NCAA Basketball 2020: Stock Watch for Bubble Teams at Start of Championship Week
Crunch time has arrived for teams on the NCAA tournament bubble, and there's still a ton of movement surrounding the projected cut line.
One bubble team (Northern Iowa) has already been eliminated from its conference tournament, while the rest are desperately hoping to get the key win and/or avoid the bad loss that could seal its fate.
Who will rise to the occasion and who will get crushed under the weight of the moment?
As far as a current definition for "bubble team" is concerned, we looked at anyone that entered Monday as being projected by the Bracket Matrix for one of the following: No. 10 seed, No. 11 seed or First Four Out. By winning the Mountain West tournament on Saturday, Utah State—though still projected for a No. 11 seed—removed itself from the list, leaving us with 13 candidates.
From that group, these are the eight that either helped or hurt themselves the most in their four most recent games. But be sure to note the "Stock Up" teams aren't necessarily in better position for a bid than "Stock Down" teams. Rather, the classifications are solely on a team-by-team basis in comparison to where they were projected four games ago.
Stock Up: Richmond Spiders
1 of 8
Resume: NET 37, KenPom 46, SOS 85, NCSOS 85, 3-4 vs. Q1, 3-2 vs. Q2, 18-1 vs. Q3/Q4
Last Four Games: W at Duquesne, W vs. Davidson, W vs. Massachusetts, W at George Washington
Let's get things started with the only bubble team that hasn't lost recently.
It has been more than a month since Richmond last played a Quadrant 1 game, but at least it has largely taken care of business against everyone else. Not only have the Spiders won four in a row, but they are 9-1 since the start of February. The lone loss during that stretch (at Saint Bonaventure) wasn't that bad either—a Quadrant 2 game decided by four points.
Speaking of Quadrant 2, Richmond helped its case immensely by closing out the regular season with a pair of wins against that group. The Spiders entered March with a 1-2 record against Quadrant 2 teams, and their only win over a projected tournament team was a neutral-site game against Wisconsin during the week of Thanksgiving—when the Badgers were playing without key big man Micah Potter.
Richmond was barely top-50 in the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) one week ago, but now it is in the top 40 with a much less troubling 6-6 record against the top two quadrants.
For most of the past month, it felt like the Spiders would likely need to at least reach the Atlantic 10 championship game in order to have a strong at-large case, because a) the neutral-site victory over their projected semifinal opponent (Rhode Island) would provide a bit of a resume boost and b) there would be no shame in losing to Dayton in the title game.
At this point, though, Richmond might be OK so long as it doesn't lose its quarterfinal matchup with either Davidson or La Salle. That said, we would still strongly recommend wins over Davidson and Rhode Island (both in Quadrant 2), just in case there are a few bid thieves or other bubble teams getting hot and raising the bar for a tournament bid.
Stock Down: Texas Tech Red Raiders
2 of 8
Resume: 18-13, NET 22, KenPom 21, SOS 54, NCSOS 182, 3-10 vs. Q1, 4-3 vs. Q2, 11-0 vs. Q3/Q4
Last Four Games: L vs. Kansas, L at Baylor, L vs. Texas, L at Oklahoma
From a team that has won four in a row, we shift gears to a team that has lost four straight.
Aside from the home game against Texas, all of the losses were understandable. In fact, the Red Raiders were quite impressive in defeat this past week, taking Baylor to overtime on the road before narrowly losing a 40-minute battle with the favorite to win the national championship (Kansas).
However, they are rapidly approaching critical mass in the "forgivable losses" department.
KenPom.com and the NET love Texas Tech because it rarely gets blown out. In the days of RPI, the 0-5 record against Baylor, Kansas and Kentucky would have been nothing more than missed opportunities. But now, it doesn't look disappointing at all when factoring in the average scoring margin of 3.4 points in those games.
Still, TTU would be in danger of getting left out if it drops to 7-14 against the top two quadrants with a loss to Texas in the Big 12 quarterfinals on Thursday. There's certainly no "you must win X percent of games against the top two quadrants" rule for at-large consideration, but 33.3 percent seems like a problem.
