2008 NFL Preview: NFC North

The NFC North is a division that has some of the oldest rivalries in the NFL. The Bears, Lions, and Packers are among the original NFL franchises, and each have a storied history. 

The Minnesota Vikings did not join the league until the 1960s, but assimilated well into the division’s rivalries. This year marks the first time since 1992 that a certain Hall-of-Fame QB in Green Bay will not be taking the field.

The Packers have been the dominant team in the division since Favre became their quarterback. The Packers won seven divisional titles during his tenure, and they won over 60 percent of their divisional games.

Which team seizes control of the division going forward is going to be a very interesting development.

Here is how I see the 2008 season playing out in the NFC North.

1) Minnesota Vikings

'07 Record: 8-8

Points Scored: 365 (15th)

Points Allowed: 311 (12th)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule: 141-115 (.551) (T-fourth in NFL)

Strengths

The Minnesota Vikings were the best in the league at running the football, and they were also the best in the league at stopping the run.

Let’s start with the offense. Adrian Peterson had a tremendous season. He rushed for 1,341 yards and 12 touchdowns, despite only starting nine games. He was the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Included in that mammoth total was a 296-yard rushing performance against San Diego, which set a NFL record for rushing yards in a single game. 

He also had a 224-yard game against the Chicago Bears. The key for him will be consistency and doing better with eight men in the box. In his final four games, he was held to 54 carries and 144 yards, which is 2.7 yards per carry. Part of that was his coming back from an injury, but part of it was defenses concentrating on him more than they did in the first half of the season.

Chester Taylor also had a fine season. He rushed for 844 yards and seven touchdowns. Minnesota and Jacksonville easily have the best running back duos in the NFL.

While Peterson and Taylor are good, the line is one of the best in the business.  McKinney and Hutchinson make up the left side of the line, and Birk is a tremendous center. It is imperative that McKinney not be suspended for his disorderly conduct and resisting arrest charges that are still pending in a Miami courtroom.

On defense, the Vikings may have the best front four in football. Pat and Kevin Williams are two, mammoth defensive tackles that stop the run extremely well. 

New to the mix is Jared Allen, acquired in a trade with Kansas City. He had 15.5 sacks in 14 games last season. He gives them the pass rusher they sorely missed last season. That should help the Vikings improve on their 32nd-ranked pass defense.

On special teams, Ryan Longwell is a steady and reliable kicker. It remains to be seen if the Vikings will continue to use Peterson as a return man.

Weaknesses

For as good as the Vikings were at running the ball and stopping the run, they were equally bad at passing the ball and stopping the pass.

Let’s start with the pass defense. It ranked 32nd last year, but the Vikings have addressed that. Jared Allen should help out with that. They also signed Madieu Williams and Michael Boulware to help at the safety spot.

Finally, they drafted Tyrell Johnson to help in the secondary. If Sharper, Winfield, and Griffin can raise their level of play, and Allen gives them the pass rush they have lacked, then the pass defense should be much improved in 2008. They forced a lot of turnovers in 2007. Now they just need to stop people from catching the ball.

That leaves the passing game. The Vikings ranked 32nd in pass attempts, 28th in passing yards, and 29th in passing touchdowns. They got third-receiver-type production out of their No. 1 and No. 2 receivers.

Darrell Bevell said this about Tarvaris Jackson, the Vikings’ third year QB, “He’s been outstanding this offseason. He's been in here watching and studying. He's been out here training, trying to get better at the things he needs to get better at, and I couldn't ask for anything more from him."

Jackson is the key to the 2008 season for the Vikings, and that is an excellent sign. The Vikings need to get more production out of their passing game.  Jackson progressed well in year two, and if the Vikings are going to contend for the playoffs, and possibly advance to a Super Bowl, they need him to progress even more.

Even if Jackson is improving, the Vikings still have a weak receiving corps.  Bernard Berrian will help, but he is by no means a proven No. 1 receiver, even though he is being paid like one. Sidney Rice showed promise as a rookie, but still needs to develop. Bobby Wade and Robert Ferguson are journeymen players.

The Vikings have many No. 2 and No. 3 receivers, but nobody that screams dominant No. 1 guy. Berrian and Rice are the most likely on the roster to emerge.

Prediction

I think the Vikings are in position to grab control of this division. They have the best offensive player in the division in Peterson, and the defensive line is probably the best in the NFL. They also have a great offensive line. All the pieces are in place to win the division and compete in the NFC.

