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Bowl Projections 2020: CFP Predictions, Postseason Outlook Heading into Week 12

Joe TanseyNov 19, 2020

The top College Football Playoff contenders are clear heading into Week 12.

The Alabama Crimson Tide, Ohio State Buckeyes and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish all have direct paths to the national semifinals by winning out.

Three one-loss teams are directly beneath them in the rankings, with the Clemson Tigers in line to fill the final playoff spot at the moment.

Clemson should get a rematch with Notre Dame at the ACC Championship Game. The result of that contest could determine what happens with the No. 4 seed.

Of the four teams sitting from Nos. 5-8, only the Florida Gators can get into the playoff on their own through a SEC Championship Game triumph over Alabama.

The Texas A&M Aggies, Cincinnati Bearcats and BYU Cougars are the front-runners to capitalize on potential upsets, or if Alabama and Notre Dame win their respective championship games and eliminate Clemson and Florida.

On the same day the playoff field receives the most clarity through Power Five title clashes, bowl season will begin for the Group of Five schools.

College Football Playoff

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Sugar Bowl (January 1): No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Notre Dame

Rose Bowl (January 1): No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Clemson

Most of the discussion involving the top four teams in the country features the potential rematch between Clemson and Notre Dame in the ACC Championship Game.

The toughest remaining opponent on either regular-season schedule is the North Carolina Tar Heels, who play the Irish next week.

If Brian Kelly's side passes that test, it should have the opportunity to beat Clemson with Trevor Lawrence on the field.

The Tigers have to look at the ACC Championship Game as their avenue to get even with the Irish and remain in the top four of the playoff rankings.

A second loss would eliminate Clemson and potentially drop it into a New Year's Six bowl. Its first chance to impress with Lawrence back on the field comes Saturday against the Florida State Seminoles.

If the Tigers roll into Charlotte with three straight impressive wins, they could be in the best shape possible to take down the Irish.

The key to the ACC title game could be defensive stops. Clemson and Notre Dame combined for 87 points, and if the eventual victor on December 19 sharpens its defensive prowess, it could be the difference-maker.

If the Tigers beat Notre Dame, Alabama wins the SEC title and Ohio State takes the Big Ten crown, they would likely be the four playoff teams.

Alabama's biggest threat will come from Florida in the SEC Championship Game, while Ohio State has the potential to pick up two quality wins: on Saturday over the Indiana Hoosiers and another in the Big Ten Championship Game.

In that scenario, Ohio State would probably take the No. 2 seed since both Clemson and Notre Dame would have one loss.

New Year's Six

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Cotton Bowl (December 30): Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M

Peach Bowl (January 1): Florida vs. Cincinnati

Fiesta Bowl (January 2): Oregon vs. Wisconsin

Orange Bowl (January 2): BYU vs. Miami

If the top four remain the same after the conference championship games, there could be some intriguing New Year's Six matchups in play.

Cincinnati and BYU have chances to run through the rest of their respective schedules, which would keep them in the top 10 and lock them into at-large positions.

The two Group of Five teams should be matched up with Power Five programs in what could be the biggest games of their respective seasons.

If Florida loses in the SEC Championship Game, it would likely join Texas A&M as the SEC representatives in the New Year's Six.

The Big Ten West champion probably lands in this group as well if it loses to Ohio State in its conference championship game.

If Clemson and Notre Dame both qualify for the playoff, the Big 12 and Pac-12 champions would be sent to New Year's Six games.

At the moment, the Oklahoma State Cowboys are the top-ranked Big 12 side and the Oregon Ducks are ahead of the USC Trojans in the Pac-12.

With the Rose Bowl being a playoff semifinal in 2021, the Pac-12 winner and the Big Ten representative would likely go to the Fiesta Bowl for a matchup.

If Miami finishes inside the top 10, it could complete the New Year's Six set of teams as an ACC at-large team that heads to the Orange Bowl.