In or Out? Predicting Where Every Fringe NFL Playoff Team Will Land
Every week, the NFL playoff picture shifts. The separation between contenders and teams set for a high lottery pick becomes clear at the end of November. Somewhere in the middle, several clubs either cling to wild-card spots or attempt to make a push for the fifth and sixth seeds behind division leaders.
Oftentimes, it's difficult to keep up with all the scenarios for fringe playoff teams. The Houston Texans beat the Indianapolis Colts on Thursday, and the latter fell from fourth to seventh in the AFC.
Going into Week 12, the AFC wild-card spots are wide-open, as the Buffalo Bills and Oakland Raiders hold the fifth and sixth seeds. In the NFC, a 10-6 squad could be left out of the postseason.
Let's take a closer look at 12 squads on the bubble, including the teams that occupy the last two seeds in each conference and the clubs that are vying for those positions. We've excluded division leaders.
Buffalo Bills (7-3)
1 of 13
Remaining Schedule: vs. DEN, at DAL, vs. BAL, at PIT, at NE, vs. NYJ
AFC Playoff Rank: 5
On the surface, the Buffalo Bills have an impressive record, but let's add some context. They have one win over a team with a record of .500 or better, the Tennessee Titans, who started quarterback Marcus Mariota in that game.
In Week 4, the Bills battled the Patriots down to the final minutes without quarterback Josh Allen, who exited the contest because of a concussion. However, Buffalo hasn't fared well against formidable opponents in recent weeks, losing 31-13 to the Philadelphia Eagles and 19-16 to the Cleveland Browns.
Because of its 20th-ranked scoring offense, Buffalo could have a close game against the Denver Broncos, who list seventh in points allowed per game and surrender the fourth-fewest yards.
If Bills beat the Broncos on Sunday, you'll hear chatter about their probable playoff chances, but take a look at the last five games—four against teams with a .500 record or better. We can't overlook the New York Jets in the season finale either.
In Week 1, Buffalo had to erase a 16-point deficit to Gang Green for a victory. Now, the Jets are rolling on offense, scoring 34 points in consecutive contests.
The Bills don't have "easy" games left on the schedule, and they haven't shown the ability to beat playoff-caliber clubs. Don't let the 7-3 record fool you—Buffalo will collapse down the stretch. Allen has thrown seven interceptions and fumbled 11 times (losing three) this season. Tougher competitors will capitalize on those mistakes.
Verdict: Out
Oakland Raiders (6-4)
2 of 13
Remaining Schedule: at NYJ, at KC, vs. TEN, vs. JAX, at LAC, at DEN
AFC Playoff Rank: 6
Similar to the Bills, the quality of the Oakland Raiders' wins will stir some skepticism. They have one victory against a squad with a record at or above .500, the Colts. Keep in mind, Indianapolis didn't have wideout T.Y. Hilton (quad), linebacker Darius Leonard (concussion) or safety Malik Hooker (torn meniscus) for that matchup.
On the flip side, don't overlook what head coach Jon Gruden has done with a young squad that depends on several rookies to play big roles.
As an Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate, running back Josh Jacobs ranks fourth in rushing (923). In Week 11, defensive end Maxx Crosby had a breakout game with four sacks. Wide receiver Hunter Renfrow lists second on the team in catches (33), and tight end Foster Moreau is second in touchdown receptions (four).
Expecting a young team to reach the playoffs sounds like a risky projection, but the Raiders have consistently beaten mediocre to below-average clubs. That's exactly what they'll see in the next six weeks with the exception of the Kansas City Chiefs.
Oakland has back-to-back home games against the Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars, who are also fringe playoff squads. The Raiders shouldn't overlook the Los Angeles Chargers or Broncos, but they've earned victories over both teams this year.
The Silver and Black opened the year facing one of the toughest schedules but finish with arguably the easiest slate of games among squads on the bubble.