Louisville had a 9-12 record against the top two quadrants before earning a No. 7 seed last year, but the Cardinals faced a much more difficult schedule and had three wins (two on the road) over teams in the NET's top 11. Florida went 8-13 and sneaked in as a No. 10 seed with 15 losses, but 10 of those came against the NET top 20 in what was also a more tumultuous schedule than what Texas Tech has faced.
Fittingly, the best comparison might be Texas, which last year went 8-15 against the top two quadrants, ranked top 40 in the NET and top 30 on KenPom and received a No. 2 seed in the NIT. Despite strong predictive metrics and seven wins over tournament teams—including a neutral-site victory over No. 1 seed North Carolina—the selection committee decided the Longhorns lost too many times. A similar fate may be in store for the Red Raiders, as they only have four wins over projected tournament teams.
Stock Up: Rutgers Scarlet Knights
3 of 8
Resume: 20-11, NET 32, KenPom 27, SOS 42, NCSOS 102, 4-9 vs. Q1, 5-1 vs. Q2, 10-1 vs. Q3/Q4
Last Four Games: W at Purdue, W vs. Maryland, L at Penn State, L at Wisconsin
It took four full months and then five extra minutes to finally happen, but Rutgers won a meaningful game away from home last weekend.
The Scarlet Knights entered their season finale at Purdue with a 1-10 record in road/neutral games, and the lone victory was a Quadrant 3 game against Nebraska. But when Purdue's Eric Hunter Jr. missed a free throw with two seconds remaining in a tied game, Rutgers made the most of its opportunity for a 71-68 win.
The home win over Maryland on Tuesday probably was enough to punch the Scarlet Knights' ticket.
At that point, they were 8-10 against the top two quadrants with seven wins over projected tournament teams (including likely Southland tournament champion Stephen F. Austin). Within that group, they had wins by double digits over potential top-three seeds Seton Hall and Maryland.
But that putrid road/neutral record does leave Rutgers in some trouble. A loss to Purdue would've meant a 19-12 record and a No. 10 seed in the Big Ten tournament. Given the struggles away from home, it would've been expected to lose the second-round game to the No. 7 seed, thus dropping the Knights to 19-13 overall with a 1-12 record away from home. Maybe it would've still gotten in, but it would've been a sweat-filled few days in Piscataway.
The win at Purdue effectively sealed the deal, though. For the first time since 1991, Rutgers is going to be in the NCAA tournament.
As a bonus bubble note, that result also pretty much eliminated the Boilermakers (16-15) from the at-large conversation unless they're able to make a deep run in the Big Ten tournament. Purdue's metrics are solid, but no team has ever entered its conference tournament with 15 losses and received an at-large bid.
Stock Down: Northern Iowa Panthers
4 of 8
Resume: 25-6, NET 48, KenPom 48, SOS 115, NCSOS 114, 1-1 vs. Q1, 3-2 vs. Q2, 19-3 vs. Q3/Q4
Last Four Games: L vs. Drake, W at Drake, W vs. Evansville, W vs. Southern Illinois
Northern Iowa's case for an at-large bid was already flimsy, at best.
The mid-February loss at Loyola-Chicago put the Panthers in a perilous position, and the subsequent loss to Indiana State just about put them in "auto bid or bust" territory. But at least they finished the regular season well, winning their last three games by a combined margin of 59 points.
If they made it to the MVC championship with wins over Drake and Indiana State before a close loss to Loyola-Chicago or Bradley, maybe that would have been enough. There have been a few teams left out of the NCAA tournament with 28 wins, but finishing 27-6 with a road win over Colorado, a neutral-site win over South Carolina and only two Quadrant 3 losses would have been worth a long discussion in the selection committee's war room.
Alas, the Panthers then lost to Drake, and by a 21-point margin to boot. They plummeted roughly 10 spots in both NET and KenPom.
And Colorado certainly hasn't done Northern Iowa any favors lately, losing each of its last four games—all against teams that might not make the NCAA tournament. That rough finish for the Buffaloes hasn't knocked them too far down the projected seed list, but any drop was bound to have somewhat of a negative impact on UNI, since that was its lone Quadrant 1 victory.
