Dominic Thiem vs. Alexander Zverev: Career Stats, Prediction for Men's Final

Mike Chiari@mikechiariFeatured ColumnistSeptember 13, 2020

Dominic Thiem, of Austria, pumps his fist after defeating Alex de Minaur, of Australia, during the quarterfinal round of the US Open tennis championships, Wednesday, Sept. 9, 2020, in New York. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)
Frank Franklin II/Associated Press

For the first time since Marin Cilic won the 2014 U.S. Open, a new Grand Slam singles champion in men's tennis will be crowned at the 2020 U.S. Open on Sunday.

With Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer not playing and world No. 1 Novak Djokovic defaulting out of the tournament in the fourth round, second-seeded Dominic Thiem and fifth-seeded Alexander Zverev will meet in the U.S. Open final in New York.

Thiem and Zverev have enjoyed a great deal of success in recent years and have been among the top players in the world, but one of them will finally be able to call themselves a Grand Slam champion Sunday.

Here is a breakdown of their career stats in head-to-head situations followed by a prediction about who will prevail at Arthur Ashe Stadium.

Career H2H Stats

When Thiem and Zverev meet Sunday, Thiem will be a fairly substantial favorite thanks to his 7-2 career mark against his German counterpart:

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When it comes to hardcourts, Thiem is 3-0 against Zverev and 2-0 in Grand Slam meetings. That includes the 2020 Australian Open semifinal, which Thiem won 3-6, 6-4, 7-6(3), 7-6(4).

Thiem has won three in a row against Zverev and two of them came at Grand Slams in the form of the 2020 Aussie Open and 2018 French Open.

Zverev's only hardcourt win over Thiem came back in 2016 in Beijing when he outlasted the Austrian 4-6, 6-1, 6-3.

Even when not taking head-to-head meetings into account, the 27-year-old Thiem has enjoyed more success than the 23-year-old Zverev to this point in their careers.

Thiem has 16 career ATP singles titles to his credit, including five in 2019. He also reached three Grand Slam finals before the 2020 U.S. Open, but he fell short in the 2018 French Open, 2019 French Open and 2020 U.S. Open finals.

By comparison, Zverev has won 11 ATP singles titles, but only one of those were captured last year. He has also never played in a Grand Slam final as his previous best result before this tournament was reaching the 2020 Aussie Open semis, where he fell to Thiem.


In terms of who the fresher player should be Sunday, Thiem has a significant advantage with each of his past three matches ending in straight sets.

Thiem dominated in the fourth round and quarterfinals, and while his semifinal clash with Daniil Medvedev wasn't necessarily easy, he prevailed 6-2, 7-6(7), 7-6(5).

Meanwhile, Zverev has gone longer than three sets in each of his past two matches, including a five-set thriller in the semifinals against Pablo Carreno Busta that required Zverev to come back from two sets down.

Considering how much energy Zverev has expended, look for Thiem to prevail and finally win a Grand Slam title on his fourth try.

Final pick: Thiem in four sets.