UFC 251: Odds and Predictions for Usman vs. Masvidal Full Card

It's Christmas in July for UFC fans as Jorge Masvidal has stepped up on short notice to anchor a massive UFC 251 main card against Kamaru Usman for the welterweight title. 

Gilbert Burns was initially the challenger to Usman's title, but a positive COVID-19 test forced him off the card. Now, Gamebred has stepped in to keep the championship headliner intact and get his first crack at UFC gold after 48 career fights. 

The 170-pound title isn't the only one up for grabs in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. There's a championship triple-header in store as Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway run their fight back with the featherweight title on the line, while Jose Aldo vs. Petr Yan will determine who claims the vacated bantamweight belt. 

There's plenty more to like on the card as the UFC brings its first event to Fight Island to open its current home for international bouts. 

Main Card (ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET)

• Kamaru Usman (-320; bet $320 to win $100) vs. Jorge Masvidal (+260; $100 bet wins $260) (welterweight title)
• Alexander Volkanovski (-220) vs. Max Holloway (+185) (featherweight title)
• Petr Yan (-240) vs. Jose Aldo (+200) (vacant bantamweight title)
• Jessica Andrade (+175) vs. Rose Namajunas (-200)
• Amanda Ribas (-1000) vs. Paige VanZant (+650)

Prelims (ESPN at 8 p.m. ET)

• Volkan Oezdemir (-160) vs. Jiri Prochazka (+140)
• Muslim Salikhov (-120) vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (+100)
• Makwan Amirkhani (-190) vs. Danny Henry (+170)
• Roman Bogatov (+160) vs. Leonardo Santos (-180)
  

Early Prelims (UFC Fight Pass at 6 p.m. ET)

• Maxim Grishin (-105) vs. Marcin Tybura (-115)
• Raulian Paiva (-185) vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov (+165)
• Vanessa Melo (+185) vs. Karol Rosa (-220)
• Martin Day (-165) vs. Davey Grant (+145)

Predicted winners in italics. Odds via Caesars Palace

Usman Downs Masvidal

No one can say Masvidal doesn't back up his talk. His anytime, anywhere persona is perfectly exemplified by the situation he finds himself in Saturday. 

Boarding a jet from Las Vegas to Fight Island just six days out from the biggest fight of his life is the kind of thing that has propelled him to stardom. The former street fighter has been willing to fight anyone at any time throughout his entire career, and his run in 2019 has finally seen him break out. 

But taking that next step from BMF title holder to actual UFC champion is going to be quite the undertaking. 

For all of Masvidal's striking and brawling glory, an opponent who can close the distance and force takedowns has always been his Achilles heel. He was taken down four times by Demian Maia, three times by Benson Henderson and another time by Lorenz Larkin in three of his 13 career losses. 

Now he takes on a fighter in Usman who once took down Rafael dos Anjos 12 times in one fight. The 33-year-old is a willing striker, but he's made his name with relentless pressure and the ability to dominate on the ground. 

Every round starts standing up so Masvidal has a chance. After all, one of the most prolific wrestlers he has faced was Ben Askren, and he ended that in five seconds. 

Short of a similar result, it's hard to see him beating the odds of taking a fight on six days' notice and defeating the best welterweight in the world right now. 

Prediction: Usman via decision

Volkanovski Edges Out Holloway

The first fight between Volkanovski and Holloway was a tale of two halves, with the former getting off to a shockingly good start. 

Blessed is usually a slower starter who just continues to add volume as the fight goes on, but he was put on his back foot literally and figuratively by Volkanovski. His leg kicks completely threw the Hawaiian off his game and presented a challenge for him to figure out. 

Ultimately, he did figure it out but it was too little too late. Holloway stormed back to take the final two rounds on two judges' cards. But it wasn't enough to retain his title.

Heading into the second fight, the question is whether we see a similar dynamic to start or if they pick up right where they left off with close rounds. We saw Volkanovski win his rounds much more convincingly than Holloway won his last time out. 

That might be the strongest indication of who will come out on top here. When both fighters were fresh, it was Volkanovski who looked better. With the time to look at how he faded over the stretch, he should be able to formulate a game plan to make sure those mistakes aren't repeated. 

Finishing Holloway isn't an easy task. He's only been finished by submission. However, it wouldn't be surprising to see Volkanovski win in a similar fashion to how he did last time, taking an early lead and riding out in the final rounds. 

Prediction: Volkanovski via decision

Yan Finishes Aldo

Yan has the ability to launch himself into notoriety on Saturday night and could be one of the evening's biggest winners. 

Not only is he getting his first title shot in a division that has garnered attention recently, but he's also doing it against a legend in Aldo. The former WEC star and longtime UFC featherweight champion is one of the best lighter division fighters of all time. 

He's also 33 years old, fighting in a division that he has yet to win in and bringing in the twilight of a Hall of Fame career marked by his fair share of wars. 

Conversely, Yan is 27 years old with 15 total fights and six under the UFC banner to his name. He's hitting his prime and has looked excellent each time out. He's an excellent striker with crisp combinations and power. 

He knocked out Urijah Faber in his last bout, and while he couldn't draw the finish against Jimmie Rivera and John Dodson, those two fighters have only been knocked out once between the two of them. The shots he hit Rivera and Dodson with would have finished most, though. 

Aldo didn't really give a convincing account of himself as a bantamweight champion in his lone appearance in the division. He lost a close split decision to Marlon Moraes and doesn't look anything like the man who once dominated the featherweights. 

Maybe the veteran will turn back the clock at the weekend, but that's not the expectation. Instead, Yan will likely find success with his vicious boxing, and we've seen Aldo get knocked out by Holloway and Conor McGregor. 

Yan might not be on their level at this point, but Aldo hasn't improved since those fights, either.

Prediction: Yan via second-round TKO