The question mark is the quarterback and the passing game. If Jackson were a proven commodity, I would say the Vikings would be the favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. The problem is, they were first in rush offense and defense a year ago, and that only got them 8-8.

The Vikings need production in the passing game and can only go as far as Jackson takes them.

The schedule looks tougher than it really is. The Vikings caught a number of breaks. The 13-3 Packers are factored into their strength of schedule twice. Few people are thinking the Packers will repeat that record. They drew no cold-weather sites in November and December, which is something the Vikings traditionally struggle with.

They face the easier part of the schedule in the second half of the season. They play Chicago, at Detroit, at Arizona, and Houston from Week 13-16, before closing with the NY Giants at home. That bodes well for them taking control of the division with a late season surge.

I look for the Vikings to make the playoffs for the first time since 2004. I think they will win the NFC North for the first time in their franchise history, and their first divisional title since their NFC Central crown back in 2000.

Minnesota Vikings’ Record: 11-5—NFC North Divisional Champion; NFC No. 2 Seed

2) Green Bay Packers

'07 Record: 13-3

Points Scored: 435 (4th)

Points Allowed: 291 (6th)

Playoff Result: Lost NFC Championship Game

2008 Strength of Schedule: 136-120 (.531) (T-11th in NFL)

Strengths

The Packers had an unbelievably balanced team in 2007. They finished fourth in points scored and sixth in points allowed. Brett Favre had an impressive season, finishing second in the MVP race. Ryan Grant had the most yards of any back not named Tomlinson in the NFL in the second half of the regular season.

Mason Cosby finished second in the Pro-Bowl voting at kicker. Other than at Chicago, Ryan did a decent job of punting. Even the special teams gave good contributions in the return game. Robinson and Williams were strong in that regard.

There were few changes that needed to be made, and people assumed "No. 4" would come back for a final title run. However, that changed on March 4, 2008. Now, one player leaving has created a lot of questions.

It is hard to judge the Packers’ 2008 chances with such a key member of their offense gone. What the Packers should still be able to expect is a good defense. That starts with the front seven and the corners.

The Packers have an extremely deep defensive line.  Kampman is a great pass rusher that supports the run well. Jenkins does well at stopping the run and moves to DT on passing downs. KGB, Jolly, Harrell, and others provide good depth.

The linebackers support the run well, but they struggle to cover the pass, and in particular, the tight end.  That should improve simply by not facing Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez, and Jeremy Shockey this season.

Still, there are good tight ends on the schedule, and they need to improve in that area. Nick Barnett is always solid, and Hawk is on the verge of making a Pro Bowl.

The secondary is a mixed bag. Harris and Woodson may be the best corner duo in the NFL. They are extremely physical. While they draw a lot of interference calls, they make up for it with picks, third-down stops, and wearing down receivers. 

However, both are over 30 years old. Bigby had an up-and-down first year starting, but ended up being the NFC Defensive Player of the Month in December, and was lights out in the playoffs. He needs to play like he did at the end of the year.

The Packers have issues at their other safety spot and in nickel and dime packages. They need players to step up there.

All in all, this is a very young defensive unit, other than the corners. This defense is going to have to carry the load in 2008 while the offense adjusts, something they should be capable of doing in a lot of games.

Weaknesses

It’s been a long time since we said the offense was the weakness of the Green Bay Packers. That is where the Packers find themselves in 2008.

I don’t want to come across as having the mentality that there is no life after Favre. He had a lot of help last year, and I like a lot of things the Packers have going on offense.

However, I also think people need to understand how key he was to what the Packers did. To assume a fourth-year QB that has yet to start an NFL game can just step in and keep the ball rolling is not realistic. It is not fair to Aaron Rodgers.

With regards to Rodgers, he may very well end up being a great quarterback. As a Packers fan, I hope he does. But one good half of football is too small of a sample to say he is definitely going to succeed. Throw out the Dallas game, it means nothing.

I like how he has progressed in making reads, and his command of the offense, since his rookie year. That was showing the entire 2007 preseason. What I am worried about is his durability.

The injuries have been freakish in nature, but it is a bad omen to be injured as the NFL’s all-time most durable starting-quarterback’s backup. Brian Brohm is a promising prospect, but not ready to carry this offense as a rookie.

The receivers are solid, and are the strength of the offense. They are great athletes and ranked No. 1 in yards after the catch. Donald Driver is a veteran presence, Greg Jennings looks to be an up and comer, and James Jones, Martin, and Nelson all provide good depth. Donald Lee had a good year at tight end. There is a lot of talent there that will help Rodgers make the transition.

