7 Free-Agent Steals Contenders Can Find for the Mid-Level Exception
The 2020 NBA offseason was already short on cash even before the league's finances were dealt a massive blow by pandemic-induced hiatus.
Now, the pool of potential spenders is even thinner, and almost all of them are focused on the future.
But every team will have access to some version of the mid-level exception, which could be particularly valuable in this market. It's the best path to roster improvement for most contenders, and it might have extra buying power with a number of second-tier veterans available and of seemingly no use to rebuilders.
Who could teams go after with their respective MLEs? Our crystal ball says the following seven free agents should be available for that price.
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Goran Dragic
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Goran Dragic's resume suggests a big payday should be imminent. His list of accolades include an All-Star appearance, an All-NBA selection and a Most Improved Player award. Before this season was suspended, he was one of only 15 players averaging 16 points, five assists and two triples.
Then again, he'll turn 34 on May 6. He played only 36 games in 2018-19 because of knee surgery. Unless the Miami Heat extend a bloated one-year offer—they're one of several dreamers saving cap space for 2021 (i.e., the summer of Giannis Antetokounmpo)—it's hard to imagine anyone breaking the bank for him. Even most rebuilders have already addressed the lead guard spot.
If Dragic looks outside of South Beach—either for the security of a longer deal or because the Heat have spent big elsewhere—he could add a massive scoring punch to any bench unit. Some long-time starters never grow comfortable with the idea of a reserve role, but the Dragon has already reaped the rewards of the switch.
"This role coming from the bench, for sure, it's going to extend my career," Dragic told Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald. "I'm going to be able to play longer. At the end of the day, this is the goal. I want to play as much as I can, many years in this great association."
Kris Dunn
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Kris Dunn doesn't offer a ton at the offensive end. He's a low-volume (0.6 career makes per game), low-efficiency (30.6 percent) three-point shooter, so he can clog that end when teams sag off of him. The extra congestion also limits what he can do as an inside-the-arc scorer and table-setter.
But without those offensive issues, the No. 5 overall pick in 2016 would never even sniff the clearance section. The Chicago Bulls might have even extended him already.
He's nothing short of dominant on defense. He guards all three perimeter positions, and he can switch onto smaller 4s in a pinch. He torments ball-handlers and attacks passing lanes, netting him the second-most steals in the league per game and the most deflections per 36 minutes. When he looks in the mirror, he sees the reincarnation of a former defensive menace who used "first team all-defense" as his battle cry.
"I feel like Tony Allen, he just fits what I do," Dunn told SB Nation's Michael Pina. "He'll pounce on you. He was strong, physical. I think he could 1 through 3, even 4s. I feel like I can guard some 4s sometimes. I feel like that's a good comparison because he's got that dog, he's got that bloodhound in him."
Not every team is in the market for a defensive specialist. Not every club can afford to deploy a non-shooting lead guard. But those who check both boxes should see major bargain potential in Dunn. Before the season was suspended, he ranked 13th overall and second among guards in ESPN.com's defensive real plus-minus and seventh leaguewide in FiveThirtyEight's defensive RAPTOR.
Derrick Jones Jr.
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Casual NBA fans know Derrick Jones Jr. for his aerial exploits, but free-agency shoppers will be drawn to his age (23), defensive versatility and elite athleticism.
Normally, that trio would keep most players off the market, but the Heat are watching their future spending as closely as anyone. While they could give mid-level money to Jones and still have enough for a 2021 max-level splash, they might want to preserve that extra space until they know which (if any) star is coming to ensure they can use it on the best possible complement.
If that leaves Jones up for grabs, he could have suitors from every point on the organizational timeline. Rebuilders will flock to his youth and upside. Contenders will covet his malleability on defense and ability to impact the game as an athlete.
He has only 163 career regular-season games under his belt, and his jump shot is very much a work in progress (career 27.6 percent from three). But even without the experience or shooting efficiency, he tied for 56th on FiveThirtyEight's catch-all RAPTOR rating.
