Nolan Arenado Trade Rumors: '50/50' Chance Rockies Trade 3B; Dodgers Not Likely

Colorado Rockies star Nolan Arenado "has roughly a 50/50 chance of being traded," according to MLB Network's Jon Paul Morosi.

Morosi reported six teams have touched base with the Rockies and that Colorado would prefer not to move Arenado to the Los Angeles Dodgers since he'd be staying in the National League West.

The Dodgers already have Justin Turner at third base, but that didn't stop them from pursuing Anthony Rendon, who signed with the Los Angeles Angels. Arenado would be a defensive upgrade over Turner, who would presumably move across the diamond to first base.

This follows one of the biggest trends of the MLB offseason. 

As the team attempts to decrease its payroll, WEEI's Rob Bradford reported the Boston Red Sox "are not actively shopping" star outfielder Mookie Betts but are willing to entertain trade offers. ESPN's Jeff Passan reported Dec. 3 that multiple MLB executives had said Cleveland Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor "is going to get traded."

Arenado differs from Betts and Lindor in that the Rockies aren't faced with a looming threat of free agency. He signed an eight-year, $260 million extension that went into effect in 2019 but can, however, opt out after the 2021 season.

The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal posited that opt-out clause gave the Rockies one incentive to consider trading Arenado now but reported some inside the league "are skeptical" a deal could happen before the start of the 2020 season.

Arenado remains one of the best third baseman in MLB. He was fifth in WAR (5.9) at the position, per FanGraphs, after posting a .315/.379/.583 slash line along with 41 home runs and 118 RBI. He'd obviously have a robust trade market and potentially provide the Rockies with the means to help build for the future following a 71-win campaign.

But Colorado will undoubtedly demand a high price based on Arenado's production and his status as the face of the franchise. Based on Morosi's reporting, the odds of the trade happening are just as strong as the odds of everything falling apart.