1 Prediction for Each MLB Team Ahead of Next Month's Trade Deadline
The truncated 2020 MLB season will significantly reduce the distance between Opening Day (July 23) and the trade deadline (Aug. 31).
Clubs will have less than six weeks to decide if they're buying or selling and to make possible franchise-altering deals.
Based on credible rumors and our own speculation, here is one deadline prediction for each club, ranging from the mundane (standing pat or making minor moves) to the splashy (trading away or acquiring a superstar).
Arizona Diamondbacks: They'll Upgrade the Bullpen
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The Arizona Diamondbacks boosted their roster with the offseason additions of left-hander Madison Bumgarner and outfielders Kole Calhoun and Starling Marte.
Incumbents such as Ketel Marte give them a deep lineup, and the rotation is solid despite veteran Mike Leake opting out.
The D-backs also have a strong bullpen led by closer Archie Bradley. But other than Andrew Chafin (3.76 ERA, 68 SO, 52.2 IP), they don't have a go-to late-inning lefty.
Assuming Arizona is in the wild-card mix or even nipping at the Los Angeles Dodgers' heels in the National League West, this is an area where the club could upgrade.
Atlanta Braves: They'll Acquire 3B Kris Bryant
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The Atlanta Braves are well-positioned to contend in the NL East with a deep bullpen, solid starting rotation and talented young lineup fronted by Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies.
But first baseman Freddie Freeman, a key offensive cog, is still working his way back from a frightening bout of COVID-19.
Over at third base, the Braves are counting on the duo of Johan Camargo (.233/.279/.384, 98 G) and Austin Riley (.226/.279/.471, 80 G) after losing Josh Donaldson to free agency.
Atlanta was linked to Chicago Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant this winter. The 2016 NL MVP is set to earn the prorated portion of $18.6 million in 2020 and could become a free agent after the 2021 season if he isn't extended. He'd also likely cost Atlanta at least a couple of top names, such as outfielder Cristian Pache and right-hander Kyle Wright, from a farm system we ranked No. 3 in the game.
But if the Braves want to go all-in and try to dive deeper into the playoffs than last year's division series defeat, this is the kind of splash they should make.
Baltimore Orioles: They'll Trade RHP Mychal Givens
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The Baltimore Orioles are all but guaranteed to finish in last place in the AL East. There's young talent in the pipeline, such as outfielder Austin Hays and catcher Adley Rutschman, but it'll be a few years until the O's are contenders.
With that in mind, Baltimore should turn any and all veteran chips into prospects by the deadline.
The most obvious piece of trade bait could be right-hander Mychal Givens, who owns a 3.40 ERA in five seasons with the Orioles and averaged 12.3 K/9 in 2019.
The 30-year-old is also controllable through 2021, meaning he could help a contender down the 2020 stretch while also adding value next season.
Boston Red Sox: They'll Mostly Stand Pat
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The Boston Red Sox already made a headline-grabbing trade when they sent franchise right fielder Mookie Betts and left-hander David Price to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
They got a decent package in return, fronted by potential All-Star outfielder Alex Verdugo. The Sox have enough talent left to contend for at least a wild-card spot.
But there are questions in the back end of the bullpen and with the starting rotation, where Boston will be counting on Eduardo Rodriguez and Nathan Eovaldi with Price (who opted out for 2020) in L.A. and Chris Sale out after Tommy John surgery.
Expect Boston to hang around the postseason race long enough to keep veterans such as outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. But also expect the Sox to hold back on any notable additions that would deplete their No. 25-ranked farm system.
Chicago Cubs: They'll Trade 3B Kris Bryant
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We already made the case for why and how the Braves could acquire Bryant. So why would the Cubs do it?
Chicago plays in a deep division in which only the Pittsburgh Pirates are unlikely to contend. The St. Louis Cardinals, Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds all have credible playoff aspirations.