Oakland could rattle off three or four more wins. In the case of the former, the Silver and Black may tie with the Cleveland Browns, who also have a favorable schedule down the stretch.
If the Raiders beat either the Titans or Jets, which is a feasible task, they'd have three wins against common opponents with Cleveland, which include Tennessee, Denver, Cincinnati and New York.
The Browns' losses to Tennessee and Denver would come back to bite them, giving the Raiders an edge if the two clubs finish with identical records. Oakland also has a tie advantage over Indianapolis because of a head-to-head victory.
Verdict: In
Indianapolis Colts (6-5)
3 of 13
Remaining Schedule: vs. TEN, at TB, at NO, vs. CAR, at JAX
AFC Playoff Rank: 7
Despite their loss to the Texans, the Colts are in good shape for a run at the postseason. Assuming T.Y. Hilton continues to suit up, Indianapolis has decent matchups in the next two weeks against the Titans and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who field the 22nd- and 31st-ranked pass defenses, respectively. Head coach Frank Reich could balance the offense and take some pressure off the ground attack that's missing Marlon Mack.
With that said, Mack's absence with a fractured hand will take some air out of an offense that ranks third in rush attempts. Yet Jonathan Williams has shown he can carry the load, logging 39 carries for 220 yards and a touchdown over the last two outings.
Fortunately for the Colts, Mack's injury isn't season-ending, per ESPN's Adam Schefter. Secondly, Indianapolis fields a stout offensive line that ranks 11th in run-blocking adjusted line yards (4.42) and pass protection, per Football Outsiders. Don't expect the coaching staff to abandon the ground attack.
If Mack can return by Week 16, he's primed to cut through the Carolina Panthers and Jaguars (again) on the ground. Those clubs rank 27th and 29th in run defense, respectively.
In Week 13, the Colts will host the Titans. If they win that game, this club could potentially go 4-1 in the last five contests.
Hilton's health (he's dealing with a nagging calf ailment) will be the X-factor in this team's push for the playoffs. He took the field Thursday on a limited snap count and had two uncharacteristic drops. Indianapolis will need him to play well through injury down the stretch. The four-time Pro Bowler gets the benefit of the doubt.
Verdict: In
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Pittsburgh Steelers (5-5)
4 of 13
Remaining Schedule: at CIN, vs. CLE, at ARZ, vs. BUF, at NYJ, at BAL
AFC Playoff Rank: 8
Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick quickly became a prominent playmaker in the Steelers defense. He's recorded eight pass breakups, five interceptions and two defensive touchdowns since Pittsburgh acquired him via trade with the Miami Dolphins. But that won't be enough to propel this club to the playoffs.
The Steelers are banged up. Wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster suffered a concussion in his last game and is also battling a knee injury. Fellow wide receiver Diontae Johnson practiced this week but remains in concussion protocol. Running back James Conner's availability for Week 12 is uncertain because of a reaggravated shoulder ailment.
On top of the injuries, center Maurkice Pouncey will serve a two-game suspension for striking Browns defensive end Myles Garrett in an on-field skirmish that involved Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph.
Pittsburgh won't see its toughest opponent until Week 17, but the offense features a backup quarterback and multiple key playmakers who could miss time. After a second matchup with the winless Bengals on Sunday, the Steelers may not win another game this season.
They can turn contests into defensive slugfests, but they don't muster up enough offense, ranking 24th in scoring and 28th in yards.
The Arizona Cardinals list 16th in scoring, and Jets quarterback Sam Darnold has seemed to hit his stride in New York. Those sub-.500 teams will give Pittsburgh a tough matchup.
Verdict: Out
Tennessee Titans (5-5)
5 of 13
Remaining Schedule: vs. JAX, at IND, at OAK, vs. HOU, vs. NO, at HOU
AFC Playoff Rank: 9
Quarterback Ryan Tannehill gives the Tennessee Titans hope for a late push. If the coaching staff had benched Marcus Mariota a game or two earlier, Tennessee might have a better shot at a wild-card spot or the division crown.
