Predicting Each MLB Team's Most Valuable Player in 2020
With spring training underway and Opening Day fast approaching, now is the perfect time for some predictions for the 2020 MLB season.
Our goal this time around was to pinpoint each team's WAR leader during the upcoming campaign.
While teams like the Los Angeles Angels (Mike Trout) and Milwaukee Brewers (Christian Yelich) are no-brainers, other clubs were considerably trickier to nail down.
There will always be unexpected breakouts. Think Ketel Marte with the Arizona Diamondbacks last season. But what follows is our best guess for each team in 2020.
Let's dive right in.
AL East
1 of 6
Baltimore Orioles: RF Trey Mancini
Mancini raised his OPS+ from 95 to 135 last season while tallying 38 doubles and 35 home runs despite limited lineup protection. That was good for 3.3 WAR, which was third on the team behind John Means (4.5) and Jonathan Villar (4.0).
With Villar gone and Means more likely to regress based on peripheral numbers, Mancini is the pick to lead the team. He raised his hard-hit rate (33.6 to 37.3 percent) and fly-ball rate (26.5 to 31.9 percent) in 2019, which is a recipe for success when it comes to power production.
Boston Red Sox: 3B Rafael Devers
Xander Bogaerts would be the obvious pick here if not for brutal defensive metrics at shortstop (minus-21 DRS) that undercut his overall value. He's been a below-average defender throughout his career, so there's no reason to believe that will change in 2020.
Instead, we'll go with Devers, who found another gear offensively last season when he hit .311/.361/.555 with 54 doubles, 32 home runs and 115 RBI. He's still just 23 years old and has elite raw power, so it's easy to envision a few more of those doubles clearing the fence this season. He also made strides defensively, improving his metrics from 2018 (minus-13 DRS, minus-5.2 UZR/150) to 2019 (minus-6 DRS, 2.4 UZR/150).
New York Yankees: SP Gerrit Cole
Enough injury question marks surround Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez that it's tough to bank on any of those guys leading the Yankees in WAR during the upcoming season.
On the other hand, Cole has been extremely durable over the past three seasons, averaging 33 starts and 205 innings. His AL CY Young runner-up season last year was worth 6.9 WAR, and after leading the AL in ERA (2.50), FIP (2.64) and strikeouts (326), he's a good bet for another stellar year as he looks to make good on his nine-year, $324 million contract.
Tampa Bay Rays: SS Willy Adames
Adames raised his batting line from .237/.299/.382 during the first half of last season to .278/.340/.467 after the All-Star break on his way to a 25-double, 20-homer season.
The 24-year-old also turned in a stellar season with the glove (13 DRS, 2.5 UZR/150), quietly emerging as one of the best two-way shortstops in baseball. The former centerpiece of the David Price blockbuster is just scratching the surface of his potential and could break out even further in 2020.
Toronto Blue Jays: 3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
It speaks volumes to the level of expectations surrounding Guerrero that he turned in a 2.1 WAR season as a 20-year-old and it qualified as a mild disappointment.
He raised his batting average (.249 to .293) and OPS (.741 to .801) after the All-Star break, and he enjoyed a huge month of August in which he hit .341/.406/.571 with 12 extra-base hits. It would not be surprising in the least to see him double his WAR total in his sophomore campaign.
AL Central
2 of 6
Chicago White Sox: SP Lucas Giolito
While the future is incredibly bright for guys like Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert, they still have work to do establishing themselves at the MLB level. To that point, Jimenez was worth just 1.4 WAR during his 31-homer rookie season.
Meanwhile, Giolito emerged as a bona fide ace during a 5.6 WAR season, finishing sixth in AL Cy Young voting. His 3.41 ERA was backed by a 3.43 FIP, and he made tremendous strides in both his walk rate (4.7 to 2.9 walks per nine innings) and strikeout rate (6.5 to 11.6 strikeouts per nine innings) while tossing three complete games and two shutouts. He's the real deal.
Cleveland Indians: 3B Jose Ramirez
After a 7.9 WAR season in 2018 that tied him for the team lead with Francisco Lindor, Ramirez struggled through an ugly first half last year, hitting just .218/.308/.344 with seven home runs in 364 plate appearances.
