Denzel Mims' Fantasy Outlook After Jets Select WR in 2020 NFL Draft

If Denzel Mims' fantasy value rises as quickly as his NFL draft stock, he'll be an elite wide receiver by the end of the 2020 season.

The 22-year-old left Baylor after catching 186 passes for 2,925 yards and 28 touchdowns in four years.

To start 2019, he was mostly an afterthought when it came to the best wideouts in the upcoming draft class.

The Bears star failed to crack the top 32 overall players or top 15 receivers when Bleacher Report's Matt Miller published his October big board. But he rose to No. 43 overall and the No. 7 WR when Miller revisited his big board for the final time on April 13.

NFL.com's Lance Zierlein compared him to New Orleans Saints receiver Tre'Quan Smith:

"Mims is a long-striding outside target with excellent height, weight and speed and an insane catch-radius. He's a touchdown threat anytime he's near the red zone, with the focus and body control to finesse and finish catches above the rim. He struggles to release and separate from physical press corners, and he doesn't consistently compete and outwork opponents for positioning on contested catches."

Mims averaged 15.5 yards per reception at Baylor and ran a 4.38-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine. His big-play potential is obvious; he can be a home run threat whenever he has the ball in his hands.

From the perspective of his fantasy value in 2020, the question is whether he's good enough right away to warrant a spot in your starting lineup. 

His route tree might be somewhat limited as he adjusts to NFL defenses. Tyreek Hill, for example, needed a full year under his belt before his receiving numbers took a big jump.

That uncertainty goes hand in hand with the general fantasy volatility for first-year wideouts.

Those at the position typically start to find their footing in their second and third seasons, per Pro Football Focus' Scott Barrett: 

"Wide receivers are slower out of the gates than running backs but just about hit their career average in fantasy points by their sophomore seasons (96 percent). They hit their peak in Year 3 (118 percent) but come close to that again in Year 5 (117 percent) and Year 6 (113 percent)."

A.J. Brown cracked 1,000 receiving yards as a rookie in 2019, but plenty of fantasy owners were been burned by Mecole Hardman, Marquise Brown, N'Keal Harry and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside.

Mims is worth selecting in standard drafts. Ideally, you can stash him on the bench in order to gauge his production through the first four weeks.

The Jets signed Breshad Perriman, in part to replace the outgoing Robby Anderson, but the team's need for a true No. 1 wideout was clear for all to see.

The Jets ranked 31st in offensive efficiency, per Football Outsiders, despite signing Le'Veon Bell and Jamison Crowder and having Sam Darnold under center. Ryan Tannehill's immediate success after leaving Adam Gase's watch didn't inspire confidence, either.

In general, exercise caution when mapping out when you're prepared to take Mims in your draft.