2021 NBA Draft Buzz: Scouts See 3 Prospects Who Would've Been 2020 No. 1 Pick
NBA scouts aren't taking any college basketball matchup for granted this season, knowing they'll likely wind up having less film to watch on these prospects relative to any other year. The cancellation of Saturday's Gonzaga-Baylor game was a huge disappointment for scouts who hoped to see Jalen Suggs (Gonzaga) and Jared Butler (Baylor) share a court.
Scouts already feel as if they're behind on the freshmen; the McDonald's All-American Game, Nike Hoop Summit and Jordan Brand Classic were all canceled.
But it's starting to seem like this could be a good year for rebuilding NBA teams to prioritize young players' development over winning meaningless games that hurt their lottery position.
The top of the 2021 draft board certainly looks stronger than 2020's.
Multiple freshmen would have gone No. 1 in 2020 draft
The excitement around the draft feels like it's back. Scouts joked months ago about fast-forwarding to 2021 during a prolonged 2020 process that lacked obvious star power to study. And now that we're here, evaluating new talent, most top prospects are delivering early.
NBA talent evaluators have already pinpointed at least three prospects who could have gone No. 1 over Anthony Edwards, including Jalen Green, despite the fact he hasn't played a game yet with the G League Ignite.
Oklahoma State's Cade Cunningham and USC's Evan Mobley are the other two who've generated the most reaction when discussing the class' No. 1 prospect. But other freshmen have also emerged in the conversation, and it has scouts feeling good about the depth of the 2021 class.
Cade Cunningham is the real deal, but scouts sound open-minded about top overall prospect
Unlike last draft, this one has a consensus No. 1 overall favorite. Cade Cunningham is the most popular answer. I've had him No. 1 for 2021 since his junior year of high school. After four games, I still firmly believe there is a gap between him and the rest of the pack.
Outside of FIBA play, I've had more opportunities to see Cunningham live than scouts for NBA teams who are barred from high school gyms.
Scouts I've spoken to acknowledge that Cunningham is starting the year as the favorite. However, the No. 1 overall debate isn't a closed case for every scout I've spoken to. Some need more convincing before proclaiming Cunningham a lock, particularly given Mobley's start and the excitement over Green's superior explosiveness and developing skill.
But so far, we've seen everything the scouting report said we should as well as shooting that wasn't expected to appear this early.
The obvious draw to Cunningham stems from his ball-handling and passing skills for a 6'8", 220-pound point guard/forward. He's averaging 18.5 points, 6.0 rebounds and 4.3 assists. He's also 6-of-13 from three and 16-of-19 on free throws, with his jumper looking more like a strength than a weakness.
I can't picture a scenario in which Cunningham isn't eventually an easy answer at No. 1 by draft time. My guess is scouts will get there too, but they remain open-minded just two weeks into the season.
Gonzaga's Jalen Suggs, Duke's Jalen Johnson better than advertised
Five-star recruit Suggs didn't come out of nowhere, but scouts do seem surprised by just how good he's looked.
He didn't look like this during FIBA, a setting scouts can attend. In 18 career international games from 2017 to '19 for the United States, Suggs averaged 2.1 assists on a combined 35.0 percent shooting and 24.2 percent from three.
But he made an enormous impression during his Gonzaga debut, finishing with 24 points and eight assists on 2-of-3 shooting from deep against Kansas. He flashed a full package of athleticism on drives and finishes, passing IQ as a playmaker and shot-making ability off the dribble.
I've seen enough through three games to move Suggs from No. 7 to the top three on our next big-board update. And while scouts aren't in any rush to do the same, the arrow is clearly pointing up for the 6'4", 205-pound guard.
Some also seem to have underestimated Johnson out of high school. Limited viewing opportunities—given the cancellation of the three major scouting events—combined with Johnson's early IMG departure were surely factors. But he's definitely separated himself in the first few games at Duke, wowing with his toned 6'9", 220-pound frame and ball-handling skills.
Playmaking potential separates Johnson from other forwards, aside from Cunningham. Athletically, he puts pressure on the rim early with his strength, bounce and coordination on finishes and putbacks. Not known for shooting, he's hit a three-pointer during two of his first three games.
He'll have to continue building on the flashes of shot-making to keep rising up boards, possibly into the top three. But even if he doesn't, tremendous tools and versatility should anchor Johnson in the lottery.
Scouts getting to know Arizona State's Marcus Bagley
Coming into the year, scouts knew little about the younger brother of 2018 No. 2 overall pick Marvin Bagley III. Marcus wasn't even the highest-rated incoming freshman at Arizona State. He now has scouts' attention.
During his first three games, Bagley hit 9-of-18 three-pointers, standing out with 6'8" size and convincing form/fluidity. Aside from the accuracy, he's demonstrated the shot-making versatility to bury jumpers off spot-ups, screens and dribbles.
And though he's totaled just three two-point field goals in four games, the NBA continues to express interest in shooters with Bagley's size.
Bagley could enter the one-and-done discussion just by continuing to sink threes.
Scouting notes
Scouts are still waiting to learn more about what will happen with the G League Ignite team that multiple high-level prospects chose to play for over college. Sources say their early scrimmages included more situation drilling than flowing game play. Assuming they won't have a regular season's worth of games, it will be fascinating to see how scouts assess Green, Jonathan Kuminga, Daishen Nix and Isaiah Todd compared with other first-round prospects from the NCAA and overseas.
Of the returning prospects, Texas' Kai Jones may be the one who's opened eyes widest. The 6'11" forward averaged 3.6 points a year ago. This season, he's already 19-of-22 from the field in five games, draining threes and throwing down dunks. Even if he's not ready to take over games, consistent flashes of shooting and athleticism should lead to first-round interest from teams willing to gamble on potential.
Kentucky's Brandon Boston Jr. has been the most disappointing player among the higher-profile ones, shooting 39.7 percent and 3-of-18 from three. I'll move him down from No. 2 on our preseason board. But I'm also expecting his jumper to start falling once he regains some confidence and rhythm.
Stanford's Ziaire Williams has been a mixed bag early, showcasing the perimeter skill that makes him so intriguing while struggling with physicality. He won't stray far from the late-lottery range as a 6'8" forward with shooting versatility, but his struggles taking contract and getting to the rim could keep him behind the top names in the class.
Watch out for Arkansas freshman Moses Moody, who's a combined 14-of-20 over his last two games and possesses similar shooting ability and defensive tools as Devin Vassell, a lottery pick last month.
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