If there is one big thing keeping Northern Iowa in the hunt, though, it's the fact that this is the only mid-major on the bubble.
Utah State, Liberty and East Tennessee State won their respective conference tournaments, and the next-best teams from likely one-bid leagues (Yale, Stephen F. Austin, Vermont, New Mexico State and Akron) are way behind the Panthers and have never been much of a threat to crash the party.
When there are multiple, relatively indistinguishable No. 1 seeds that lose in their conference tournaments, they often all get left out. But finding a spot for a single top-50, six-loss team is much more feasible.
Stock Up: Texas Longhorns
5 of 8
Resume: 19-12, NET 69, KenPom 61, SOS 43, NCSOS 120, 5-8 vs. Q1, 2-4 vs. Q2, 12-0 vs. Q3/Q4
Last Four Games: L vs. Oklahoma State, W at Oklahoma, W at Texas Tech, W vs. West Virginia
The no-show in the regular-season finale against Oklahoma State may have pushed Texas back to the wrong side of the projected cut line, but Longhorns' stock went up a ton in the previous two weeks just to get to that point.
When it was 14-11 with a first-week-of-the-season win at Purdue and little else on its resume, Texas had no NCAA tournament case whatsoever. But three consecutive Quadrant 1 wins over the Mountaineers, Red Raiders and Sooners changed things drastically.
The metrics are still a major problem for the Longhorns, though. Eight of their losses came by double digits, including a 38-point loss at West Virginia and an even more troubling 29-point loss at Iowa State—shortly after the Cyclones lost Tyrese Haliburton for the season, no less.
While we did see St. John's sneak in as the NET's No. 73 team last year, teams ranked outside the top 60 (including the RPI days) get left out far more often than not. An immediate loss to fifth-seeded Texas Tech in the Big 12 tournament would likely doom the Longhorns, seeded fourth, to the NIT.
But, again, we're talking about a team that wasn't even in the top 80 on KenPom three weeks ago. I don't dabble in NIT bracketology, but I'd guess Texas was barely even on the bubble for that tournament prior to its five-game winning streak. It's a small miracle that we're even considering a spot in the NCAA field for Texas—which has a bare-bones roster after a litany of injuries.
This is not something anyone would have guessed in mid-February, but Thursday's Texas vs. Texas Tech winner should be in good shape, while the loser will be eating antacids by the handful until the selection show.
Stock Down: Arizona State Sun Devils
6 of 8
Resume: 20-11, NET 52, KenPom 64, SOS 15, NCSOS 55, 5-9 vs. Q1, 5-2 vs. Q2, 10-0 vs. Q3/Q4
Last Four Games: W vs. Washington State, L vs. Washington, L at USC, L at UCLA
After winning nine out of 10 games and surging into first place in the Pac-12 as well as into great shape for a bid, Arizona State forgot to finish the fight.
A 2-2 record down the stretch likely would have been done the trick, and with two home games against the Washington schools—who had a combined road/neutral record of 1-14 dating back to Christmas—that seemed simple enough.
Instead, the Sun Devils somehow lost to UCLA while shooting 53 percent from three-point range, followed that up with a dud on offense at USC and allowed 90 points to Washington to stretch that losing streak to three games. At least they avoided a complete meltdown by beating Washington State on Saturday, but that doesn't make up for the damage done with those losses.
The good news for ASU is that it still has five Quadrant 1 wins and no terrible losses. Compare that to a bubble team like Cincinnati (two Q1 wins, four Q3 losses) or Northern Iowa (one Q1 win, three Q3 losses) and things look promising for the Sun Devils.
The perhaps better news is in spite of their late struggles, they managed to secure the No. 3 seed for the Pac-12 tournament. As a result, they get a bye into the quarterfinals, where it should draw Colorado in what would be a solid Quadrant 1 opportunity. Win that one Thursday and the Sun Devils would almost certainly get to go dancing for the third consecutive year.
If they instead draw No. 11 seed Washington State and lose that one, though, they'll be in more than a little bit of trouble.
