively, the mere mention of the Dodgers as in the running for LeMahieu has to be unsettling for the Yankees and, frankly, any of the other 28 teams across baseball.
On paper, the Dodgers have no glaring needs.
Third base will be a hole if Justin Turner walks, and they will have to add a few bullpen pieces with veterans Blake Treinen and Jake McGee set to depart via free agency. They could also use a left-handed hitting outfielder to help bring some balance if Joc Pederson signs elsewhere, and Swiss army knife Enrique Hernandez will surely be missed if he doesn't re-sign.
According to Spotrac, the Dodgers have $180.5 million on the books for the 2021 season, which is well below the nearly $260 million they spent in 2017. Even after they address the above, they should have no trouble fitting LeMahieu onto the payroll.
MLB Trade Rumors projected a four-year, $68 million contract for him at the start of the offseason.
LeMahieu would only further solidify L.A.'s standing as the team to beat, and it's not hard to envision the fit given his defensive versatility.
As Passan mentioned, the Dodgers could target LeMahieu as a straight replacement for the 36-year-old Turner. The former has played 104 games at the hot corner in his career, including 63 over the past two seasons.
If Turner re-signs, LeMahieu could just as easily fit at second base after Gavin Lux failed to stake his claim to the position despite entering 2020 as a National League Rookie of the Year favorite.
Lux, 23, was sent to the alternate site to begin the season and never hit his stride once he was finally added to the roster, finishing with a .175/.246/.349 line in 69 plate appearances.
Disappointing numbers aside, he is just a year removed from hitting .392/.478/.719 with 35 extra-base hits in 49 games at Triple-A. His upside is clear, but a team in win-now mode might feel more comfortable entrusting someone else with the starting job until he proves himself.
Now let's say Turner re-signs and Lux comes out swinging in April to claim a starting job.
LeMahieu could still play every day in a super-utility role, which is exactly what he did with the Yankees in 2019, playing 75 games at second base, 52 games at third base and 40 games at first base en route to 655 plate appearances.
Looking beyond 2021, LeMahieu would provide the Dodgers with insurance if shortstop Corey Seager leaves in free agency.
In that scenario, Lux could slide over to his natural position of shortstop with LeMahieu handling second base and giving the team at least one elite offensive middle infielder.
Just like that, the Dodgers would be set up for the next several years—even without the 2020 World Series MVP.
It's simply something the Yankees cannot let happen.
In LeMahieu's two seasons with the Bronx Bombers, the Yankees went 122-73 (.626) with him in the lineup compared to 14-13 (.519) without him. There's not a player on the roster who has been more important to the team's success.
The Gerrit Cole signing last offseason snapped a string of disappointing winters for Yankees fans. Losing LeMahieu would be the biggest disappointment yet, even if New York effectively addresses the starting rotation.
The Dodgers (+425) have the best odds to win the 2021 World Series, according to DraftKings, just ahead of the Yankees (+550).
That helps illustrate the impact LeMahieu would have in altering the balance of power between the two teams, and it's why he should be the Dodgers' No. 1 target this offseason.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference.
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