Biggest Surprises and Disappointments of the 2020 College Football Season
Predictions are never perfect. In any given college football season, there will be a variety of unanticipated storylines.
Notre Dame—a temporarily official ACC team—is undefeated, and so are both Cincinnati (not listed here but worthy of praise) and Coastal Carolina. The Fighting Irish and Chanticleers are among the listed surprises, all of which are positive.
Among the disappointments are LSU, Michigan and Penn State struggling in this unusual 2020 campaign.
The list is specific to on-field matters, so a coronavirus-impacted absence is not considered. Additionally, it's very subjective! My opinions did not perfectly match yours, and we certainly agreed on something that another person did not.
Surprise: Coastal Carolina's Historic Season
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To fully appreciate the incredible story of Coastal Carolina, it requires a history lesson.
The program made its debut in 2003 and achieved decent success at the Football Championship Subdivision level. It rose as high as No. 1 in the national rankings and reached the playoffs six times but advanced no further than the quarterfinals.
In 2017, CCU officially joined the Football Bowl Subdivision as a member of the Sun Belt. But in a league generally considered the low end of the FBS, the Chanticleers—pronounced Shont, for the record—had managed 3-9, 5-7 and 5-7 records. Neat story and a building program, but not a truly competitive team.
Until now.
Coastal Carolina is 10-0, flirting with a Top 10 ranking in the College Football Playoff poll and a potential Sun Belt championship. The Chants—who have defeated Sun Belt powers Louisiana and Appalachian State, along with then-undefeated BYU—close the campaign with Troy and then Louisiana in the conference title game.
Within the next few years, head coach Jamey Chadwell will be a candidate for more prestigious jobs. But until then, Coastal Carolina is on track to become a Sun Belt force with national respect.
Disappointment: Big 12's Rapid Fall from Playoff Contention
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In their respective openers, Iowa State and Kansas State fell to Sun Belt teams. Oklahoma and Texas both lost consecutive games early on. Oklahoma State started 4-0 but dropped three of the next five, including a 28-point loss at Oklahoma.
Before the release of the first College Football Playoff rankings, the league already lacked a national title contender.
At least it was efficient?
To be completely fair, there is a chaos scenario in which Iowa State or Oklahoma has a chance to make the playoff. But it's exceedingly unlikely. And even if the Cyclones or Sooners stumble into the CFP party, their expectations to win a game would be about zero.
Although one power conference is bound to miss a four-team playoff every season, the Big 12 hardly threatened in 2020.
Surprise: Kyle Trask's Rise
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Kyle Trask had a solid 2019 season after replacing an injured Feleipe Franks. Trask guided Florida to an 11-2 record, tossing 25 touchdowns to seven interceptions with a decent 8.3 yards per attempt.
The Gators entered the season as a second-tier contender with a Georgia-sized roadblock standing in their way. Especially when you consider the Big Ten and Pac-12 weren't expected to play, Florida had a definite path to the playoff.
What we didn't know, however, is that path featured Trask moving from a good quarterback to a Heisman Trophy favorite. He's averaging 360.3 yards per game with 38 touchdowns to three picks.
Perhaps the most impressive part of Trask's development is the Gators needed to replace four of their six most-productive receivers from 2019. While tight end Kyle Pitts has surpassed high expectations, the biggest change is Kadarius Toney progressed from a fun idea to a high-volume playmaker.
Florida closes the regular season with LSU before challenging Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. Trask will be especially pivotal in the latter matchup.
Win both, and the Gators—thanks to Trask—are a playoff team.
Disappointment: LSU's Disastrous Year
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Considering the production and personnel LSU needed to replace, any thoughts of a repeat championship seemed unreasonable. But it wasn't supposed to be this bad, either.
LSU began the season with a 44-34 loss to Mississippi State, which has since averaged 14.6 points. LSU's only victories are over programs that have fired a coach (Vanderbilt, South Carolina) or hadn't won an SEC game in 2018 or 2019 (Arkansas).
Any number of factors can be pointed to as problems. LSU has started three quarterbacks, the running game is highly inefficient, the defense has largely been a sieve, etc.
Alabama put an exclamation point on the troubles with a 55-17 demolition of the Tigers. At 38 points, it was the largest margin of victory in the series in 95 years.
In all likelihood, LSU will rebound nicely in 2021. The level of talent on this roster and in the recruiting class is excellent.
But this is a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad season.
Surprise: Northwestern Going 1st-to-Worst-to-1st
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Two years ago, Northwestern won the Big Ten's West Division. Last season, the Wildcats finished last. So, naturally, Northwestern is right back atop the division in 2020.
While the defense has excelled, Northwestern's two key improvements have come on offense. Pat Fitzgerald moved on from longtime coordinator Mick McCall to Mike Bajakian, and the Wildcats turned to Indiana transfer Peyton Ramsey at quarterback.
The result is a 5-1 record—including wins over Wisconsin and Iowa—that is worthy of the West Division crown. Northwestern officially sealed the title Saturday.
Ohio State will be favored, and likely quite heavily, in the Big Ten Championship Game (assuming it makes the title game). But it's no small accomplishment for the Wildcats to recover from a 3-9 season so quickly.
Disappointment: Michigan, Penn State Flailing
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Michigan opened the season with a seemingly superb win over Minnesota. Penn State fell to Indiana, but alarms weren't sounding after that overtime loss.
How quickly the panic level changes.
Since then, Michigan's only victory is a three-overtime survival at Rutgers. The perception of Jim Harbaugh has shifted from unstable to hideous, while James Franklin's isn't a whole lot better. Penn State has only defeated Michigan and, well, Rutgers.
Yes, a technicality may prevent Ohio State from appearing in the Big Ten Championship Game. Yet there's no question the Buckeyes are the premier team in the East Division.
The enormous gap between the Buckeyes and both Michigan and Penn State has only widened in 2020. And right now, it doesn't look like either chasing program can correct it soon.
Surprise: Notre Dame's Undefeated Regular Season
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While we fully anticipated Notre Dame would make the ACC Championship Game, an undefeated regular season felt unlikely.
Mostly because Clemson was on the schedule.
Look, it's absurd to not accept Trevor Lawrence's absence as a factor. If the Irish didn't have Ian Book in that matchup, they'd be saying the same thing. Here's the fun part: Notre Dame might win the rematch anyway! This team is really good!
Book and a talented offensive line gave the Irish a strong foundation, but they needed to completely retool at the skill positions in 2020. However, an elite defense braced Notre Dame early and—while it remains the strength of the team—bought time for a new-look offense to execute at a much higher level.
Without question, the Irish want to silence any critics and earn an ACC title. Yet it's entirely possible they've already sealed a place in the College Football Playoff, no matter the result with Clemson.
Disappointment: Florida State, Louisville Among Worst in ACC
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Louisville put together a superb 8-5 record in Scott Satterfield's debut season. And with a bunch of returning talent on offense, the Cardinals entered 2020 with moderately high expectations.
Florida State had apparent flaws and was coming off a rough offseason, but first-year coach Mike Norvell brought a reputation of success.
Three months later, they have combined for five wins.
In simplest terms, Louisville has struggled more than expected offensively with a defense that has only improved from awful to pretty bad. Florida State, meanwhile, has hardly been competitive beyond a stunning upset of North Carolina. The 'Noles have losses to Miami by 42, Louisville by 32 and Pitt by 24.
Both programs are facing a long road to relevancy.
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