2020's Best MLB Rivalry Continues: Yankees vs. Rays ALDS Preview and Prediction

How spicy do you like your postseason dish served? If you can stomach too-hot-to-handle, then welcome to the New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays showdown in the AL division series set to begin Monday at Petco Park in San Diego, California. This growing rivalry has never spilled over to the postseason—until now.

The winds of war have been howling since a bench-clearing incident Sept. 1. The Yankees and Rays have been sniping at each other over the last three seasons, but the hostility came to head when Aroldis Chapman buzzed Mike Brosseau with a 101 mph fastball.

That set in motion an exchange of insults and threats, not to mention the possibility of another on-field encounter. Although it's unlikely either club would be willing to risk suspensions during the postseason, neither side is bothering with pleasantries. Whether it's summer or October, the Yankees and Rays have grown to genuinely hate each other.

Of course, not much would make the Yankees' season better than a takedown of the small-market team that beat them eight of 10 in 2020. The converse is just as true: the Rays proved they were the AL's No. 1 club. Here's their chance to make the case in front of a national audience—and at the expense of those regal Yankees, to boot.

But what figures to happen over the ALDS' five-game span? And we do mean five. The Yankees and Rays are both surging at the same time. On a granular level, the matchup distills down to the Rays' power starting pitching against the Yankees' home run hitting machine. Whichever force prevails will most likely advance.

Here are the questions and points of interest that will keep you locked in. That's a promise.

Can Gerrit Cole Win Game 1?

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Gerrit Cole has to win Game 1 if the Yankees want to move on. The Bombers depend on Cole not just for victories but also the ripple effect on the rest of the rotation. There's no hurler in pinstripes with similar gravitas; Cole's setbacks this season—and there were a few—resonated deeply.

He's the true definition of an ace: big-game weapon, stopper of losing streaks, the guy who wants the ball in an elimination game. Aaron Judge flatly said, "That's why we went out and got him" after Cole blew away the Indians in Game 1 of the WCS. He might end up with the ball in Game 5 against the Rays too, but more on that later. 

The challenge Cole faces Monday is twofold: he's likely drawing Blake Snell, who's coming off a stellar performance against the Toronto Blue Jays in the Wild Card Round (no runs and nine strikeouts over 5.2 innings.)

The odds say Snell will lock up Cole in a low-scoring game, which brings the conversation to its second crossroads: the beatdown Tampa handed Cole on Aug. 31, when the Yankees ace surrendered four runs and eight hits in just five innings, including two home runs.

That ended a particularly bad month for the right-hander, as his ERA rose from 2.55 to almost 4.00, including 10 HRs in 34.1 innings. 

The Rays will no doubt use that recent history to their advantage, as they have to believe they're in Cole's head. But much has changed since August. Gary Sanchez has been replaced by Kyle Higashioka when Cole pitches, and the results have been startling. In his last four starts, all with Higashioka behind the plate, Cole went 3-1 with a 0.99 ERA (three earned runs in 27 innings), including 34 strikeouts and only two HRs.

Without directly indicting Sanchez, Cole say he feels more confident with Higashioka, locked in and executing his pitches better than he was in August. The Rays won't be seeing the same pitcher.

So What About Game 5?

Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

Unlike the Rays, who are unafraid to user openers and might just do so in Games 4 and 5, the Yankees would prefer an established starter throughout the series.

Manager Aaron Boone experimented in Game 6 of last year's ALCS against the Houston Astros and failed miserably. Chad Green, typically a seventh-inning option, started for the Bombers and allowed three runs in the first inning. The Yankees' season ended that night on Jose Altuve's walk-off homer against Aroldis Chapman. 

The only question Boone has to answer about Game 5 is whether Cole can take the ball on three days' rest since there will be zero days off during the series. Only Cole himself can decide, since he's always worked on normal rest. Not once in the regular season or playoffs has he started with less than a full four days off.

Ideally, the Yankees can jump out to a big, early lead on Snell, allowing Cole to bail after five innings. But who can reasonably expect that?

Watch out for Home Runs...Maybe Not?

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Much has been said (and written) about whether the Yankees can beat anyone, let alone the Rays, without the long ball. Case in point was their weeklong home run drought near the end of the regular season. Not one Yankee went deep before Tyler Wade—Tyler Wade!—ended the streak in an 11-4 rout of the Miami Marlins.

Here's an even more telling stat: Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres and Gary Sanchez combined for zero HRs in 86 at-bats over the last nine games of the regular season. The Yankees lost six of them.

Boone said not to worry—the switch would be flipped in the division series. And he was right. The Yankees hit seven homers while sweeping the Indians and are just as determined to keep it up against Tampa Bay. 

"It's that time of year where people like to beat the drum on the little ball and all that," Boone said on a Zoom call Thursday afternoon. "But at the end of the day, the home run is going to play a big role in who continues to advance."

The Rays' response? They held the Yankees to 34 runs this season. In fact, they out-homered the Yankees 16-13.

The Bombers' response to that? Batting champion DJ LeMahieu missed three of the 10 games because of COVID-19. Judge was out for six. Stanton for seven. Just as the Yankees will be featuring a different Cole, they're bringing a fully refurbished lineup to the series.

What Happens When Aroldis Chapman Takes the Mound?

Adrian Kraus/Associated Press

You mean besides the taunts and insults from the Rays' dugout? That's a given. But it's unclear whether there's any further escalation. As I said, it's unlikely. The stakes are too high.

But the Rays haven't forgotten or forgiven Chapman for nearly taking Mike Brosseau's head off last month. The incident resulted in a three-game suspension, but what irks Tampa Bay's personnel—from the front office down—is that Chapman has gotten away with it, at least for now.

He appealed the verdict, which temporarily stayed the suspension. But the hearing was postponed until 2021 as his "witnesses"—who Chapman said would back up his claim that he wasn't deliberately aiming for Brosseau's head—were said to be unavailable.

The fact that Chapman will be back on the mound at some point is sure to raise the temperature on an already overheated matchup. And who knows, it could be in that Game 5 setting that feels inevitable.

Who Advances to the ALCS?

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There are sound reasons to pick the Rays if you factor in their in-season dominance of the Yankees. There isn't a single aspect of the game where Tampa Bay hasn't demonstrated superiority, including their ability to deconstruct Gerrit Cole's fastball and being bold enough to say they can't stand the regal empire. Give the Rays credit: they're fearless.

Yet I still like the Bombers in five, in part because Cole is long past his midsummer slump. He's also about to make his 12th career postseason start. Masahiro Tanaka will likely take the mound in Game 2 for the 10th time. Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow have just five postseason starts combined.

I'm not suggesting the Rays will be overwhelmed by the moment, but the Yankees' experience will nevertheless be an advantage. I also believe the Bombers were energized by their two-and-out sweep of the Indians in the WCS. They hadn't played well on the road all season, and then, as Aaron Boone promised, the Bombers became a wrecking ball when it counted.

That sudden transformation has me thinking the Yankees might just run the table. But here's one more prediction: you're not going to miss an inning from here to Friday.