He was back to producing at an elite level in the second half, batting .327/.365/.739 with 18 doubles and 16 home runs in 178 plate appearances before a fractured hand cost him all but three games after Aug. 24. The 27-year-old has a track record of success and the clean bill of health to be a superstar once again in 2020.
Detroit Tigers: SP Spencer Turnbull
Despite going an unsightly 3-17 last year, Turnbull actually had a better FIP (3.99) than headline-grabbing teammate Matthew Boyd (4.32).
While both pitchers ran out of steam down the stretch, it's not out of the question to think that Turnbull could wind up having the better all-around season in 2020. He's never going to post the same elite strikeout numbers as Boyd, but an improved groundball rate (46.0 to 48.3 percent) and hard-contact rate (46.0 to 41.4 percent) will benefit him greatly going forward.
Kansas City Royals: CF Whit Merrifield
Since the start of the 2017 season, Merrifield has been worth 13.5 WAR, good for 22nd among all position players during that span. He ranks second in the majors in hits (567) and fourth in steals (99) over the three-year stretch.
Now he's set to make the full-time move to center field, where he has logged three DRS in 373 innings the past two seasons. With strong defensive metrics over a full season at a premium position, along with more of the same offensively, he should be able to hold of Adalberto Mondesi for the WAR lead.
Minnesota Twins: 3B Josh Donaldson
After an injury-plagued 2018 season, Donaldson returned to elite form on a one-year deal with the Atlanta Braves, logging a 127 OPS+ with 33 doubles and 37 home runs in a 6.1 WAR season.
Despite the fact that he is entering his age-34 season, the Twins gave him a four-year, $92 million deal in free agency, and he's been worth at least 5.0 WAR in six of the past seven seasons. Aside from his impressive power numbers and on-base skills, he's also still a standout defender at third base.
AL West
3 of 6
Houston Astros: 3B Alex Bregman
Offensively, Bregman took his game from great to elite last year, raising his OPS+ from 152 to 162 while hitting .296/.423/.592 with a career-high 41 home runs and 112 RBI. He also had more walks than strikeouts for the second straight year, leading the AL with 119 free passes en route to an 8.4 WAR season.
That said, the strides he made defensively make him a safe bet to be the team's WAR leader once again. He went from grading out as a below-average defender in 2018 (minus-6 DRS, minus-5.1 UZR/150) to being a Gold Glove finalist in 2019 (7 DRS, 5.3 UZR/150).
Los Angeles Angels: CF Mike Trout
It will be interesting to see what sort of WAR total a healthy Shohei Ohtani can put up over a full season of pitching and hitting. He was worth 2.7 WAR as a hitter and 1.2 WAR as a pitcher despite tallying just 367 plate appearances and 51.2 innings during his rookie season.
It's silly to bet on anyone other than Trout leading the team in WAR next season, though. He slugged a career-high 45 home runs in 2019 while leading the AL in on-base percentage for the fourth year in a row and OPS+ for the fifth straight season. That amounted to an 8.3 WAR performance, and he's been worth 72.0 WAR in his eight full MLB campaigns.
Oakland Athletics: 3B Matt Chapman
On defense alone, Chapman is an elite player, having tallied 66 DRS in his three MLB seasons while winning back-to-back Gold Glove Awards.
The 26-year-old raised his walk rate (9.4 to 10.9 percent) and trimmed his strikeout rate (23.7 to 21.9 percent) while slugging 36 home runs in a 6.7 WAR season last year, and that was actually a step back from the 8.2 WAR he posted in 2018. He's a legitimate superstar and the face of the Oakland organization.
Seattle Mariners: SP Marco Gonzales
After quietly turning in a breakout season in 2018, Gonzales was even better last year, tossing a career-high 203 innings while posting a 3.99 ERA (109 ERA+) and 3.2 WAR.
The 28-year-old southpaw is not flashy with a middling strikeout rate (6.5 K/9) and a fastball that averaged just 89.3 mph on the radar gun. However, he has proved himself an above-average MLB starter capable of eating up innings, and he's as good a bet as anyone to lead this young M's roster in WAR.
Texas Rangers: RF Joey Gallo
Gallo, 26, looked like a different hitter last season when he was able to take the field, hitting .253/.389/.598 with 22 home runs in just 70 games.