Nonetheless, the Titans still have two games against the Texans. If they can knock off the AFC South leader twice, we could have some chaos in the playoff picture.
Before its bye week, Tennessee gained some momentum with a win over Kansas City, 35-32. After a home outing against Jacksonville, this club has a daunting slate of games to finish the season, facing teams with winning records in every game.
With tough matchups against the Texans and New Orleans Saints in the final three weeks, the Titans would likely have to win the next three to avoid an 8-8 record, which is tough to fathom.
The Titans' 15th-ranked defense tends to bend but not break, listing seventh in points allowed. Derek Carr doesn't have gaudy passing numbers, but he's remarkably efficient, completing 72.3 percent of his attempts. He'll test Tennessee's aerial defense, which lists 22nd leaguewide.
Tennessee may have found its stopgap quarterback for the next year or two, but head coach Mike Vrabel's group won't carve out a pathway to the playoffs.
Verdict: Out
Cleveland Browns (4-6)
6 of 13
Remaining Schedule: vs. MIA, at PIT, vs. CIN, at ARZ, vs. BAL, at CIN
AFC Playoff Rank: 10
Don't bury the Browns' playoff chances. They only play one team with a winning record in their last six games. This club is also 2-0 in the division, holding wins by double-digit points over the Steelers and Baltimore Ravens.
The Browns won't have Myles Garrett, their sack leader, because of his helmet-swinging incident in Week 11, but they won't need him to beat the Dolphins or the Bengals twice.
Cleveland is set for an emotionally charged battle with Pittsburgh in Week 13, but we should expect the referees to establish a zero-tolerance environment because of the on-field melee in the first meeting. The Steelers won't have Maurkice Pouncey for that matchup.
Between the Browns and Steelers, the team with superior talent should come out on top. With Rudolph under center and Pittsburgh's injuries, expect Cleveland to win the game. Quarterback Baker Mayfield will have Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry, Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt at his disposal, putting pressure on the division rival's lackluster offensive unit.
The Browns will probably lose to the red-hot Ravens, but they can knock off the Cardinals, who are playing well offensively but lack the talent on defense (ranked 31st) to seal victories in close games.
Cleveland should finish 9-7, one game behind Oakland and Indianapolis for the wild-card spots.
Among the Browns' losses, the fall to the Broncos and backup quarterback Brandon Allen hurts their postseason dreams most. At 4-6, Cleveland may have to run the table to avoid tiebreakers and earn a legitimate shot at a wild-card berth.
Verdict: Out
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-6)
7 of 13
Remaining Schedule: at TEN, vs. TB, vs. LAC, at OAK, at ATL, vs. IND
AFC Playoff Rank: 11
Quarterback Nick Foles returned to action just in time for the Jaguars' playoff push. This club could move one step behind the Colts with a victory over the Titans on Sunday. Jacksonville faces Indianapolis in the season finale, which may turn into a high-stakes matchup.
In Foles' first game back from a broken collarbone, he had a decent outing, throwing for 296 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, but the Jaguars gave up 264 yards on the ground in a 33-13 loss to the Colts.
As a quarterbacks coach in Philadelphia in 2017, Jaguars offensive coordinator John DeFilippo worked with Foles, but the two will need time to mesh as the signal-caller picks up the offensive system.
Foles has only played one full regular-season contest in DeFilippo's scheme. Expect the Jaguars to lean on running back Leonard Fournette while the quarterback finds his rhythm. With those rough patches, Jacksonville will have some hiccups on offense.
After the Jaguars opened the floodgates for Colts running backs in the last outing, Jacksonville could have a huge problem with Titans running back Derrick Henry on Sunday, Raiders tailback Josh Jacobs in Week 15 and Indianapolis, again, in the last regular-season game.