Remember that the yards after the catch they were getting were partially the result of teams being scared of No. 4’s ability to throw the deep ball.

Those same cushions are not going to be there until teams respect Rodgers’s deep ball. I expect those players to be solid and put up good numbers, but not be as explosive down the field or in yards after the catch as they were in 2007.

The offensive line is interesting. The tackles are good, but they are very young at guard and center. The line gelled well as the season progressed, and they became a strength of the team.

Part of the reason that the Packers could go with so many four and five wide-receiver sets is because of Favre's command of the offense, and his ability to get rid of the ball quickly. 

The Packers surrendered only 19 sacks, tied for third in the NFL. The quicker Rodgers can get rid of the ball, the more four and five-receiver sets they can use to take advantage of the talent they have at receiver.

Finally, we get to the running back. Who is the real Ryan Grant? Is he the back that had 201 yards and three touchdowns against Seattle, or the one that had 29 yards and zero touchdowns against the Giants? 

One would have had the same questions with Favre coming back. Ten games are not enough to anoint a guy a star running back.

The Packers are going to try to feature him in the offense to take pressure of Rodgers, and he is going to have to prove he can handle the increased attention he will see from defenses. He is perfect for that zone-blocking scheme, and I expect him to get over 1,000 yards and score seven to nine touchdowns.

Prediction

I find it entertaining how people seem to think the Packers are not going to have problems without Brett Favre in 2008. The mentality that the Packers have a great young team, and Rodgers is just ready to step in, is based on one good half against Dallas.

Since 1992, the Packers have finished in the top 10 in both yards gained and points scored every year other than 1992, 1993, 2002, 2005, and 2006. In 2007, the Packers finished second in passing yards, fourth in points scored, sixth in touchdown passes, and 11th in interceptions thrown.

This is a huge loss. It cannot be overstated. This is not Joe Montana and his 16 touchdown passes retiring from the Chiefs in 1994. This is not Dan Marino and his 11 touchdown passes retiring from the Dolphins in 1999. Those guys are all-time greats, but were very average at the end of their career. 

Even if you take out the fact that the Packers are losing an all-time great player and leader, they are still losing their best offensive player from 2007 at the NFL’s most important position.

There are still a lot of good players on the team. I don’t expect the Packers to bottom out at 4-12 in 2008. The team is going to want to show that they can still win, and they will be motivated to do well without Favre. There are plenty of NFL teams in a worse situation.

Had Favre come back, I would have thought a 10-6 or an 11-5 record would be realistic, just based on the tougher schedule. The Packers have many tough games in 2008. They play Dallas, at Seattle, Minnesota twice, at Tampa, at New Orleans, Indianapolis, at Jacksonville, and at Tennessee. 

I think you are going to see games where they amaze and games where they really struggle.  A lack of consistency is what worries me about the Packers. An 8-8 record and just missing the playoffs is a realistic expectation.

They should be able to get back to the playoffs in 2009, if their young players continue to grow and they add more young talent to supplement some of their aging positions at the offensive tackles and cornerback.

Green Bay Packers’ Record: 8-8—NFC North second place; No Playoffs

3) Detroit Lions

'07 Record: 7-9

Points Scored: 346 (16th)

Points Allowed: 444 (32nd)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule: 139-117 (.543) (10th in NFL)

Strengths

The Lions had a great passing attack under passing guru Mike Martz. He is no longer with the team, but the offense still has plenty of weapons. Jon Kitna is the most established QB in the division, and Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson, Mike Furrey, and Shaun McDonald give him a lot of weapons.

Roy Williams is a solid target, Calvin Johnson is a freak, and he should have a much better second year now that he has experience and is healthy.

The Lions should be able to throw the ball and put points up on the board, but Kitna has to throw fewer interceptions. He ranked second in 2006 and first in 2007 in that regard. He also has to take fewer sacks, as he led the league in that regard in both 2006 and 2007.

This was a team that started the 2007 season 6-2, but finished 1-7. When they were winning, their passing offense was not the only thing carrying them. They were good at forcing turnovers early in the season.

The Lions had 17 interceptions, which ranked 14th in the NFL, which is right around the middle of the pack. They finished ninth in sacks with 37. 

That made up for their 31st-ranked pass defense. Fernando Bryant is no longer with the team. Leigh Bodden, Brian Kelly, and Dwight Smith are expected to help in that regard.

