UFC Fight Night 184: Smith vs. Clark Odds, Schedule, Predictions

Alex Ballentine@Ballentine_AlexFeatured ColumnistNovember 28, 2020

UFC Fight Night 184: Smith vs. Clark Odds, Schedule, Predictions

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    John Locher/Associated Press

    With the heavyweight tilt between Curtis Blaydes and Derrick Lewis a late scratch, Anthony Smith and Devin Clark step in as the headliners of UFC Fight Night 184 from the UFC's APEX Facility in Las Vegas. 

    The light heavyweights will take center stage to conclude a 10-fight card that mostly features up-and-coming talent. 

    Fights getting canceled at the last minute is par for the course in 2020. The light heavyweight scrap should provide an intriguing main event in its stead, though. Smith has proved he's a top-tier 205er, while Clark is looking to have a breakout performance after stifling Alonzo Menifield in his last fight. 

    Here's a look at the complete offering along with the latest odds and predictions for the biggest fights. 

Fight Card and Odds

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    Frank Franklin II/Associated Press

    Main Card (ESPN+ at 10 p.m. ET)

    • Anthony Smith (-139) vs. Devin Clark (+115)
    • Miguel Baeza (-175) vs Takashi Sato (+140)
    • Josh Parisian (-200) vs Parker Porter (+160)
    • Spike Carlyle (-177) vs Bill Algeo (+140)
    • Ashlee Evans-Smith (-137) vs Norma Dumont (+110)
    • Jonathan Pearce (+245) vs Kai Kamaka (-335)

    Prelims (ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET)

    • Martin Day (-167) vs Anderson dos Santos (+135)
    • Gina Mazany (-200) vs Rachael Ostovich (+160)
    • Su Mudaerji (-335) vs Malcolm Gordon (+250)
    • Luke Sanders (-155) vs Nate Maness (+125)

    Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Smith vs. Clark

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    John Locher/Associated Press

    Since coming to the UFC in 2016, Devin Clark's 10 fights have only gone one of two ways: Either he wins a decision or he is finished. All six of his wins have come by way of decision, all four of his losses have either been from knockout or submission. 

    Clark's success comes down to a matter of discipline. If he can devote himself to being a wrestler that looks to negate his opponent's every advantage, he typically wins. If he gets seduced into a slugfest, it doesn't go well. 

    In Smith, he gets an opponent whose years of wear and tear may be getting to him. This will be Smith's 50th career bout. Back-to-back losses to Glover Teixeira and Aleksander Rakic have not looked good for Lionheart. 

    But he is still a strong action fighter, and few Smith fights are ever boring, which doesn't bode well for Clark. His best shot at victory is to make things boring. 

    Over the course of five rounds, it's hard to see Clark sticking to the right game plan to win. He either gets wild with strikes or makes a mistake in the grappling that Smith can take advantage of. 

    Prediction: Smith via fourth-round submission

Baeza vs. Sato

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    Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

    The new co-main event for the evening features two welterweight prospects who have made their names so far by picking on the elder statesmen of the division. 

    To date, Takashi Sato's best win of his career was a second-round knockout of 37-year-old Ben Saunders. His most recent victory came against Jason Witt after a submission loss to Belal Muhammad. Sato won both fights by way of knockout, showing he has the power to dispatch of opponents too old or too unskilled to match up with him. 

    Miguel Baeza is undefeated, but his crowning achievement thus far is taking out Matt Brown. The 39-year-old Brown doesn't have much chin left at this point, so that doesn't mean what it used to. 

    This should offer both fighters an opportunity to showcase their talents—of which defense isn't included. Both are aggressive strikers and should bring it in a bout that could easily win Fight of the Night honors. 

    At 6'2", Baeza is slightly longer than the 5'11" Sato, which could be an advantage, but this won't be the first time Sato has faced a length disparity. He'll know how to close the distance, and even though Baeza has shown solid footwork in his short time in the cage, Sato is the more experienced of the two. 

    This should be a fun one, but Sato might have the knowhow to hand Baeza his first loss. 

    Prediction: Sato via decision

Parisian vs. Porter

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    John Raoux/Associated Press

    The big men get a chance to shine in a prospect vs. prospect fight among two fighters who tip the scales at the heavyweight limit. 

    Parker Porter has been on the regional scene so long his first loss was to former light heavyweight champion Jon Jones in 2008 before Bones even signed with the UFC. After years of going through that grind, he finally got his UFC debut in August, when he was unceremoniously knocked out by Chris Daukaus. 

    Now, it appears he's being set up to get knocked down again. 

    Josh Parisian is set to make his own UFC debut on this card riding a six-fight win streak that includes a first-round knockout win on Dana White's Contender Series. 

    Parisian has power. That might be enough to give him the nod over Porter. The veteran is a heavy wrestler who can be dangerous if he gets top position, but Parisian might not have to defend those takedowns for long. 

    Porter already showed he's vulnerable to big shots in his knockout loss of a debut. History could repeat itself here as Parisian will look to showcase his powerful striking early. 

    Prediction: Parisian via first-round TKO

         

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