NFL and Value City: Early Odds to Win the Super Bowl

The big free agents have flown. The draft is done. Its June, and NFL coaches have a good idea about the team they will field.

Sure, teams will have key injuries, drug suspensions, beaten spouses, strip-bar shootouts, and the occasional star running back caught driving drunk or running off to smoke the rope with Ziggy Marley.

But what ya see now is generally what ya get in September. The NFL Super Bowl odds are set. Not set in stone, no they fluctuate as much as Cedric Benson's blood alcohol level driving under the Friday night lights of his old Texas town. But we have a good idea of the favorites, the long shots, the maybes, and the no shots.

Unless an angry actress's ex-gal pal of Tom Brady's gives him the Roy Hobbs pistol packing Mama treatment or Peyton Manning is busted with a bloody bowie knife in his colt blue boot at some seedy Vegas strip club, the Indianapolis Colts and the New England Patriots are the respective top picks to win the big one at a little under 4-1 for the Pats and a about 7 1/2-1 for the Colts.

The San Diego Chargers sneak in nearly nose-to-nose with the Colts at 7 to 1. Then the popular Cowboys at 8 to 1.

But we want value in this topsy-turvy, NFL world filled with migrating free agents and teams desperate to maintain a degree of continuity and depth in key areas such as the offensive and defensive lines. Routinely, those areas are ravaged in free agency.

So we don't want to bet the chalk. Bye Bye Patriots; you peaked. The offensive line's problems with pressure due to age and a lack of depth was revealed. Richard Seymour looks shot. Asante Samuel is gone. The linebackers and strong safety, Rodney Harrison, are aging. So toss out the Pats.

The Dallas Cowboys have yet to win with Tony Romo. The offensive line looked out of shape and the coach looks out coached in big games. Sorry, Jerry Jones. No riding dem Cowboys for me..

The Colts were decimated by injuries last year. The defense is still suspect. The star receiver might be on trial. The offensive  line might be a trial for Manning Their time might have passed. Not at this price.

The public bets these popular teams down so it's not a bargain grabbing them.

As for the Chargers, that price is too short for a team that seems to always find a way to fall short. Phillip Rivers hasn't sold me, nor has Norv Turner proven to be a big game coach ever.

That's the problem with betting on the AFC longshots. The road to the Super Bowl leads through New England or Indianapolis. Maybe both. No way does Norv charge his Chargers through those cities.

Nor do the ultra conservative ball control hogs from Jacksonville, the Jaguars, seem to have not a shot to beat two quality teams in a row. Coach Jack Del Rio plays them close to the vest and at 14-1 I'll pass on the conservative ball control crusader.

The Pittsburgh Steelers, not far from a Super Bowl victory, are a bit tempting at 25-1.

Value lies in the wide open NFC race. It's a conference anyone can win and throwing out the Dallas Cowboys and Wade "Son of Bum" Phillips it really opens the race. 

How 'bout the Carolina Panthers? They are a sleeper at 50 to 1. Jake Delhomme doesn't actually inspire Super Bowl dreams. But John Fox knows the way to the Bowl, they play in an easy division, and if the rookie running back and offensive tackle solidify the offense, this team could be dangerous. Again, it's a value pick at 50-1 with a Super Bowl caliber coach in need of luck and a running game.

Its too tough to buck the tiger twice, so toss the New York Giants. Even though they are young, talented, and lucky at 22-1.

How about a live dog with some value in the Green Bay Packers at 35-1. The farewell of Favre will be finally finished and the Pack still has a solid, young team who plays hard. With the big Bret Favre bye bye, the bettors fled the Pack train.

35-1? In the weak NFC?  That's worth a shot. The Packers and the Panthers are respectively 14- and 15-1 to win the NFC title if one likes shorter odds but surer fields. The Panthers still gives one 2 1/2-1 odds just to win the NFC South.

Its hard to throw out the favorites, but a small wager to win a high return is a way to enjoy the season. Risk a little to win a lot is the only way to play the props.

One to bet early and often is the Indianapolis Colts currently laying 11 at home in their new dome against the Bears on the first Sunday Night Game of the season. This line will rise dramatically, perhaps topping 14 by kickoff.

The Colts will be frothing, angry, and attacking in front of a fervent crowd inside the new, loud Lucas Oil Dome. The Bears are in disarray and on the road with likely a rookie left tackle  and a rookie running back making their first start while struggling with noise, blitz pickups, and audibles.

The Bears' offense, particularly Rex Grossman, is horrible when pressed or under duress. Expect plenty of both. With no real receiving deep threat, a rookie running back, raw wide receivers, and a happy footed quarterback expect the Bears to be blitzed, blitzed, and blitzed some more.

The Bears will be more blitzed then Cedric Benson leaving happy hour.

Colts 42, Bears 13. We'll see five Bear turnovers, a frustrated defense, and a madman named Lovey roaming the the Lucas Oil slick sidelines wondering what happened to his Super Bowl team.