The Cubbies aren't sunk. If Jon Lester and Yu Darvish stay healthy and effective, the starting rotation could be a strength. The bullpen is a bigger question mark unless closer Craig Kimbrel rebounds from a disastrous 2019, but that's an area where Chicago could add at the deadline.
If the Cubs are in serious contention by late August, the odds of them trading Bryant are slim. If they stumble, though, this could be the moment to move him for optimum value, when he still has a year-plus of control left.
It'll be tough for North Side fans to swallow, but unless a massive extension is in the works, moving Bryant sooner than later is what's best for the Cubs' future.
Chicago White Sox: They'll Acquire OF Joc Pederson
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The Chicago White Sox were connected to Dodgers outfielder Joc Pederson this winter. Now they appear ready to roll with an outfield of Eloy Jimenez, touted rookie Luis Robert and offseason trade acquisition Nomar Mazara.
That group has plenty of upside. Jimenez and Robert in particular have star potential. But Mazara (minus-four defensive runs saved) and Jimenez (minus-11 DRS) are liabilities with the leather, and Robert, at age 22, may need some seasoning in center field despite his athleticism.
Enter Pederson, who posted 12 DRS in 2019 while capably logging innings at all three outfield positions. And Pederson's lefty power bat could be a nice complement to Robert's and Jimenez's right-handed sticks (Mazara swings from the left side).
As for the Dodgers, they have a projected starting outfield of AJ Pollock, Cody Bellinger and Betts, with Enrique Hernandez and Chris Taylor providing depth. Pederson is expendable in his contract year.
Cincinnati Reds: They'll Upgrade the Bullpen
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The Reds, as mentioned, are contenders in the NL Central.
They made some nice offensive additions—including Mike Moustakas, Nick Castellanos and Shogo Akiyama—and have a strong starting rotation fronted by Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray and Trevor Bauer. And don't forget their soft early schedule.
There are questions in the bullpen, however.
Closer Raisel Iglesias and setup man Pedro Strop posted ERAs of 4.16 and 4.97, respectively, in 2019. Both have top-notch resumes and could easily rebound.
But don't be surprised if the Reds go shopping for a late-inning arm or two at the deadline.
Cleveland Indians: They'll Hold on to SS Francisco Lindor...for Now
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Like the Cubs with Bryant, Cleveland faces a tough choice with franchise shortstop Francisco Lindor.
Cleveland has a shot to contend in the AL Central. But it didn't make any significant offseason additions, and the defending division champion Minnesota Twins are the favorites. The ChiSox are on the rise.
Lindor is a four-time All-Star with power and superlative defense at a premium position entering his age-26 season. He could net a bushel of prospects and MLB-ready talent.
Also like Bryant, he's controllable through 2021, but Cleveland almost certainly won't pay what it takes to lock him up long-term.
This one is a toss-up, and a lot will depend on how Cleveland gets out of the gate. But assuming the team is within striking distance of the playoffs in late August, our gut feeling is it'll wait until the offseason to seriously entertain offers for Lindor.
Colorado Rockies: They'll Trade 3B Nolan Arenado
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On the subject of superstars who could swap laundry this season, let's take a look at Colorado Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado.
In February 2019, after making back-to-back playoff appearances, the Colorado Rockies signed Arenado to an eight-year, $260 million extension.
They lost 91 games that season, and Arenado's name popped up in trade chatter. Subsequently, he spoke out.
"There's a lot of disrespect from people there that I don't want to be a part of," he told MLB.com's Thomas Harding. "... I'm not mad at the trade rumors. There's more to it."
Whatever the issues are, it's clear there's acrimony between the Rockies and their franchise player. Arenado can opt out of his deal after the 2021 season, but we're betting he leaves Colorado sooner than that. Specifically, before the 2020 deadline.
Where will he land? We'll get to that soon.
Detroit Tigers: They'll Trade LHP Matthew Boyd
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Matthew Boyd posted a 4.56 ERA in 2019 but averaged a career-best 11.6 strikeouts per nine innings in 185.1 frames. He's 29 years old and controllable through 2022.
