NBA Finals 2020: Lakers vs. Heat Game 3 Odds, Props and Predictions
October 4, 2020
The expectations for Anthony Davis' scoring production have risen ahead of each NBA Finals game.
For Game 3, the Los Angeles Lakers big man has been assigned his largest projected point total of the series at 30.5.
Davis has five 30-point performances in his last seven games and could feast down once again versus a depleted Miami Heat frontcourt.
Although the Heat have come up short in the first two games, they have received plenty of points from two of the most experienced players on their roster.
Since Jimmy Butler and Jae Crowder have produced at a decent rate, it is worth considering them on player prop markets for Sunday night's contest inside the Orlando bubble.
NBA Finals Game 3 Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
Spread: Los Angeles Lakers (-9.5)
Over/Under: 220
Money Line: Los Angeles Lakers (-450; bet $450 to win $100); Miami (+350; bet $100 to win $350)
Prop Bet Predictions
Anthony Davis Points (Over 30.5)
Davis produced 66 points in his first two NBA Finals appearances.
With Bam Adebayo not on the floor in Game 2, Davis put up 32 points and 14 rebounds for his 10th double-double of the postseason.
Even though the over/under for Davis' point total continues to increase, it is worth taking the over because he has a significant advantage down low with Adebayo hurt.
Meyers Leonard and Kelly Olynyk are the largest bodies the Heat can throw at Davis, and if they ask Crowder to defend the Lakers big man, they give up a good amount of size.
Miami can't do much from a physical standpoint to stop Davis, so it may have to come up with an adjustment to its defensive scheme to limit his number of field-goal attempts.
Since Davis can beat the Heat in a few different ways, whether it be through near-perfect shooting or by forcing his way to the free-throw line, it is hard to imagine he will be kept under 30 points in Game 3.
Jimmy Butler Points and Assists (Over 30.5)
Butler is by far the most reliable Heat player to bet on when it comes to player props.
Despite all the injuries, Butler has put in his best efforts in an attempt to keep the Eastern Conference champion in the series.
In Game 2, Butler totaled 25 points, 13 assists and eight rebounds while shooting 7-of-17 from the field.
Since Miami relies on him to score and distribute, taking the over on his combined points and assists feels like a good approach.
In 11 of his 17 playoff games inside the bubble, Butler produced at least four assists to go along with his double-digit point totals.
In the last three contests, Butler had 28 or more points and assists, and if he records a high number of handouts again with Goran Dragic not on the court, he has a chance to eclipse the set total in the combined prop.
Jae Crowder Made 3-Pointers (Over 2.5)
Crowder has rediscovered his form beyond the arc in the NBA Finals.
After going 2-of-18 in the final three games against Boston, Crowder went 6-of-10 from three-point range in Games 1 and 2.
Crowder has been the most accurate three-point shooter on the Heat roster, and he is the only one who has made over 50 percent of his attempts.
Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro have the potential to get hot, but it is hard to trust the pair of young guards after they combined to shoot 5-of-21 from deep in the opening two games.
Olynyk may be a popular play on three-point props because of his Game 2 success, but that was one of two games in the postseason in which he knocked down multiple shots from that area of the court.
Since Crowder has been consistent and typically takes a handful of three-pointers per game, taking his over is the best bet from the Miami roster.
Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.
Statistics obtained from Basketball Reference.