Predicting 7 Players Who Could Surface in MLB Trade Rumors at Winter Meetings
There is some superstar talent that could find its way onto the MLB trade market this offseason.
Earlier this month, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reported that, in the opinion of multiple MLB executives, at least one of Boston Red Sox outfielder Mookie Betts, Cleveland Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor and Chicago Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant is expected to be traded this winter.
However, it's not just the oft-mentioned stars who will drive activity on the trade block.
As we start to look ahead to the upcoming winter meetings, we've highlighted seven players who have not yet been mentioned in trade rumors this offseason but could soon see that change.
Past rumors, roster makeup and current team outlook all factored into highlighting these players as potential trade chips.
SP Chris Archer, Pittsburgh Pirates
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The Pittsburgh Pirates' move to acquire Chris Archer from the Tampa Bay Rays at the 2018 trade deadline has a chance to go down as one of the most ill-advised deals in recent MLB history.
Outfielder Austin Meadows was an All-Star in 2019, right-hander Tyler Glasnow looks like a budding ace after a breakout performance, and right-hander Shane Baz closed out the season as the No. 70 prospect in baseball, according to Baseball America.
However, there's still time for the Pirates to recoup some of that lost value.
Despite a 5.19 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 119.2 innings last season, Archer undoubtedly still holds appeal on the trade market thanks to his track record of above-average production.
He's making a team-friendly $9 million this season and carries an $11 million club option for 2021, so he's more than just a rental, and he could be the perfect buy-low candidate for a team looking to bolster its starting rotation without breaking the bank on any of the top-tier free agents.
There's little question the Pirates would be willing to listen as they explore ways to get cheaper and younger, and a team with a deep farm system like the San Diego Padres might be willing to part with a couple of mid-level prospects for a high-reward roll of the dice.
SP Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals
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It's been a bumpy road for Danny Duffy since a breakout 2016 season earned him a five-year, $65 million extension. Over the first three years of that deal, he's posted a 4.35 ERA and 1.36 WHIP while averaging 25 starts and 144 innings per season.
However, there is reason for optimism moving forward.
Over the final month of the 2019 season, things seemed to click for the southpaw, as he recorded four quality starts with a 2.37 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 30.1 innings.
The 30-year-old is still owed $30.75 million over the next two years, and the Kansas City Royals were unwilling to pay down his salary to facilitate a trade this past summer, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.
If they change their tune, he could prove to be a solid middle-of-the-rotation addition to a contending team while bringing back a nice combination of prospect capital and payroll relief to the Royals.
2B Cesar Hernandez, Philadelphia Phillies
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Will this be the offseason the Philadelphia Phillies finally trade second baseman Cesar Hernandez?
The 29-year-old has seen his name pop up on the rumor mill plenty in recent years, and as he gets set to enter his final year of arbitration, now could be the time to finally flip him in a thin market for middle infielders.
He put together a solid all-around season once again in 2019, hitting .279/.333/.408 with 48 extra-base hits and nine steals while also playing solid defense (6 DRS), all adding up to a 2.5 WAR season.
If the Phillies think top prospect Alec Bohm is going to be ready at some point in 2020, they could eventually be eyeing an infield alignment of Rhys Hoskins at first base, Scott Kingery at second base, Jean Segura at shortstop and Bohm at third base, with Maikel Franco serving as a stopgap to Bohm at the hot corner.
That would leave Hernandez as the odd-man out, and given the team's bloated payroll situation and his $11.8 million projected arbitration salary, it's easy to see how flipping him might be in the team's best interest this winter.
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RP Joe Jimenez, Detroit Tigers
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The volatility of relief pitchers always makes signing them to lucrative, multiyear deals in free agency a risky proposition.
Case in point, the Chicago Cubs gave Brandon Morrow a two-year, $24 million deal on the heels of a brilliant postseason run with the Los Angeles Dodgers. In turn, he gave them 35 total appearances over the life of that contract, missing the entire 2019 season to injury.
The inherent risk that comes with signing bullpen arms makes a pre-arbitration reliever capable of handling a late-inning role extremely valuable, and the rebuilding Detroit Tigers have one in Joe Jimenez.