He could be part of the future for the rebuilding Detroit Tigers. But Detroit is at least a few years away from contending, and it has a farm system stocked with high-upside arms including Casey Mize, Matt Manning and Tarik Skubal.
The Tigers dangled Boyd this winter, according to MLB Network's Jon Morosi, though their asking price was reportedly an MLB-ready impact position player.
If Boyd throws well in the early going, a pitching-hungry contender might be willing to meet that price or something close to it.
Houston Astros: They'll Upgrade the Bullpen
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The Houston Astros have an above-average bullpen led by the trio of Roberto Osuna (2.63 ERA, 10.1 K/9), Ryan Pressly (2.32 ERA, 11.9 K/9) and Joe Smith (1.80 ERA, 7.9 K/9).
But the defending AL champs lost key relievers this winter, including Will Harris, Hector Rondon and Collin McHugh. Osuna still hasn't faced live hitting as he works his way back from the layoff, and he may not be ready for Opening Day. And Smith opted out for 2020.
With ace Gerrit Cole now in the Bronx, the depth of Houston's pen could be particularly important.
Even if Osuna is ready soon and the current unit performs well, the Astros will almost certainly go shopping from the relief shelves before the deadline.
Kansas City Royals: They'll Keep INF/OF Whit Merrifield
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The Kansas City Royals are exceedingly unlikely to contend in the AL Central in 2020, and probably won't be a serious playoff factor for a couple years.
Whit Merrifield is a versatile veteran entering his age-31 season who should interest any number of buyers.
This seems like a natural, roller-skate-meet-key trade opportunity.
But Merrifield is signed through 2022 with a club option for 2023. He led the majors in hits each of the past two seasons, is a fan and front-office favorite and a leader for younger players.
If someone blows the Royals away before Aug. 31...sure. But the safe money is on Merrifield staying in K.C. at least until this winter and possibly beyond.
Los Angeles Angels: They'll Acquire Pitching
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If the Los Angeles Angels want to get Mike Trout back to the postseason (where he's played a paltry three career games), they'll need to do more than sign star third baseman Anthony Rendon.
Don't get us wrong. Adding Rendon was a solid move for the Halos, who can also look forward to the emergence of outfield prospect Jo Adell.
But the Angels didn't do nearly enough to improve a pitching staff that ranked 25th in baseball with a 5.12 ERA last season.
Yes, the possible return to the hill of two-way star Shohei Ohtani is tantalizing, but his durability after Tommy John surgery is a question until further notice. Andrew Heaney has excellent stuff, but he threw only 95.1 innings in 2019.
If the Angels maintain contact with the Astros and Oakland A's in the AL West into mid-August, expect them to be in on any and all available impact arms.
Los Angeles Dodgers: They Won't Make Another Blockbuster Trade
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The Dodgers already swung the Betts/Price trade. They have a loaded lineup, a strong starting rotation (despite Price's 2020 opt-out) and a bullpen that could be particularly potent if free-agent acquisition Blake Treinen returns to the form that saw him post a 0.78 ERA with the A's in 2018.
It's always possible L.A. will dip into its No. 9-ranked farm system to pull off another blockbuster before the deadline. The Dodgers haven't hoisted a Commissioner's Trophy since 1988, and they're clearly in full-throttle win-now mode.
But lower-profile trades to upgrade the pen and rotation or swap out spare pieces such as Pederson feel more likely than another landscape-altering deal between now and Aug. 31.
This might be baseball's most complete team. Now, all they need to do is prove it.
Miami Marlins: They'll Trade INF/OF Jonathan Villar
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Jonathan Villar had an excellent season with the Orioles in 2019, slashing .274/.339/.453 with 24 home runs and 40 stolen bases.
He's a curious fit for the rebuilding Miami Marlins, who acquired him from Baltimore this winter. He's defensively versatile and could provide leadership on a young team, but he's also entering a contract year.
Sure, the Fish could extend him in-season or re-sign him this winter if he repeats his '19 success in South Beach.