Shaun Rodgers is gone from the defensive line. It will be interesting to see how that affects the run defense, which ranked 23rd in the NFL with him. Cory Redding and Chuck Darby will have to step up their play. Ernie Sims is a fantastic young linebacker. 

Boss Bailey is now in Denver, but he never really did live up to expectations in Detroit. The Lions have good individual players on defense, but need them to step up and making their units more competitive. Other than sacks and picks, there wasn’t much this defense did right in 2007.

Jason Hanson is still the kicker and a mainstay in Detroit. He has been with the Lions since 1992, and is considered one of the most reliable kickers in the NFL.

Weaknesses

This team really lacked a running game in 2007. They ranked 32nd in rushing attempts and 31st in rushing yards. Many people blamed Mike Martz for that.  Keep in mind that he coached Marshall Faulk and Steven Jackson in St. Louis. While he definitely prefers the forward pass, he has had successful backs in his system. 

Part of the Lions' inability to run the ball stemmed from their running backs, poor offensive line, and a defense that did not give them leads on a consistent basis.

The Lions got rid of Kevin Jones and T.J. Duckett, but did retain Tatum Bell.  They drafted Kevin Smith in the third round. They are also instituting a zone-blocking scheme, which is catching on in the NFL.

The Lions still figure to be weak at running the ball in 2008. Zone blocking schemes do not make bad lineman good, nor does it make bad running backs great. I watched Green Bay make that transition and it took over a year to see results. 

Bell had good games in a zone-blocking scheme in Denver. He needs to step up his production in 2008. It will be interesting if Smith is able to have a breakout rookie year as the two split time.

The offensive line needs to improve on the 54 sacks they gave up in 2007. That is one reason why the Lions threw so many interceptions. Quarterbacks need time to find people down field. When you finish last in the NFL in rushing attempts, 31st in rushing yards gained, and give up the third most sacks, there aren’t many positives to look at on the offensive line.

That was the major motivation for selecting Gosder Cherilus in the first round. He will be asked to step in immediately.

On defense, they have to hope the people they added in the secondary can cover better. Even if the secondary did improve, they still need their front seven to stop the run and create pressure.

Look how a bad run defense hurt Bailey and Bly in Denver. Until the Lions improve on stopping the run, it will be impossible for them to get maximum production out of their secondary.

Prediction

The Lions were a team that I was not sold on last season, even when they started 6-2. I was one of the people that said that the team would crash in the second half of the season, and they did just that.

Matt Millen has proven time and time again that he cannot draft well, and that he is unable to put his coaches in a position to succeed. There are good parts, but they don’t fit together to make a good product.

The Lions have a good passing offense, and having a coordinator that isn’t quite so pass happy will take pressure off of that offense. Their receivers will cause problems for teams, and I expect a decent offensive showing from the Lions.

What I also expect is they will struggle to stop Indy, Jacksonville, and New Orleans on offense. I expect Tennessee and Tampa Bay to give them fits with their defense.

Finally, I think Green Bay and Minnesota will get the better of them in divisional games. What it amounts to is Kitna predicting 10 wins, while reality delivers another six or seven-win season, and another year of missing the playoffs.

Detroit Lions’ Record:  6-10—NFC North third place; No Playoffs

4) Chicago Bears

'07 Record: 7-9

Points Scored: 334 (18th)

Points Allowed: 348 (16th)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule: 136-120 (.531) (T-11th in NFL)

Strengths

The Bears have always had offensive issues. What they traditionally relied on was a very strong defense. In 2005, they finished first in points allowed and second in yards allowed. 

In their 2006 Super-Bowl season, they finished third and fifth in those areas. They have been one of the best teams at forcing turnovers. That has allowed the less-than-stellar offense to work with a short field, and control the clock with the run.

That never panned out last season. The Bears' offense was still not explosive, but the defense failed them. They finished 16th in points allowed and 28th in yards allowed. Brian Urlacher was hurt and did not play up to his standards, and Mike Brown was lost for the season. The Bears had a very injured unit.

The defensive line is still strong. Tommie Harris is a fantastic defensive tackle.  Alex Brown, Mark Anderson, and Adewale Ogunleye all provide a strong pass rush. They are still looking for a replacement for Tank Johnson to play opposite Harris at the defensive tackle.

