Super Bowl Odds 2020: Opening Las Vegas Betting Lines for Chiefs vs. 49ers

The dream is dead. Ryan Tannehill will not play for the Lombardi Trophy in Miami. Instead, we get a seriously tight matchup between two diametrically opposed football teams. Ultimately, Kansas City's upsurging defense and long game should give them the edge against a San Francisco team that is  inconsistent when forced out of their run-heavy scheme.

The San Francisco 49ers lost just three games in 2019. The Kansas City Chiefs lost three. Each team ranked in the top five teams for points scored, but the Chiefs did so because of a top-five pass attack while the 49ers did it on the back of a league-leading 23 rushing touchdowns.

As it stands, Caesars lists Kansas City as a one-point favorite in a game with an over/under of 53.5. Vegas doesn't have a firm pick, and rightly so.

While San Francisco's defense has been a juggernaut for most of the year, the Chiefs have come on in recent weeks and have a disruptive defensive scheme, particularly problematic for the game-managing Jimmy Garoppolo. This makes the defensive comparison less favorable toward the 49ers than previously expected.

San Francisco has allowed just 281.8 yards per game in 2019, second to only the New England Patriots. Centered around an absurd group of defensive linemen, the 49ers have stifled and pummeled offenses all year—allowing their offense to gash opponents and drain down the clock with a multi-pronged ground game.

The top six pass-rushers for the 49ers (Arik Armstead, Nick Bosa, DeForest Buckner, Dee Ford, Solomon Thomas and Fred Warner) have combined for 71 hits on opposing quarterbacks this season. Four have had five-plus sacks: Armstead (10.0), Bosa (9.0), Buckner (7.5) and Ford (6.5). A balanced linebacker corps and a secondary helmed by the mojo of Richard Sherman are good, but the strength of San Francisco's pass rush makes the defense great.

Speaking of mojo, Kansas City's defense is calling upon serious stores of it right now. The team has begun fully reaping the benefits of its three 2019 additions on that side of the ball: Steve Spagnuolo, Tyrann "Honey Badger" Mathieu and Frank Clark. The Honey Badger is the perfect, versatile key to an adaptable defense coordinated by Spagnuolo and suddenly sturdy on the front line thanks to Clark.

Kyle Shanahan's offense is legit. Already potent, Raheem Mostert has somehow amped it up to a different level. With long strides and a steady pace, he seems to travel further, faster than his body appears to be moving. At a glance in the open field, he's unremarkable, but defenders are quickly outpaced and those that do hit him appear to suffer the worst of those collisions.

Seven teams later, Mostert is finding holes and casually flying through them. Tevin Coleman's injury is unideal, but Kansas City is probably not thrilled that it means more carries for Mostert and the dangerous Matt Breida.

That running game allowed Jimmy Garoppolo to throw just eight passes against the Green Bay Packers, a record for the NFL's conference championships. Per the San Francisco Chronicle's Eric Branch, Shanahan's reasoning for the run-heavy game plan was succinct: "Because it was working."

I'll be succinct, too. The Chiefs' defense and passing attack will force Garoppolo to throw and, once the game comes down to quarterback play, Mahomes will win.

Mathieu leads the 49ers in solo tackles (63), interceptions (four) and is holding quarterbacks to the league's lowest passer rating (61.7) when targeting the slot (per PFF). The two gnarly linemen, Chris Jones and Frank Clark, have combined for 34 quarterback hits and 17 sacks.

San Francisco has great, athletic pass-catchers, like George Kittle and Deebo Samuel, who find extra yardage after the catch—but Mathieu and safety Daniel Sorensen clean up out there.

Most importantly, Mahomes is too talented and has too many weapons to let San Francisco play safe. A bevy of sweeps and gadget plays complement Travis Kelce in the short-to-intermediate passing game while game-breaking speedsters stretch defenses vertically. The pass rush is great, but Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid have the playmakers to expose holes.

When the Titans doubled Kelce or brought pressure, Mahomes found Tyreek Hill—who put up five catches for 67 yards and two touchdowns. When they schemed to take away Hill and Kelce, the quarterback turned to Sammy Watkins—who tallied seven catches for 114 yards and a touchdown.

When the Titans took everything away downfield, Mahomes burst out a 27-yard touchdown scramble.

The 49ers have been great, but Sherman's one weakness is man coverage against speed and Kansas City is best at blowing the roof off of secondaries. Garoppolo will have to throw if the 49ers are going to keep up and hit Vegas' expected total.

Mahomes is all hero. Mathieu is all juice. Unless Garoppolo flips a switch, the Chiefs are winning by more than one.