The Tigers were willing to listen to offers for the 24-year-old at the deadline, according to Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press. He ultimately stayed put, moving into the closer's role in place of departed All-Star Shane Greene, who was traded to the Atlanta Braves.
He went on to convert nine of 10 save chances over the final two months of the season, posting a 3.06 ERA and 11.7 K/9 in 19 appearances after moving into the closer's role.
With a fastball that averaged 95.5 mph and a lethal slider (.186 BAA, .102 ISO), he has the electric stuff to be a late-inning force for years to come, and he'll be doing it for the league minimum in 2020. Jimenez is not arbitration-eligible for the first time until next offseason, and he's under team control through the 2023 season.
The asking price will be high, but in an extremely thin market for quality relievers, someone may very well be willing to pay it.
C Tom Murphy, Seattle Mariners
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The catcher market has moved surprisingly quickly this offseason, with top free agents Yasmani Grandal and Travis d'Arnaud both already finding new homes.
As a result, Seattle Mariners catcher Omar Narvaez has become a name to watch on the trade market, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN.
However, he's not the only Mariners backstop who could emerge as a potential trade chip.
Former Colorado Rockies prospect Tom Murphy was acquired from the San Francisco Giants last offseason, and he turned in one of the most surprising breakout seasons of the year, posting a 129 OPS+ with 18 home runs and 40 RBI in 281 plate appearances.
A .340 BABIP and unsustainably high 22.2 percent home run-to-fly ball rate likely means some level of regression is coming, and while Narvaez has some shortcomings defensively, he has proven himself offensively with a solid three-year run.
Looking at the bigger picture, 22-year-old prospect Cal Raleigh could be the long-term answer at the position after posting an .820 OPS with 25 doubles, 29 home runs and 82 RBI between High-A and Double-A.
So while Narvaez has been the early name mentioned in trade talks, don't be surprised if Murphy hits the block as well this offseason.
LF Joc Pederson, Los Angeles Dodgers
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The Los Angeles Dodgers discussed outfielder Joc Pederson in trade talks last offseason, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. After slugger Cody Bellinger emerged as a Gold Glove defender in right field and Alex Verdugo made a seamless transition to the majors, the team could make an even stronger push to deal him this winter.
The 27-year-old set career-highs in a number of offensive categories last year, including OPS+ (127), hits (112), home runs (36), RBI (74) and runs scored (83) in a 3.3 WAR season.
However, he's also entering his final year of team control, and he remains strictly a platoon option with a career .572 OPS in 375 plate appearances against left-handed pitching.
As things currently stand, the Dodgers' starting lineup figures to look something like this:
- C Will Smith
- 1B Max Muncy
- 2B Gavin Lux
- SS Corey Seager
- 3B Justin Turner
- LF Alex Verdugo
- CF A.J. Pollock
- RF Cody Bellinger
That's to make no mention of versatile veterans Enrique Hernandez and Chris Taylor, who are both capable of playing the outfield.
With all of that in mind, it's very possible the Dodgers will look to flip Pederson and his $8.5 million projected salary in an effort to fill another area of need while also saving some money.
SP Jeff Samardzija, San Francisco Giants
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At this time last year, it's not an exaggeration to say that Jeff Samardzija was one of the most untradeable players in baseball.
During an injury-plagued 2018 season, he posted an unsightly 6.25 ERA in 44.2 innings over 10 starts, and he was still owed $39.6 million over the next two years.
A bounce-back season has changed things.
The 34-year-old proved healthy by making 32 starts and working 181.1 innings, and he finished among the NL leaders in ERA (3.52, 14th), WHIP (1.11, 10th) and opponents' batting average (.225, 10th).
His $19.8 million salary for the 2020 season is still steep, but the fact that it's a one-year commitment could make him an attractive alternative plan to the free-agent market's top arms.
Gerrit Cole could command a record-breaking contract, Madison Bumgarner is no longer the ace-caliber pitcher he was in his prime, Zack Wheeler and Hyun-Jin Ryu both have lengthy injury histories, and Michael Pineda is coming off a PED suspension.
For teams that are wary of handing anyone from that group a multiyear deal, Samardzija could be the answer. The Giants should be motivated to deal and might even be willing to kick in some money if it means a better prospect return.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted.
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