That came after he hit just .208/.322/.516 during his first two full seasons in the majors. If he can maintain the gains he made in his walk rate (12.8 to 17.5 BB/9) while continuing to post elite power numbers, a 5.0 WAR season is well within reach.
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NL East
4 of 6
Atlanta Braves: RF Ronald Acuna Jr.
One of the most exciting young players in baseball, Acuna made a serious run at a 40-40 season last year, slugging 41 home runs while swiping an NL-leading 37 bases.
Still just 22 years old, he's already eyeing bigger and better things in 2020 with his sights reportedly set on a 50-50 season. He has the hit tool (.280 BA), the power, the speed, the defense (9 DRS, 2.9 UZR/150) and the arm (10 OF assists) to be considered a true five-tool talent. He's going to lead the Braves in WAR for years to come.
Miami Marlins: 3B/OF Brian Anderson
While he was never an elite-level prospect during his time in the minors, Anderson has emerged as one of the few long-term building blocks on the Marlins roster.
The 26-year-old built off a strong rookie season by posting a 114 OPS+ with 33 doubles and 20 home runs, and he added to his value with his defensive versatility. He graded out as an above-average defender at third base (8 DRS, 11.2 UZR/150) and in right field (5 DRS, 7.3 UZR/150), and he's quietly been worth 7.7 WAR during his first two full seasons.
New York Mets: SP Jacob deGrom
A strong case can be made that deGrom is the best pitcher in baseball after he took home a second consecutive NL Cy Young Award last season with a 2.43 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 255 strikeouts in 204 innings.
He's been worth 32.7 WAR during his six MLB seasons, including 16.9 WAR in 2018 and 2019 combined, and there's no reason to bet against him in 2020. The 31-year-old has averaged 32 starts and 207 innings over the past three seasons, so durability is not an issue.
Philadelphia Phillies: C J.T. Realmuto
Realmuto, 28, will be playing for his next contract in 2020. He is expected to seek a record deal for a catcher, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network.
His 4.4 WAR last season was a personal best. He hit .275/.328/.493 while setting career highs in doubles (36), home runs (25), RBI (83) and runs scored (92), and he also threw out an impressive 47 percent of base-stealers en route to his first career Gold Glove Award. He's the best catcher in baseball and a legitimate superstar on a team filled with household names.
Washington Nationals: LF Juan Soto
Last season, Stephen Strasburg (6.5), Anthony Rendon (6.3), Max Scherzer (5.8) and Patrick Corbin (5.4) each topped 5.0 WAR for the eventual World Series champions.
Soto came up just short at 4.7, hitting .282/.401/.548 with 32 doubles, 34 home runs and 110 RBI in his age-20 season. His numbers trended up after the All-Star break, so he's still working toward his ultimate ceiling, which is a scary proposition for the rest of the league.
NL Central
5 of 6
Chicago Cubs: 3B Kris Bryant
In what was widely viewed as a disappointing 2019, Bryant still hit .282/.382/.521 for a 131 OPS+ with 35 doubles and 31 home runs in a 3.6 WAR season.
The 28-year-old is capable of far more, and perhaps a move to the leadoff spot in the Cubs lineup will prove the best way to utilize his on-base skills. He's a better defensive third baseman than his 2019 defensive metrics indicate (minus-7 DRS, minus-1.5 UZR/150) and is more than capable of returning to the form that saw him rack up 19.6 WAR in his first three MLB seasons.
Cincinnati Reds: SP Luis Castillo
After flashing plenty of potential during his first two seasons in the majors, Castillo finally broke out last year with a 3.40 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 226 strikeouts to earn his first All-Star nod.
Working a career-high 190.2 innings seemed to take its toll, and he had a 5.55 ERA over his final eight starts. Another offseason of building up his arm strength should improve his chances of putting together a full season of top-tier production. The Reds' trio of Castillo, Trevor Bauer and Sonny Gray is as good as any in baseball.
Milwaukee Brewers: RF Christian Yelich
Despite suffering a season-ending fractured kneecap on Sept. 10, Yelich still won his second straight NL batting title (.329 BA) while slugging a career-high 44 home runs to finish second in NL MVP voting.
