Kentucky Derby Picks 2020: Predictions and Odds for All Horses in the Lineup

The 146th running of the Kentucky Derby will take place on Saturday.

Typically, the storyline entering the Derby revolves around which horses can kick off the Triple Crown with a win at Churchill Downs and make a run at history.

This year is a bit different, as the COVID-19 pandemic forced changes upon the 2020 horse racing schedule. The Derby was moved from May to September, with the Preakness Stakes now bringing up the Triple Crown rear on October 3.

The Belmont Stakes was delayed by only two weeks in June, though, and Tiz the Law emerged as the clear victor en route to a potential Triple Crown run.

The New York-bred horse enters the Derby as a favorite over the rest of the field, and a win Saturday would make him the clear pick to win the Preakness and become the third horse to win the Triple Crown in six years. Therefore, all eyes are on him as the Derby approaches. 

Here's a look at the odds as of Thursday morning as well as some predictions for each range on the Derby ledger.

Odds

Tiz the Law: 3-5

Honor A. P.: 5-1

Authentic: 8-1

Thousand Words: 15-1

King Guillermo: 20-1

Ny Traffic: 20-1

Money Moves: 30-1

Enforceable: 30-1

Max Player: 30-1

Sole Volante: 30-1

South Bend: 50-1

Necker Island: 50-1

Mr. Big News: 50-1

Storm the Court: 50-1

Attachment Rate: 50-1

Winning Impression: 50-1

Major Fed: 50-1

Finnick the Fierce: 50-1

Source: Official Kentucky Derby Website

Predictions

Clear Favorite

All Tiz the Law has done in 2020 is win the Travers Stakes, the Belmont Stakes, the Florida Derby and the Holy Bull Stakes. He's 4-of-4 on the year and likely to go 5-of-5 after Saturday.

The colt also enters this race in peak form after beating the Travers Stakes field by five-and-a-half lengths on August 8.

Tiz the Law owner Jack Knowlton is bullish on his horse after that win, per Bob Ehalt of The BloodHorse:

"Hopefully, we'll continue on this roll and this is a great springboard to go to Kentucky. I think he's proven today that he's certainly a mile-and-a-quarter horse. Barclay said that all along. I think as most of you know, Barclay hoped that the Belmont Stakes would be a mile and a half instead of a mile and an eighth."

The Kentucky Derby is run on a 1¼-mile track.

Knowlton is also pleased with Tiz the Law's No. 17 post position:

Jockey Manuel Franco will be back on Tiz the Law after their Belmont Stakes win. Chances are they'll be riding into the Preakness with a Triple Crown on the line.

Top Contenders

Honor A. P. and Authentic appear to have an edge on the rest of the field outside the Belmont Stakes winner, and the guess here is that they finish second and third, respectively.

Honor A. P. has never finished worse than second in his five lifetime races, winning twice. One of those second-place finishes was to Authentic at the San Felipe Stakes in March. He got revenge at the Santa Anita Derby in June, though, by taking down Authentic for a big win.

That marked Authentic's only career loss, as he's won his other four professional races. He most recently beat a tough field at the Haskell Stakes on July 18, defeating second-place finisher and 20-1 Kentucky Derby favorite Ny Traffic for the victory.

Both horses have the resume to finish strong in the Derby, and their placement near the top of the odds ledger is warranted. But Tiz the Law will be too strong for both.

15-1 to 30-1 Range

The middle of the pack features some strong contenders, and the pick here is for 20-1 King Guillermo to emerge as the top finisher from this grouping.

King Guillermo, who is owned by former MLB slugger Victor Martinez, turned heads at the Arkansas Derby on May 2 when he finished second to Nadal. The Bob Baffert-owned horse was considered a Triple Crown favorite earlier in the year but was forced to retire due to an ankle injury, per ESPN News Services.

King Guillermo held off Kentucky Derby participant Finnick the Fierce for his second-place finish and outran another one in Sole Volante for a win at the Tampa Bay Derby on March 7.

Overall, King Guillermo has finished top three in his last four races, including a win at Gulfstream Park West last November.

At 30-1, Sole Volante could be worth a long-shot bet. He finished a disappointing sixth in the Belmont but has the third-highest Horse Racing Nation rating among all those in this year's Derby field after Art Collector dropped out due to a minor foot injury.

Sole Volante has four career wins, including one at Gulfstream Park in June. A win is unlikely here, but a threat to finish in the top three isn't out of the question.

50-1 Long Shots

Don't expect any of the 50-1 horses to win or come close to a second- or third-place finish, but a few of them could surprise and finish beyond their expectations at the back of the pack.

Mr. Big News and Attachment Rate are the lone two horses with wins in 2020. Mr. Big News has two, one at the Oaklawn Stakes and another at Fair Grounds. The Oaklawn Stakes win at 46-1 gave him a berth in the Preakness, per Mary Rampellini of the Daily Racing Form.

Attachment Rate earned a win in February at Gulfstream Park and most recently finished second to Art Collector at the Ellis Stakes.

Art Collector had the second-best odds of 9-2 to win the Derby earlier this week before withdrawing, per Chris Bengel of CBS Sports.

Elsewhere, Finnick the Fierce hasn't won a race in 2020 but has encountered stiff competition that makes him battle-tested for Churchill Downs. He finished third in the Arkansas Derby behind Nadal and King Guillermo and took third in an allowance-optional claiming race in June at Churchill Downs that Art Collector took home.

Again, it's unlikely that any of the 50-1 horses will seriously contend for a Derby win, but if any of them threaten the contenders, look for one of these three to do so.