Predicting the Biggest Losers of Men's 2020 CBB Conference Tournaments
The most exciting time of the college basketball season has arrived. Conference tournaments will overwhelm our screens for a week-and-a-half, and the results will have a huge impact on the March Madness field.
That makes it a particularly stressful time for bubble teams.
Some of those programs are trending the wrong direction at the worst possible moment. Others are fighting an uphill battle that'll only become more complicated as fellow at-large contenders pad their tournament resume—or bid-stealers snatch an automatic bid.
Since the regular season is still ending for several conferences, some of the following projections include predicted results over the coming week as well as the league tournament.
Cincinnati Bearcats
1 of 8
Cincinnati steadied itself with recent victories over Wichita State and USF, avoiding what would've been a fourth loss in an overtime-filled seven-game stretch. The Bearcats aren't in the clear, though.
Every bubble team has a flawed resume—they're on the bubble for that reason, after all—but Cincinnati's is loaded with ugly losses. The Bearcats are 7-4 against Quadrant III teams, which diminishes the shine on a 7-0 mark opposite Q-II foes.
Short of an appearance in the AAC tournament title game, the Bearcats are in position to watch a last-second surge eliminate their March Madness spot.
Rhode Island Rams
2 of 8
Richmond and Rhode Island are basically fighting for an at-large spot. Dayton is the runaway favorite in the Atlantic 10, but the Spiders and Rams will likely be the Nos. 2 and 3 seeds (in some order).
The semifinals of the A-10 tournament thus might be a winner-gets-a-bid matchup.
If you believe Rhode Island would topple Richmond in that contest, flip the Spiders into this position. But we're predicting Richmond will outlast the Rams in a showdown where neither team can afford a loss.
Rhode Island's lone Quadrant I victory wouldn't be enticing when compared to its bubble-dwelling competition.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
3 of 8
Texas Tech is moving the wrong direction.
Losers of three straight games, the Red Raiders are 18-12 and close the regular season at home against Kansas on Saturday. An upset would seal their March Madness bid, and a loss wouldn't hurt all that much.
However, this losing streak has dropped Tech enough that a second-round loss in the Big 12 tournament would mean sweating out Selection Sunday.
The Red Raiders might stay within the field, but their tournament path may require an additional game in the First Four. While that's preferable to an NIT berth, it still isn't ideal for a program that envisioned a top-seven seed a few weeks ago.
North Carolina State Wolfpack
4 of 8
The bad and disappointing losses continue to pile up for North Carolina State, which is 9-10 in ACC play with four combined letdowns against Georgia Tech, North Carolina and Boston College.
The next few potential wins won't help much, either.
The Wolfpack close the regular season against last-place Wake Forest and likely are looking at Boston College, Virginia Tech or Miami in the second round of the ACC tourney. Their next chance at a bubble-boosting victory is the third round.
Depending on the number of bid-stealers, NC State might be the first team out.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
5 of 8
Rutgers is so close to snapping its 29-year NCAA tournament drought, yet it's just far enough away to still be nervous.
The Scarlet Knights got off to a 16-5 start, but they've lost six of their last nine games. They're heading into the regular-season finale at Purdue with a miserable 1-10 record away from the RAC.
Yes, Rutgers has four Quadrant I and four Quadrant II wins. While the recent victory over Maryland boosted the resume a bit, history suggests the Scarlet Knights need a second road or neutral-site win.
And if it doesn't happen at Purdue or in the Big Ten tournament—likely against Michigan, which swept Rutgers in the regular season—this once-dream season will end in a nightmare.
Purdue Boilermakers
6 of 8
Purdue, meanwhile, has a volume problem. The Boilers have a combined nine Quadrant I and II wins, but they've lost 14 games.
At a certain point, the number of losses can no longer atone for quality wins. The most losses for an at-large team in tournament history is 15, and Purdue is destined for that number unless you believe a Big Ten tourney title is on the horizon.
Considering the Boilers are only 5-10 outside of West Lafayette, you shouldn't anticipate that kind of run.
Even if Purdue defends home court against Rutgers in the regular-season finale, the Boilers will probably fall frustratingly short of March Madness barring a string of victories in the Big Ten tourney.
UCLA Bruins
7 of 8
Heading into the Pac-12 tournament, UCLA is a dangerous team. Any program that rattles off 9-1 stretch following a 10-10 start should be considered as much.
The Bruins have clawed back into the at-large picture with season sweeps of Arizona and Colorado. However, their margin for error remains extremely thin.
If the Bruins survive the opening game of the Pac-12 tourney as expected, they'll likely face one of Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Stanford or USC in the second round. A loss there could burst their bubble.
UCLA has plenty of quality wins, but a sub-70 NET rating will be a major challenge to overcome if the Bruins lose early.
Utah State Aggies
8 of 8
New Mexico had dropped 10 of its last 12 games. That's what stood between Utah State and a relatively comfortable spot in the bubble conversation.
Instead, the Aggies wound up on the wrong side of a crushing 66-64 loss in their regular-season finale, putting their potential at-large bid in a precarious place.
If conference tournaments produce a few unanticipated champions, Utah State's hopes of swiping an at-large bid may go up in smoke.
In all likelihood, the Aggies need to win the Mountain West tourney to secure their spot in March Madness. However, their two losses to San Diego State don't inspire much hope.
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