But assuming the Marlins don't shock the world and contend in the deep NL East in 2020, they would be wise to swap Villar to a contender and net a few prospects.
Milwaukee Brewers: They Won't Trade LHP Josh Hader
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The Milwaukee Brewers play in a tough NL Central division. They lost some important pieces this offseason, including Mike Moustakas, Yasmani Grandal, Eric Thames and Gio Gonzalez.
Yes, they have Christian Yelich at the forefront of the offense. They have a balanced starting rotation, even if they lack a true ace. They have a shot at returning to the playoffs.
But what if they decided to trade All-Star reliever Josh Hader?
It seems unthinkable. Hader might be the best closer in baseball after averaging 16.4 K/9 with 37 saves and a 2.62 ERA last season. The left-hander is 26 years old and under club control through 2023.
Yet they at least listened on Hader trades this winter, according to The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal. If they listen again, their phones will ring off the hook.
If the Brew Crew are buried before the deadline, maybe they go for a massive prospect haul. But with so many years remaining before Hader can test free agency and with Milwaukee built to be a contender, we'll say it keeps the southpaw bullpen star for now.
Minnesota Twins: They'll Mostly Stand Pat
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The Minnesota Twins boosted an offense that set an all-time record with 307 home runs in 2019 by signing third baseman Josh Donaldson.
They strengthened their starting rotation by acquiring veterans Kenta Maeda and Rich Hill. Their bullpen checked in at No. 6 in our rankings.
Every club can improve, and injuries and underperformance can always alter the calculus. But the Twinkies are well-equipped to repeat as AL Central champions and have the firepower to tussle with the Yankees and Astros in the Junior Circuit as a whole.
Minor moves are possible, but don't expect the mid-market Twins to break the bank or raid their farm system with splashy blockbusters this summer.
New York Mets: They Won't Trade RHP Marcus Stroman
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Right-hander Marcus Stroman posted a 3.77 ERA with 60 strikeouts in 59.2 innings for the New York Mets after the Queens club acquired him in a trade with the Toronto Blue Jays.
Especially with Noah Syndergaard lost to Tommy John surgery, Stroman will be an essential piece of New York's rotation behind ace and reigning two-time NL Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom.
The 29-year-old Stroman is set to hit free agency after the season. If the Mets slip in the standings in the crowded NL East, his name will surely feature in trade rumors.
But the Mets look like contenders, and Stroman is a New York native who may want to re-sign in the offseason. We'll say he pitches well enough—and the Mets win enough—to keep him off the deadline trade block.
New York Yankees: They'll Add a Left-Handed Bat
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Like the Dodgers, the New York Yankees are pretty darn close to a complete club. Their lineup is stacked with powerful bats that had the layoff to get healthy. They added Cole to the starting rotation, and we named their bullpen No. 1 (though that was before closer Aroldis Chapman's positive COVID-19 test).
Barring a major injury, the Yanks probably won't do anything drastic on the trade market.
It is worth noting that New York's lineup leans very right-handed. Outfielders Brett Gardner and Mike Tauchman are the most high-profile left-handed hitters, along with switch-hitter Aaron Hicks, who is coming off Tommy John surgery.
All of their best bats, including Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, wield the lumber from the right side.
If a complementary left-handed power bat capable of taking shots at Yankee Stadium's short right field porch is on the market, look for the Bronx Bombers to swoop in.
Oakland Athletics: They'll Add a Left-Handed Bat
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Like the Yankees, the Athletics offense skews to the right. Other than first baseman Matt Olson, every member of Oakland's projected starting lineup is right-handed.
That's not an emergency. Oakland is equipped to compete as is, as it did by snagging a wild-card slot last year.
The A's could gild an already-stout bullpen at the deadline or add a starter, though Jesus Luzardo should resume his path toward ace-hood after returning from a COVID-19 hiatus.
If Oakland shops for a lefty bat, one name to keep an eye on is veteran Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Gregory Polanco, though his recent coronavirus diagnosis complicates matters.