The linebackers are still great too. Urlacher is one of the best in the business, but did battle injuries last season. He is also unhappy with his contract. At least Lance Briggs is happy, as he did sign the long-term deal he had been looking for the last couple of seasons. He is a three-time Pro Bowler.

In the secondary, Brown, Tillman, Vasher, R. Manning, D. Manning, and McBride give the Bears a number of people for coverage and making big plays. They just need everyone to stay healthy. If they can do that, they will be able to force turnovers, which is a must for a Cover-Two team. 

That will help the offense produce enough in short-field situations, giving the Bears' defense leads and rest. If that happens, there is still enough defensive talent to carry this team to the playoffs.

Last, but certainly not least, are the special teams. Devin Hester is the Bears' best weapon at this point. After just two seasons, he is in the discussion for best return man in the history of the NFL. He makes a lot of big plays in the return game and as a wide receiver. 

The Bears will look to involve him even more as a receiver in 2008. Brendon Ayanbadejo made the Pro Bowl as the special team’s specialist.  Finally, Robbie Gould is a solid kicker. The Bears probably have the best special teams in the NFL.

Weaknesses

The problem is that there just isn’t a lot of talent on offense. As bad as it was last year, it will be worse in 2008. That starts with the quarterbacks.

Grossman is very inconsistent and Orton is consistently poor. Neither has shown that they are capable of leading a team to sustained playoff success, even though Orton won 10 games as a rookie and Grossman was the quarterback for the Bears in their ‘06 Super-Bowl run. 

They need one of them to emerge, but there is no reason to believe either will.  The Bears did nothing to sign a quarterback in free agency or draft a young one to develop. I believe that was a huge mistake.

Then we get to the receivers: Marty Booker, Brandon Lloyd, Devin Hester, Mark Bradley, and Rashied Davis. None of those players are acceptable No. 3 receivers on average passing teams at this point. It is either possession receivers or home-run hitters. 

There is no receiver that is a complete package in that group. The fact that two of them must start is not good news for the passing game. Clark and Olson are quality tight ends, and are the best targets this team has in the passing game.

Then there is the offensive line. Fred Miller was released this summer at tackle.  They hope Chris Williams will be able to step in and contribute immediately. Tait, Metcallf, Kreutz, and Clair are all 30 or older. Garza is the youngster at 29.

The line is starting to get old, and the Bears could use an infusion of youth at those positions. Fred Miller was not the only thing holding that line back.

Finally, there is the running-back spot. Cedric Benson has been waived after two arrests in five weeks. Adrian Peterson, Garrett Wolfe, and Matt Forte round out a below average backfield.

As a whole, the Bears offense is among the most unproven in the NFL. There is not one unit that is worthy of being considered a team strength. It should finish among the worst in the NFL in terms of yards gained and points scored.

Prediction

I know Bears fans will point to the fact that they went to a Super Bowl in 2006 with an average offense. That they went 11-5 and won the division with the 26th ranked scoring offense. The feeling in Chicago is that defense wins championships, and the Bears have the defense.

I’m just not seeing it. Some of those key Bears players have started to get older. Brian Urlacher is starting to have health issues, and Mike Brown can never stay healthy. Without those two, this defense becomes average very quickly.

Last season, the Bears defense couldn’t carry this team, and they really struggled as a team to consistently win. The Bears first winning streak was in Week 16 and 17, after they had been eliminated from playoff contention.

This year, the offense is even worse. Benson, Berrian, and Muhammad were nothing extraordinary, but they were better than what the Bears have now. Brian Griese is no longer around if Rex Grossman struggles. There are a lot of questions on offense and not enough answers on defense. The Bears are not the same defense they were in 2005 and 2006.

The Bears get a very tough schedule. The Colts, Jaguars, and Titans all have tremendous defenses. The Packers have a young and upcoming defense. The Vikings have one of the best defenses in the NFL, and the Bucs are traditionally tough on defense.

That is half their schedule, where they may not score more than 10-14 points per game. The defense will keep the Bears in those games, but I’m not sure the defense will be able to carry them to many victories.

The Bears window has closed in my opinion, and it is time to look toward overhauling the offense and adding some younger pieces on defense. Only time will tell how long it takes the Bears to do that.

Chicago Bears’ Record: 5-11—NFC North fourth place; No Playoffs

This is how I see the NFC North playing out in 2008. Next week I will turn my focus to the AFC West. I look forward to reading your comments about what you expect from your favorite team.

Derek Lofland is the NFL director at Fantasy Football Maniaxs.com