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Joe Harris
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The Brooklyn Nets helped Joe Harris find his footing after he started his career with two frustratingly quiet campaigns on the Cleveland Cavaliers. If the sharpshooter had his way, he'd prefer staying in his first real NBA home, especially since the Nets sent their ceiling through the roof by adding Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving last summer.
But Brooklyn's costs are rising ($123.7 million between only six players next season), and the franchise seems focused on finding a third star. That could move Harris to the back burner or even out of the organization's plans entirely.
His offensive arsenal would catch the eye of any contender with a perimeter vacancy. He's an elite shooter from distance. He has the 15th-most made three-pointers since 2017-18 and the fifth-best conversion rate among players with 100-plus triples over that stretch. He's also a skilled finisher at the basket, boasting a 65.9 shooting percentage inside of three feet in that same span.
In a normal market, Harris might be on the verge of a hefty payday. But money is tight, and budgets are getting smaller. Unless the Nets throw a big deal his way, he might have trouble getting a cap-space team to splurge on him. He's an expert role player, but in this climate, that might fetch him only MLE money.
Paul Millsap
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Paul Millsap might move into a different tax bracket by taking an MLE after playing this season on an enormous $30.4 million salary. But with his NBA odometer rising and his counting categories trending the opposite direction, conditions could be prefect for the versatile veteran to join basketball's bargain bin.
"Millsap is 35 years old and in the middle of his 14th NBA season," B/R's Andy Bailey noted. "He's missed 76 games (possibly with more to come) due to injuries over the course of the last three seasons with the Denver Nuggets. It may officially be time for Millsap to enter the ring-chasing portion of his successful-but-still-lacking-a-title career."
If Millsap is open to a modestly priced relocation, contenders would be scrambling to bring him on board. His All-Star days might be behind him, but his nearly career-long habit of making his teams better continues. In fact, the third-seeded Nuggets fared 12 points better per 100 possessions with him than without, easily the biggest net differential among their rotation regulars.
His skill set still stretches far than most. He didn't have a top-50 average in points, rebounds or blocks or a top-50 total in made three-pointers, but only 21 players could match his production in all four. If Denver chooses to re-sign the younger, more athletic Jerami Grant, Millsap might offer a different contender missing-piece potential at a role player's price.
Tristan Thompson
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In a vacuum, Tristan Thompson seems ready to cash in.
The 29-year-old should be in the heart of his prime. He just engineered arguably his best season to date, and he's one of only 11 players to average 10 points and 10 rebounds in each of the last two campaigns. His grunt-work game is easy to fit in any winning formula, since he thrives as a pick-and-roll screener, a pick-and-roll defender, a relentless rebounder and a hard screen-setter.
For teams seeking high-level experience, Thompson is an NBA champion who played 78 postseason games over a four-year stretch of annual Finals appearances.
But free agency doesn't take place in a vacuum. Timing matters. Market conditions change. None of it bodes well for Thompson's bank account (though it should already be in good shape since he made $82 million during his last free-agency venture). There just isn't a great demand for non-shooting bigs.
At a reasonable rate, though, it's easier to sacrifice spacing to soak up all of his interior gifts. Whether he operates as a support starter or the first bench big, he can bolster a contender's frontcourt at both ends.
Hassan Whiteside
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The last time Hassan Whiteside hit the open market, the Heat handed him a four-year, $98 million max deal.
He isn't sniffing that number in this climate.
There's a glut of interior bigs available and a shortage of obvious buyers. The Portland Trail Blazers, his current club, have Jusuf Nurkic coming back, and they need to free up more minutes at the 5 for Zach Collins. The forward-focused spenders won't give Whiteside much of a look, and the Heat are probably even less interested in a reunion.
With that said, he'll offer a ton of production for whichever team wants it. This is Whiteside's sixth straight season of averaging a double-double, and his numbers have never been more meaningful. Portland has been 8.8 points better per 100 possessions with him than without, and despite the narrative that follows him, his teams have usually landed in the green during his floor time.
He has never had a better true shooting percentage or a higher assists average. His rebound and block totals and free-throw percentage are all the second-best of his career. He looks like he's improving, but his pay rate likely won't reflect that.
All stats courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball Reference unless otherwise noted.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @ZachBuckleyNBA.
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