Either way, expect Oakland to be active at the deadline in its typically low-key, small-market fashion.
Philadelphia Phillies: They'll Upgrade the Bullpen
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Philadelphia Phillies closer Hector Neris endured a horrible 2018 season (5.10 ERA in 47.2 innings) but bounced back in 2019 and posted a 2.93 ERA with 28 saves.
After that, the Phillies bullpen is short on reliable options. Vince Velasquez could force his way into the rotation with a strong spring, but he could also be an interesting power arm in the late innings.
Seranthony Dominguez, meanwhile, is set to undergo Tommy John surgery, and after that it's an uncertain mix that includes Jose Alvarez and Adam Morgan.
This is a clear area of weakness for the Phils, who'll have their work cut out for them competing in a tough division.
The bullpen market will be competitive, as it is every trade season, but Philadelphia should be aggressive if it's still in the race.
Pittsburgh Pirates: They'll Trade OF Gregory Polanco...If They Can
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The Pirates appear destined to be cellar-dwellers in the NL Central.
They have some exciting young pieces, including right-hander Mitch Keller, who should front the rotation in 2020, and third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes, who appears to have an ETA of 2021.
The Bucs' main focus this season should be on trading any veteran assets and restocking the farm, as they did by moving Starling Marte to the D-backs this winter.
As mentioned, Polanco is a veteran left-handed swinger who hit 23 home runs as recently as 2018. His COVID-19 diagnosis adds uncertainty.
But the 28-year-old, who is owed the prorated portion of $8.6 million this year and $11.6 million in 2021, is exactly the type of player the Pirates should try to ship out.
San Diego Padres: They'll Acquire Starting Pitching
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The San Diego Padres have an emerging offensive core built around shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. and third baseman Manny Machado. And they boast one of the best bullpens in baseball led by closer Kirby Yates.
The Pads have a chance to be contenders in the short season, but they could stand to boost their starting rotation.
Chris Paddack is a credible No. 1. But Garrett Richards is still working his way back from Tommy John surgery and pitched just 8.2 innings in 2019. The 32-year-old remains a question mark from a durability standpoint.
Dinelson Lamet missed bats with 105 strikeouts in 73 innings last season, but this group could use another top-tier arm.
The good news is the Friars have the game's No. 4 farm system. They can afford to give up a few prospects without mortgaging the future.
San Francisco Giants: They'll Trade RHP Jeff Samardzija
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Even before catcher and franchise leader Buster Posey opted out for 2020, the San Francisco Giants were unlikely to contend this season.
They have young talent on a rising farm system highlighted by catcher Joey Bart, who could see significant action with Posey out. But most of San Francisco's top prospects are a year or more away.
That means the club should look to trade veterans. Guys such as first baseman Brandon Belt could generate interest, especially if San Francisco is willing to eat some salary.
But the best bet might be right-hander Jeff Samardzija, who posted a 3.52 ERA in 181.1 frames last season. He is owed the prorated portion of $19.8 million in 2020 and is set to hit free agency after the season.
As an experienced rental who can eat innings, he could net a prospect or two for the rebuilding Giants.
Seattle Mariners: They'll Trade 3B Kyle Seager
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The future is bright for the Seattle Mariners, who have the game's No. 2 farm system. But top prospects such as outfielder Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez are on the horizon.
Others such as right-hander Logan Gilbert and first baseman Evan White are closer to making a big league impact, and could even do so in 2020. But the M's appear destined for the AL West basement.
They don't have a gaggle of obvious veteran trade candidates, though third baseman Kyle Seager generated interest over the winter, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.
Seager hit just .232 last year, but he's swatted 20 or more homers every year since 2012 and has a Gold Glove and an All-Star nod to his name.
He's owed $18.5 million in 2021 with a $15 million club option for 2022 that becomes a player option if he's dealt, meaning the 32-year-old would be more than a rental for any club that acquired him.