Verdict: Out
Los Angeles Chargers (4-7)
8 of 13
Remaining Schedule: at DEN, at JAX, vs. MIN, vs. OAK, at KC
AFC Playoff Rank: 12
If the Raiders lose to the Jets on Sunday, the Los Angeles Chargers would sit just two games out of a wild-card spot. Despite their low conference rank, their playoff hopes are still alive.
With that said, the Chargers would likely have to win out to qualify for postseason play. They're 0-3 in the division, which leaves little margin for error.
Coming out of a bye week, the Chargers have winnable games against the Broncos, who sit in the AFC West cellar, and the Jaguars, who are clinging to playoff aspirations. On the other hand, both games are on the road.
Los Angeles isn't the playoff-caliber team from last year. Quarterback Philip Rivers looks like he's headed toward a sharp decline. With chances to beat the Raiders and Chiefs, he tossed game-sealing interceptions.
In a broader scope, Rivers has thrown for three touchdowns and seven interceptions while completing fewer than 55 percent of his attempts over the last two outings. He's throwing passes without much precision and turning the ball over at an alarming rate, which is hard to overcome.
Rivers' trend in the wrong direction will keep his team out of the postseason, and the Chargers may want to look for his successor in the offseason.
Verdict: Out
Seattle Seahawks (8-2)
9 of 13
Remaining Schedule: at PHI, vs. MIN, at LAR, at CAR, vs. ARZ, vs. SF
NFC Playoff Rank: 5
Thanks to quarterback Russell Wilson's MVP-worthy season, the Seattle Seahawks go into Week 12 tied with the Green Bay Packers and Saints for the second-best record in the NFC.
However, the Seahawks play in arguably the toughest division in the league. Because the San Francisco 49ers boast a 9-1 record, Seattle falls to the fringes in a wild-card spot.
The Seahawks should win at least 10 games with the Panthers and Cardinals on the back end of the remaining schedule. Carolina has lost its last two games, and backup quarterback Kyle Allen threw for one touchdown and five interceptions in those contests. Arizona has an exciting young signal-caller in Kyler Murray, but Wilson will likely shred its 31st-ranked defense.
The Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings are formidable opponents, but both teams have also struggled to defend aerial attacks, listing 17th and 24th, respectively, in receiving touchdowns allowed. Lastly, Seattle has victories against the Los Angeles Rams and 49ers with a perfect 3-0 division record.
The Seahawks have a pathway to 11 or 12 wins if their playmakers stay healthy. Furthermore, we could see a two-man race for league MVP between Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson and Wilson.
Verdict: In
Minnesota Vikings (8-3)
10 of 13
Remaining Schedule: at SEA, vs. DET, at LAC, vs. GB, vs. CHI
NFC Playoff Rank: 6
Minnesota has the luxury of playing three clubs with sub-.500 records in its final five contests. Of course, as we saw in a game against the Broncos last week, the Vikings could struggle with lesser teams.
Barring an unexpected faceplant, the Vikings could finish the season with 11 or 12 wins if they can beat teams closer to the bottom of the standings.
The Vikings may not see Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford in Week 14 because he's recovering from broken bones in his back. As Philip Rivers shows a visible decline, Kirk Cousins should take the field against the Chargers as the better quarterback. Minnesota fields a top-10 scoring offense, while the Chicago Bears have not logged more than 20 points since Week 7.
Minnesota has an extra week to prepare for Seattle with a good chance at earning a victory if wideout Adam Thielen (hamstring) suits up against the Seahawks' 29th-ranked pass defense.
Whether the Vikings win or lose to the Seahawks, three wins against struggling clubs should be enough for them to reach the postseason. Their Week 13 matchup with Seattle may decide which team secures the fifth seed.
Verdict: In
Los Angeles Rams (6-4)
11 of 13
Remaining Schedule: vs. BAL, at ARZ, vs. SEA, at DAL, at SF, vs. ARZ
NFC Playoff Rank: 7
The Rams have issues that will extend beyond this season. At 6-4, this is a competitive squad but nothing close to the offensive juggernaut we saw last year. Los Angeles has dropped from the No. 2 offense in scoring and yards to 11th and 13th, respectively, in those categories.