Stock Up: UCLA Bruins
7 of 8
Resume: 19-12, NET 76, KenPom 77, SOS 51, NCSOS 202, 6-7 vs. Q1, 3-3 vs. Q2, 9-2 vs. Q3/Q4
Last Four Games: L at USC, W vs. Arizona, W vs. Arizona State, W at Colorado
UCLA and Texas are kindred spirits at this point. Neither team seemed to have any shot at making the NCAA tournament a few weeks ago until an impressive winning streak (seven games for the Bruins) vaulted them onto the right side of the bubble. However, a loss in the final game of the regular season leaves them right on the projected cut line, praying that their quantity of quality wins will make up for their unimpressive metrics.
About UCLA, though, how good are those wins, really, and how much of a negative impact is that Quadrant 4 loss to Cal St. Fullerton going to have?
The Bruins have six Quadrant 1 victories. The big ones were the season sweeps of Arizona and Colorado, both of which rank in the NET's top 25. But does anyone truly believe those are top-25 teams? Both the Wildcats and Buffaloes were already outside the AP Top 25 prior to each suffering one of their worst losses of the season last Saturday. Neither one finished in the top four of the Pac-12 standings. NET and KenPom are telling us one thing, but the eye test suggests something else.
But let's assume the selection committee will view those as nice wins over teams in the No. 7 seed range. Instead of getting bogged down in an argument over the legitimacy of Arizona and Colorado, let's just pretend those four wins came against Illinois and LSU. Beyond that, UCLA's next-best win was either the home game against Arizona State or the road game against Washington, neither of which is that compelling.
So, can a team with four wins over projected No. 7 seeds, four losses to teams nowhere near the at-large conversation—North Carolina (without Cole Anthony), Washington State, Hofstra and Cal St. Fullerton—and 12 total losses get in? Maybe. Adding a neutral-site victory over Stanford in the Pac-12 quarterfinals (provided the Cardinal win their first game) would be a big help.
Just like Texas, though, it's kind of remarkable we're even having this conversation about UCLA. This team was 12-11 one month ago and had barely shown any signs of life. Whether the second-seeded Bruins get in or not, it has been a wild finish.
Stock Down: Xavier Musketeers
8 of 8
Resume: 19-12, NET 44, KenPom 43, SOS 11, NCSOS 65, 3-11 vs. Q1, 7-1 vs. Q2, 9-0 vs. Q3/Q4
Last Four Games: L vs. Butler, L at Providence, W at Georgetown, W vs. DePaul
Xavier has a smoke-and-mirrors resume. Everything looks fine at first glance, but once you dig in, you discover there's not much there. And season-ending losses to Providence and Butler forced us to do some digging.
The Musketeers are 3-11 vs. Quadrant 1, and two of those wins—by three at Georgetown, by three at St. John's—make one wonder if we need to refine what we're considering a top-tier victory. The 12-point win at Seton Hall was stupendous. No doubting that. But what does Xavier have beyond that one great win?
According to both NET and KenPom, Xavier is 1-10 against top-35 teams.
What the Musketeers are banking on is that this year's selection committee will appreciate their near-flawless record against everyone else. They only have one remotely bad loss, and a two-point game at Wake Forest is hardly a disastrous outcome.
Among teams outside the NET top 20, Xavier and Stephen F. Austin are the only ones with either zero or one losses against the bottom three quadrants—and the Lumberjacks' breakdown of records by quadrants is 0-0 versus Q2, 3-0 versus Q3 and 21-1 versus Q4. Even if you can't often beat top-notch opponents, there's something to be said for dodging the missteps that plague just about every other team on the bubble.
The Musketeers will need to continue that avoidance, though, as they open the Big East tournament as the No. 7 seed against DePaul. With the Blue Demons currently ranked No. 102 in the NET, that is a Quadrant 3 game. Odds are DePaul would jump into the top 100 and turn it into a Q2 result if it wins, but it would be a brutal loss either way—one that would very likely knock the X-Men out of the field.
The more likely outcome is that Xavier wins the first game before losing to Villanova, dropping to 1-11 against the top 35. That sounds like being among the last four in to me, but it might need to beat the Wildcats in order to get into the dance.
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