Rising star Keston Hiura could give him a run for his money, but it's hard to bet against one of the game's truly elite hitters. In his two seasons with the Brewers, Yelich has hit .327/.415/.631 and tallied 14.7 WAR, while Hiura was worth 2.1 WAR in 84 games as a rookie.
Pittsburgh Pirates: SP Mitch Keller
With Starling Marte gone and Jameson Taillon out for the season while he recovers from Tommy John surgery, there's no obvious answer for the Pirates.
Bryan Reynolds (3.9 WAR) and Kevin Newman (3.1 WAR) both had terrific rookie seasons, but we're going to go outside the box a bit and choose Keller as the 2020 WAR leader. Below the surface of his ugly 7.13 ERA was a 3.19 FIP and an excellent 65-to-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 48 innings. The 23-year-old has nothing left to prove in the minors.
St. Louis Cardinals: SP Jack Flaherty
If Flaherty is even a fraction of the pitcher he was during the second half of last season, he'll be among the NL Cy Young front-runners.
The 24-year-old posted a ridiculous 0.91 ERA and 0.72 WHIP with a .142 opponents' batting average and 124 strikeouts in 99.1 innings over 15 starts after the All-Star break. That was enough to vault him to a fourth-place finish in Cy Young balloting despite a mediocre first half, and it's clear he's turned a corner in his development.
NL West
6 of 6
Arizona Diamondbacks: 2B Ketel Marte
A significant spike in hard-contact rate (36.0 to 42.1 percent) makes it easy to buy into the breakout season Marte posted for the D-backs in 2019. The 26-year-old hit .329/.389/.592 with 36 doubles and 32 home runs in a 6.9 WAR campaign.
He'll be playing second base full-time after Starling Marte was added in an offseason trade, and he actually graded out better in center field last year. He's also due for at least some regression from a .342 BABIP and a 19.0 HR/FB rate. So while a repeat of that 6.9 WAR total might not be forthcoming, another 5.0-plus WAR season is definitely doable.
Colorado Rockies: 3B Nolan Arenado
Pronounced home/road splits will always be a cloud hanging over Arenado, but he's an elite-level player regardless of where he calls home. He hit .351 with a 1.057 OPS and 21 home runs at home last year compared to a .277 average, .866 OPS and 20 home runs on the road, so he was no slouch away from Coors Field.
Over the past five seasons, he's posted a 129 OPS+ while averaging 40 home runs and 124 RBI, and he's done so while ranking as one of the game's best defensive players. He's won a Gold Glove in each of his seven seasons, racking up 38.7 WAR during that span.
Los Angeles Dodgers: RF Mookie Betts
Cody Bellinger was worth 9.0 WAR last season on his way to NL MVP honors, but his production fell off dramatically after the All-Star break. He still posted a .917 OPS with 17 home runs in the second half, but that came after he had a 1.124 OPS and 30 homers in the first.
While Bellinger's massive season came on the heels of back-to-back 4.2 WAR campaigns, Betts has been worth at least 5.9 WAR in each of his five full seasons in the majors, including a 6.8 WAR showing last year. With his combination of power, speed and defense, he's always a safe bet to be among the leaders, and a contract year serves as further motivation.
San Diego Padres: SS Fernando Tatis Jr.
Despite playing in just 84 games during an injury-plagued rookie campaign, Tatis was still worth 4.2 WAR for the Padres.
The 21-year-old is the complete package, and after he hit .317/.379/.590 with 41 extra-base hits and 16 steals, expectations are extremely high for 2020. He will have to stay on the field if he is going to hold off Manny Machado for the team's WAR lead, but he has the tools to be one of baseball's most valuable players.
San Francisco Giants: SP Johnny Cueto
Cueto has pitched just 69 innings the past two years while recovering from Tommy John surgery, including four starts last September. He turned in back-to-back starts of five shutout innings in his return from that long layoff, and with a full offseason of rest and recovery, he should be at 100 percent heading into 2020.
The 34-year-old had a 2.79 ERA and 198 strikeouts in 219.2 innings to finish sixth in NL Cy Young voting as recently as 2016, and while he may not be able to regain that level of success, there's still something left in the tank. Someone has to lead the Giants in WAR, right?
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted.
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