Perhaps running back Todd Gurley's lighter workload correlates to quarterback Jared Goff's struggles in the pocket. He's completing just 60.3 percent of his passes compared to 64.9 last year.
The front office signed Gurley and Goff to extensions over the last two offseasons, so head coach Sean McVay must find a way to reinvent the offensive attack with his key playmakers.
Los Angeles pulled the lever on a blockbuster trade deal for cornerback Jalen Ramsey, but he's struggled in coverage. According to Pro Football Focus' Jeff Ratcliffe, the fourth-year cover man allowed 14 catches on 17 targets in his first three games with the Rams, averaging 14.4 yards per reception.
Ramsey may need time to adjust to a new defensive scheme. Regardless of the reason for his limited impact, the 25-year-old won't solve the Rams' offensive problems.
Los Angeles may be able to slow down Baltimore with its fifth-ranked run defense, but the secondary doesn't have enough playmakers to stifle Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott with their pass-catching options in Weeks 14 and 15.
Furthermore, Goff doesn't have the accuracy to respond in a high-scoring matchup. Gurley's 16.3 touches per game aren't enough to put the Rams over the top and into the postseason.
Verdict: Out
Philadelphia Eagles (5-5)
12 of 13
Remaining Schedule: vs. SEA, at MIA, vs. NYG, at WAS, vs. DAL, at NYG
NFC Playoff Rank: 8
If not for the two eight-win teams in wild-card spots, quarterback Carson Wentz would have a better shot to experience playoff action. Philadelphia will play three clubs with one or two wins in Miami, Washington and New York (twice).
On the flip side, the Eagles field a mediocre pass defense (17th), and Wentz has limited perimeter weapons.
DeSean Jackson, the proven deep threat in the wideout group, will miss the rest of the season with an abdominal injury. Alshon Jeffery is averaging a career-low 10.4 yards per reception, and he's nursing an ankle ailment. Nelson Agholor can't establish consistency with his hands, as he and Jeffery are struggling with drops.
Tight end Zach Ertz leads the Eagles in receptions (55) and yards (621), but he's seldom in the end zone, hauling in just two touchdown catches.
Wentz needs a pass-catcher who can stretch the defense, which would create more room for running backs Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders on the ground. Philadelphia's rushing offense ranks 11th, but the unit isn't productive enough to rely on every week with a stagnant aerial attack.
The Eagles may not be able to keep pace with the Seahawks' seventh-ranked scoring offense. We already saw Dallas outduel Philadelphia in Week 7.
In Week 16, the Cowboys-Eagles matchup could decide the division leader while the loser misses out on the playoffs. Prescott is performing at his best, leading the league in passing yards (3,221), so Dallas looks to have the upper hand.
Verdict: Out
Carolina Panthers (5-5)
13 of 13
Remaining Schedule: at NO, vs. WAS, at ATL, vs. SEA, at IND, vs. NO
NFC Playoff Rank: 9
Kyle Allen's buzz was fun while it lasted, but it's over. He's thrown one touchdown and five interceptions over the last two games. Even more worrisome, the second-year signal-caller has taken 18 sacks since Week 8.
Although Christian McCaffrey remains effective running and catching out of the backfield with a league-leading 1,576 yards and 14 touchdowns from scrimmage, the Panthers have lost three of their last four games.
In addition to the turnovers and poor pass protection, Carolina's once-stingy pass defense has allowed at least 295 yards in two of the last three outings.
At 5-5, the Panthers are three games behind both the division-leading Saints and a wild-card spot. They face New Orleans twice, Seattle, Indianapolis and a resurging Atlanta Falcons squad that just beat them 29-3 on their field. That's a tough road to travel with a struggling young quarterback.
Carolina is trending in the wrong direction at a crucial time. Head coach Ron Rivera's job may be in serious jeopardy after another late-season collapse.
Verdict: Out
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