Ranking Remaining Games with the Biggest College Football Playoff Implications
If all goes according to plan, we'll likely see a College Football Playoff field of Alabama, Ohio State, Notre Dame and Clemson.
But let's be honest, what has really gone according to plan in 2020?
There is still plenty of time left in the 2020 college football season for a shake-up, and ahead we've highlighted the five remaining regular-season games with the biggest playoff implications.
The important qualifier there is regular season. Conference title games will obviously play a significant role in shaping the playoff landscape, but since we don't know who will be playing in them yet, all we can do is talk about those matchups in the abstract.
For now, these are the games to circle on your calendar. Let's kick things off with a few honorable mentions, before diving into our rankings.
Other Key Games
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Dec. 5: Clemson at Virginia Tech
The Hokies are a better team than their 4-4 record indicates, with those four losses coming by a combined 22 points. They gave Miami a scare with a 24-13 lead midway through the third quarter before folding late, and they are easily the toughest remaining game for Clemson.
Dec. 5: Indiana at Wisconsin
A world exists where Indiana upsets Ohio State on Nov. 21, then Wisconsin hands the Hoosiers their first loss of the season on Dec. 5 en route to an undefeated regular season. Would that be enough for the Badgers to clinch a playoff berth? First things first, they need to survive Northwestern next week. A lot still needs to happen before this game becomes CFP relevant, but it's one worth keeping in mind.
Dec. 12: San Diego State at BYU
It's no secret that BYU needs to go undefeated if it wants to keep its slim hopes of sneaking into the playoff picture alive. Brady Hoke has San Diego State off to a 3-1 start in his first season as head coach, and the Aztecs have won double-digit games four times in the past five years.
An SDSU rushing attack that is averaging 280.3 yards per game and 5.7 yards per carry squaring off against a BYU defense limiting opponents to 93.4 rushing yards and 3.0 yards per carry will be the decisive matchup.
5. Auburn at Alabama (Nov. 28)
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A 2-2 start to the season effectively removed Auburn from the playoff picture, but the Tigers still have a chance to play spoiler for the SEC West contenders.
Their first opportunity to shake things up will come on Nov. 28 against Alabama in the Iron Bowl.
With wins over Texas A&M and Georgia, a one-loss Crimson Tide team is still a lock for a playoff spot, which is why this game doesn't check in higher in these rankings.
However, it would shake up seeding, with Alabama undoubtedly slipping behind Notre Dame and Ohio State if they both finish undefeated.
Despite the early struggles, Auburn has played well of late with wins over Ole Miss (35-28) and LSU (48-11), and the Tigers always come to play against their biggest rival.
That recent momentum still might not be enough to hang around with an Alabama team that has been rolling for most of the year, including a 41-0 shutout of Mississippi State last time it took the field.
Never say never.
4. Texas A&M at Auburn (Dec. 5)
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A week after the Iron Bowl, Auburn has another opportunity to shake things up.
Texas A&M has steadily climbed the rankings since starting the year at No. 13 in the AP poll, and if the Aggies can finish out the regular season at 9-1 with their only loss coming to Alabama, they will be squarely in the playoff conversation.
Their next two games are against Ole Miss and LSU at home, and they should be heavily favored in both of them, as well as their regular-season finale on the road against Tennessee.
That leaves their Dec. 5 matchup at Auburn as the biggest remaining hurdle.
While the Tigers are on a three-game winning streak in the head-to-head series, the Aggies played them tough in 2018 (28-24) and 2019 (28-20), and they have been the better team here in 2020.
Texas A&M has done a nice job controlling the running game, allowing 95.7 yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry on the year. If the Aggies can limit the Tigers on the ground and force Bo Nix to beat them through the air, they'll be in good shape.
Outside of the teams on the field, this game also has significant ramifications for Florida.
The Gators' only defeat came against Texas A&M, and if both teams finish with one loss, the Aggies will have the upper hand for a playoff spot.
3. Notre Dame at North Carolina (Nov. 27)
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What are the chances that two one-loss ACC teams will make the College Football Playoff?
Notre Dame gave itself a clear path to the playoffs with a victory over Clemson, effectively shaking things up in its one-off run as an ACC member.
However, the remaining schedule is by no means a walk in the park.
North Carolina doesn't play defense, but it can pile up points when everything is clicking offensively, evidenced by a trio of 50-plus-point outbursts this year.
That includes 115 points in its last two games, with quarterback Sam Howell throwing for 550 yards and six touchdowns in a comeback victory over Wake Forest on Saturday.
If the Tar Heels can strike early against the Fighting Irish and force them into a shootout, they might have a chance of winning a race to 50 points.
After allowing just 10.3 points per game in their first six games, Notre Dame has surrendered 71 points the past two games, so it's not out of the question to think its defense could bend against a well-balanced Tar Heels attack.
If Notre Dame loses, it would open the door for a variety of different fields alongside Alabama and Ohio State in the playoffs.
2. Cincinnati at Tulsa (Dec. 4)
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Cincinnati has the most compelling case in years for a Group of Five team to be invited to the College Football Playoff party.
The Bearcats are not only 7-0 on the year, but they have done it in dominant fashion, outscoring opponents 291-87 and picking up convincing wins over then-No. 22 Army, then-No. 16 SMU and a good Memphis team along the way.
AAC fans were no doubt circling the Nov. 21 game between UCF and Cincinnati when the season started, and that will still be a tough test for the Bearcats.
However, it's the Tulsa game to close out the regular season that now looks like the most daunting test left on the Cincinnati schedule.
The Golden Hurricanes are 4-1 on the year, with their lone loss coming in an ugly 16-7 game against Oklahoma State to kick off the season. They upset then-No. 11 UCF on Oct. 3 and scored another win over a ranked team Saturday with a 28-24 victory over No. 19 SMU. After posting a 9-27 record the past three seasons, it's been a stark reversal of fortunes for Tulsa.
The X-factor in this game could be Tulsa linebacker Zaven Collins, who has absolutely filled up the stat sheet this year with 34 tackles, six tackles for loss, four sacks, three interceptions, two forced fumbles and two pass deflections.
If the Bearcats survive and win their conference championship game, their case will be a compelling one.
1. Indiana vs. Ohio State (Nov. 21)
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Asked to point to the most compelling opponents on the Ohio State Buckeyes schedule at the start of the season, most college football fans would have focused in on Penn State (Oct. 31) and Michigan (Dec. 12) as the ones to watch.
Four weeks into the Big Ten schedule, those two blue bloods have stumbled to a combined 1-7 record.
Instead, it is the Indiana Hoosiers who have emerged as the biggest challenger to the Buckeyes for Big Ten supremacy, and their head-to-head meeting next weekend will have huge playoff implications.
If Ohio State wins, its path to a fourth College Football Playoff berth in seven years is relatively clear, with Illinois, Michigan State and a floundering Michigan team comprising its remaining schedule.
If Indiana wins, the Buckeyes will tumble down the rankings and the Hoosiers will vault into the playoff picture. It also improves Wisconsin's chances of securing a berth if the Badgers can survive their side of the schedule unscathed, setting up a meeting with Indiana in the conference title game.
Should things play out in a way that all three of those teams end up with one loss, it would likely open the door for Florida, Texas A&M or perhaps even Cincinnati to seize the fourth playoff berth.
It's a game that few expected to be of major significance a few short weeks ago, but it will now have as much impact on the playoff picture as any game left on the schedule.
All stats courtesy of Sports Reference.
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