St. Louis Cardinals: They'll Acquire 3B Nolan Arenado
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OK, about the team we predict will acquire Arenado from the Rockies (drumroll please)...the St. Louis Cardinals.
This almost happened recently. This winter, the two sides were reportedly close on a trade that would have sent top prospect Nolan Gorman and right-hander Dakota Hudson to Colorado.
The deal fell through, but that doesn't mean it can't be rekindled.
The Cardinals won the NL Central in 2019 despite finishing 19th with 764 runs scored and 21st with a .737 OPS, and they lost outfielder Marcell Ozuna to free agency.
They could use a big bat to join first baseman Paul Goldschmidt in the heart of the order, and they don't come much bigger than Arenado.
The opt-out after 2021 could be a wet blanket, but the Cardinals were able to work out a long-term extension with Goldschmidt after acquiring him from the D-backs.
With Matt Carpenter likely to get most of his at-bats at designated hitter, 25-year-old Tommy Edman currently tops St. Louis' third base depth chart. Needless to say, Areando—a five-time All-Star and seven-time Gold Glove winner—would be a game-changing upgrade.
Tampa Bay Rays: They'll Acquire a Power Bat
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The Tampa Bay Rays won 96 games in 2019 and have the pitching, defense and balanced lineup to challenge the Yankees in the AL East.
But the Rays could use some more thump.
They finished 21st in baseball with 217 homers last season, and no one other than outfielder Austin Meadows (with 33 homers) hit more than 21.
They're a team to watch even without an elite slugger. And as a small-market club on a tight budget, they shouldn't dig too deep into their No. 1-ranked farm system.
But an ancillary bat with some pop should be on their pre-Aug. 31 wish list.
Texas Rangers: They'll Add Bullpen Depth
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If everything goes right, the Texas Rangers could have one of the deepest starting rotations in the game with Corey Kluber, Mike Minor, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles.
Their bullpen, however, could hold them back from competing with the Astros and A's in the AL West.
Closer Jose Leclerc posted a 4.33 last season. Setup man Rafael Montero returned from Tommy John surgery to post a 2.48 ERA in 2019 but threw just 29 innings. Joely Rodriguez posted a 6.33 ERA for the Phillies in 2017 but is returning to MLB after two (admittedly superlative) seasons in Japan.
If the Rangers' starting pitchers and key offensive pieces such as Joey Gallo, Willie Calhoun and Rougned Odor keep them in contention into August, the pen will be an obvious area for improvement.
Toronto Blue Jays: They'll Trade RHP Ken Giles
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There is a world where the Toronto Blue Jays ride homegrown stars-in-waiting such as Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio—plus an improved starting rotation led by 2019 NL ERA leader Hyun-Jin Ryu—to contention in 2020.
In a 60-game sprint, anything is possible.
More likely, however, the Jays will wait their turn behind the Yankees and Rays, and their window will open in a year or two.
That brings us to closer Ken Giles. The 29-year-old is in his contract year, is owed the prorated portion of a $9.6 million salary and is coming off a season in which he posted a 1.87 ERA with 14.1 K/9.
If the Jays are hanging tough in late August, he might remain north of the border. But if they aren't, contenders in need of bullpen help will line up.
Toronto could add to its stash of burgeoning talent and, if it wants, make a move to re-up Giles in the offseason.
Washington Nationals: They'll Acquire a Left-Handed Reliever
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The Washington Nationals probably won't repeat as MLB champions. Sorry, Nats fans. That's the safe bet.
But they should be competitive in the NL East with a sterling rotation topped by Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin, and a lineup that lost Rendon to free agency but has emerging stars in outfielders Juan Soto and Victor Robles. They also made savvy veteran additions such as Eric Thames and Starlin Castro.
What the Nationals lack is left-handed bullpen depth behind southpaw closer Sean Doolittle, who has made overtures about opting out.
Even if Doolittle plays in 2020, Washington will almost surely seek a lefty reliever or two at the trade deadline as it tries to defy the historical odds and win a second consecutive title.
All statistics courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.
