If Tom Brady Moves On, What's Next for the Patriots?

Next month, the world's most decorated NFL player is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent for the first time in his career.

While ESPN's Adam Schefter threw water on the notion that Tom Brady's cryptic Thursday night Twitter picture was a hint that his 20-year relationship with the New England Patriots could be over, it continues to look as though the 42-year-old will seriously consider alternatives to New England this offseason.

"It would be extremely surprising if Brady were to agree to any new pact with the Patriots prior to the start of free agency in March," wrote Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports in January.

"I'm told if he does go back to the Patriots, he doesn't want to do the same hometown discount that he's done in the past," said Jay Glazer of Fox Sports earlier last month. "So then you also look at other options out there."

So while Patriots owner Robert Kraft has shown a willingness to re-sign Brady, the Pats also have to seriously consider their potential direction and strategy in the event that they divorce from their six-time Super Bowl champion quarterback.

Here's a look at potential avenues for the Patriots under those circumstances.

1. Tank for Trevor

As in Trevor Lawrence, the standout Clemson quarterback who for more than a year has been viewed as a heavy favorite to go first overall in the 2021 NFL draft.

Lawrence has led the Tigers to back-to-back national championship games to kick off his college career, and there's little reason to expect the former 5-star recruit to lose any luster in 2020. He's thrown 66 touchdown passes to just 12 interceptions in two years in the ACC, and he's already drawn comparisons to several superstar quarterbacks.

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You know Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels would love to get their hands on a prospect like Lawrence, and it's possible they'd even be willing to tank the 2020 season in order to gain the draft capital required to land him next April.

That would mean abstaining from the free-agent market in search of Brady's replacement and instead handing the reins to 2019 fourth-round pick Jarrett Stidham. If Stidham, who flashed a bit last preseason, turns out to be a pleasant surprise, the Pats can shift gears and address other positions in the 2021 draft. But if he fails to emerge as a franchise quarterback, they might have a shot at Lawrence.

Of course, Belichick is such a good coach that it might be hard to throw in the towel with as much talent as the Pats have on defense. To truly tank, they'd probably have to wave goodbye to impending free-agent defenders Devin McCourty, Jamie Collins Sr. and Kyle Van Noy.

They could also consider parting ways with star cornerback Stephon Gilmore or steady linebacker Dont'a Hightower, both of whom are quite expensive. But both are still on the right side of 30 and could remain significant assets come 2021.

Under this approach, New England would also be smart to cut ties with top receiver Julian Edelman, who will be 35 years old come 2021.

2. Find an immediate replacement

On the other hand, Belichick might figure that with his coaching and substantial defensive talent, the Patriots could get back to the Super Bowl next year by making changes on the fly.

The Pats are projected by Spotrac to enter the offseason with more than $40 million in salary-cap space, which would enable them to re-sign McCourty, Collins and Van Noy and also pursue a veteran quarterback on the free-agent market.

Impending free agents Philip Rivers, Teddy Bridgewater and Marcus Mariota are widely expected to be circling the quarterback carousel this offseason.

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Rivers is coming off a better statistical season than Brady and is four years younger. Bridgewater, who was a Pro Bowler in 2015, won all five of his starts in place of an injured Drew Brees in 2019, and he's only 27 years old. Mariota failed to become a franchise quarterback in Tennessee, but Belichick and McDaniels might imagine they can get something more out of the talented 26-year-old.

There's also 2015 MVP Cam Newton, who could be cut loose by the potentially rebuilding Carolina Panthers. There's 2015 No. 1 overall pick Jameis Winston, who continues to be an interception machine but also led the NFC with 33 touchdown passes in 2019. And there's 2012 top-10 pick Ryan Tannehill, who was the league's highest-rated passer last year in Tennessee.

Those three are less likely to become available (Newton is under contract and Winston and Tannehill are prime franchise-tag candidates), but you also have to consider the possibility that Brady replaces any of them in Carolina, Tampa or Tennessee.

Maybe the Patriots would be spinning their wheels in any of these scenarios, but the reality is their golden boy was a liability down the stretch in 2019. Only four qualified quarterbacks had lower yards-per-attempt averages last season than Brady, who completed just 56.9 percent of his passes and was the NFL's second-lowest-rated qualified passer in the second half of the campaign.

Upgrading might not be so hard.

3. Something in between

A less extreme solution involves bringing in one of the above veteran quarterbacks on a short-term deal, keeping as much talent as possible around him and drafting a potential long-term option under center.

Essentially, imagine the 2020 Patriots with the same roster, add an extra weapon or two on offense—the shortage there was a big part of their undoing in 2019—and then insert someone like Rivers, Bridgewater or Mariota on a prove-it deal. Take Riverwaterota and Stidham into the spring and then use the draft to add one more quarterback to the fray, ideally on Day 2 if not in Round 1.

It's doubtful any of this draft's top three quarterbacks—Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert—drop to New England in the No. 23 spot, but the Pats could at least put themselves in the Herbert mix with a potential trade up.

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Alternatively, and more realistically, they should have a shot at rising Utah State product Jordan Love in Round 1. In later rounds, they might be intrigued by quarterback prospects such as Steven Montez from Colorado, Georgia's Jake Fromm or Oklahoma product Jalen Hurts.

Let a veteran, a hotshot rookie and a you-never-know sophomore compete hard for the job, and they increase the odds of working with a highly effective signal-caller in 2020.

Even if they would inevitably be criticized for either wasting money or draft capital on whichever quarterback doesn't emerge as the top guy, they'd give themselves an extra roll of the dice. 

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012. Follow him on Twitter. Or don't. It's entirely your choice.