Adam Kramer's College Football Locks and Top Bets for Week 15
I needed that. No, we needed that.
Granted, my performance in last week's Locks could've been better. But after a rough patch of outcomes and a few consecutive weeks of heartache and shame, Week 14 provided the bounce I was seeking. Overall, I went 5-3. For the season, I am 38-36.
Now, I am not asking for a parade after going 5-3. If you want to coordinate one, that would be just fine. Parades are great. But how about we save that for when things really pick up?
Before we dive into Week 15—seriously, how bizarre is it that it's Week 15?—let's explore the good and bad from the previous installment.
The Good: Indiana
This point spread just felt off. Too many points. Even with quarterback Michael Penix Jr. out for the season because of a torn ACL, giving the Hoosiers 14.5 points against Wisconsin felt downright bizarre. My only regret? Not playing the Hoosiers on the moneyline. That would've been a fine cash. As is, this was a comfortable cover in a 14-6 Indiana win.
The Bad: Alabama-LSU Under 68.5
I was 5-2 heading into the final wager of the weekend. My sights were set on 6-2. I thought Alabama would comfortably crush LSU, which it did 55-17, although I didn't think this game would feature video game scoring. Well, it became clear after about seven minutes that I was incorrect. My bad.
We are running out of weeks. Don't panic. Let's celebrate the games we have and not let any opportunities go to waste.
Here are the Week 15 selections, using point spreads provided by DraftKings. The parade starts now.
San Diego State at BYU (-16)
I would imagine the cross-country flight home from Coastal Carolina was the opposite of fun. Probably very quiet. You don't lose a heartbreaker like that—what a beautiful football game—and not feel the impact for a while.
Sure, you could play the hangover angle. You could take the points and assume BYU will be licking its wounds a week after. I get it. I've played that angle plenty.
But San Diego State will not be able to mimic the brilliant offensive game plan that Coastal Carolina delivered in its 22-17 win. That should go without saying. As a result, the Aztecs won't control the ball for nearly 38 minutes. Also pretty obvious.
The Chanticleers were pretty much perfect last week. That doesn't mean BYU isn't an outstanding football team with a wealth of talent and an NFL-caliber quarterback. And assuming that hangover doesn't linger too long, they'll show that in a big way.
Coastal Carolina (-14) at Troy
Yes, both teams from last weekend's epic have a home in this week's picks. And yes, we like both to win big.
If we're going to question whether a losing squad will suffer from a hangover, we can openly question whether the same will happen to the winning one. Coastal Carolina might still be celebrating. (As it should be.) And this line feels a tad on the light side, all things considered. With that said, I simply cannot go the contrarian route. I tried that a few weeks ago against Coastal, and it ended poorly.
The outcome of that game is not influencing this decision. Having watched this team closely for the better part of a month, I clearly see the Chanticleers are one of the best football teams in the country.
With a major bowl game in sight, there's no letdown coming. That Coastal Carolina offense is too good and a joy to watch. The dream season marches on.
USC at UCLA (+3)
Chip Kelly has somewhat quietly stabilized what felt like a sinking ship at UCLA. The outcome of this game will showcase just how steady things are, although the Bruins have won three games and could easily be 5-0. The losses to Colorado and Oregon—both on the road—came by a combined nine points.
On the other hand, USC is on fire. The Trojans clobbered Washington State on Sunday. (Yes, it was on Sunday. This year is a batch of never-ending weird.) While UCLA could be unbeaten if not for a few close losses, 4-0 USC has turned those pivotal moments into wins.
The Trojans have covered their last three games against the spread. The Bruins have covered their last four. While the point spread will have many who watched USC dominate over the weekend immediately lay the points, I like the other side.
It's a smattering of observation and a dash of contrarianism. Kelly finally gets a signature win.
Utah (+2) at Colorado
Let's stay in the Pac-12. Before I tell you why I'm picking against Colorado, take a moment to appreciate this team. The offseason hiring of Karl Dorrell to replace Mel Tucker was met with internet jokes and cynicism. The Buffaloes are undefeated at 4-0 and one of the best stories in college football.
With those kudos out of the way, I like Utah. Good stories are good stories, but we're here to pick winners.
Utah is much, much better than a 1-2 team. Pardon the cliched sports-writer expression.
The Utes' loss to USC doesn't seem so bad. And given the pair of COVID-19-related cancellations this program faced at the start of its season, it's no surprise to see a slow start. We will witness a much more polished, complete game against the Buffs.
Utes plus the points. Utes on the moneyline.
Oklahoma State (-5.5) at Baylor
We won by fading Oklahoma State a week ago. This week, we're doing the opposite.
The Pokes' game against TCU was wild, and it felt like it could have swung in either direction. Things have not been trending particularly well for Oklahoma State of late, and that 29-22 loss was the last step on a rough path. Part of the reason the team's lost three of five is a product of playing better opponents. The other part? Oklahoma state hasn't played nearly as well as it did at the start of the year.
For the Pokes to win, we don't need that early-season version of this team to show up. A really good effort should be enough to get past Baylor, which put up an admirable fight at Oklahoma in a 27-14 loss last week. This year has not been kind to new head coach Dave Aranda or the Bears, and the 2-6 record speaks to that.
Oklahoma State's defense is still solid. Baylor has the nation's No. 84 scoring offense.
This has the look of an ugly, low-scoring game. Oklahoma State 27, Baylor 17.
Other Plays on the Card
Illinois (+14.5) at Northwestern
Its record (2-4) isn't ideal, but Illinois is playing inspired football. The Illini had Iowa on the ropes before being outclassed in the second half last week, and we could see a similar outcome Saturday. Northwestern isn't bad despite its bad loss to Michigan State. Still, Illinois could push its opponent yet again.
North Carolina at Miami (Over 67)
A fun football game. That's what we're in store for when North Carolina travels to Miami in a wildly intriguing ACC matchup. Two great quarterbacks. Two great offenses. A game that could be high in scoring and intrigue. Sit back, relax and watch Sam Howell and D'Eriq King go to work. (And hopefully score a bunch of points.)
Nevada at San Jose State (Over 58)
This is the best game no one is talking about heading into the weekend, and it feels like it has a chance to deliver. Nevada is 6-1. San Jose State is 5-0. Both offenses average more than 30 points per game, and I could see them going back and forth quite a bit. You're going to want to see this one. It has that kind of vibe.
Adam Kramer covers college football for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @KegsnEggs. Lines accurate as of 4 p.m. ET Wednesday.
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