Week 11 NFL Picks: Vegas Betting Odds, Over-Under Spreads and Line Projections

The San Francisco 49ers' first loss of 2019 has not deterred the oddsmakers from setting a double-digit line in their favor for the Week 11 clash with Arizona. 

Just two weeks ago, the Cardinals were competitive at home with the 49ers and only lost by three points. 

Outside of the 51-13 thumping of Carolina in Week 8, the 49ers have been involved in games with a margin of victory of 13 or fewer recently. 

Speaking of the Panthers, their meeting with Atlanta has one of three over/under lines set at 50 or higher. 

Two of those three clashes involve NFC South teams and a recent trend suggests the overs could hit in those divisional matchups. 

NFL Week 11 Schedule

Odds via Caesars and Vegas Insider.

Predictions against the spread in bold. 

Thursday, November 14

Pittsburgh at Cleveland (-3) (Over/Under: 40) (8:20 p.m., Fox/NFL Network) 

Sunday, November 17

Houston at Baltimore (-4) (O/U: 49) (1 p.m., CBS) 

Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-3) (O/U: 44) (1 p.m., CBS) 

Buffalo (-5.5) at Miami (O/U: 39.5) (1 p.m., CBS)

Denver at Minnesota (-10.5) (O/U: 39) (1 p.m., CBS) 

Atlanta at Carolina (-5) (O/U: 50.5) (1 p.m., Fox) 

Dallas (-4.5) at Detroit (O/U: 49) (1 p.m., Fox) 

New Orleans (-6) at Tampa Bay (O/U: 50.5) (1 p.m., Fox) 

New York Jets at Washington (-1.5) (O/U: 38) (1 p.m., Fox) 

Arizona at San Francisco (-11.5) (O/U: 46) (4:05 p.m., Fox) 

Cincinnati at Oakland (-10) (O/U: 48.5) (4:25 p.m., CBS) 

New England (-3.5) at Philadelphia (O/U: 44) (4:25 p.m., CBS) 

Chicago at Los Angeles Rams (-7) (O/U: 41.5) (8:20 p.m., NBC) 

Monday, November 18

Kansas City (-3.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (O/U: 53) (8:15 p.m., ESPN; Game in Mexico City) 

Best Bets

Arizona (+11.5) at San Francisco

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

The line for Sunday's clash at Levi's Stadium has already dropped from 14 to 11.5, but it still feels like too high of a spread in favor of the 49ers. 

Since San Francisco's Week 4 bye, three of its five games would have covered the Week 11 spread if applied. 

However, the 49ers' three divisional contests have been determined by a combined 19 points, with the last two decided by three. 

Since the start of October, five of Arizona's six games have been decided by one possession, with the lone exception a 31-9 loss to New Orleans in which it played well in the first half. 

In four of those contests, the Cardinals produced over 350 total yards, including 357 in the home loss to San Francisco. 

All of those trends suggest Kyler Murray can be competitive in a road environment, just like he was in Week 2 against Baltimore and Week 10 versus Tampa Bay. 

San Francisco's offense may have trouble overwhelming the Cardinals' defense without a healthy Emmanuel Sanders and George Kittle. 

Sanders left Monday's game with a rib injury and will undergo an MRI Tuesday, per ESPN's Adam Schefter, while Kittle missed the clash with Seattle due to knee and ankle injuries. 

Even if both play Sunday, they would not be at 100 percent and Garoppolo may have to rely on a combination of Deebo Samuel, Kendrick Bourne and Ross Dwelley to beat Arizona. 

Samuel is the only one of those players with more than 250 receiving yards, so the San Francisco offense could face some production issues. 

The injuries may force the current line closer to 10 points, so if you can get the Cardinals as a large underdog now, we recommend doing so.

NFC South Overs

Jeffrey Phelps/Associated Press

Two of the three highest totals set for Week 11 have been applied to NFC South matchups. 

There is a good chance the two clashes exceed 50 points, as Tampa Bay, Atlanta and Carolina all rank in the bottom half of the NFC in points allowed. 

Before it held the Saints to nine points Sunday, Atlanta conceded 20 or more to each of its opponents. 

The Falcons could be gashed for yards by Christian McCaffrey, who recorded 317 total yards in two meetings a year ago. 

The MVP candidate has four 100-yard rushing performances in his last five games, and he is going up against a defense that allowed over 100 yards on the ground in four of five contests before the Week 9 bye. 

In 2018, Matt Ryan threw for 511 yards and five scores against Carolina and he has four games with three or more passing touchdowns this season. 

In the last five contests, the Panthers have allowed at least 385 total yards to Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, San Francisco, Tennessee and Green Bay. 

Carolina has held a single opponent under 20 points and allowed 95 points over the last three weeks. 

New Orleans could be poised for a bounce-back performance against a Tampa Bay unit that let up 909 total yards in the previous two contests. 

In Week 5, the Saints produced 457 total yards with Teddy Bridgewater under center. Drew Brees totaled 640 passing yards and four passing touchdowns in last year's pair of matchups. 

The last five clashes between the Saints and Buccaneers have averaged 54 points, with the 88-point shootout in Week 1 of 2018 earning the largest total. 

New Orleans' defense could throw a wrench in the over bets, as it held Jacksonville and Arizona to single digits in Week 6 and 8. 

However, the Saints defense gave up an average of 26.3 points in last season's NFC South matchups and it allowed 50 to Tampa Bay and Atlanta in their first two divisional clashes of 2019. 

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.

Statistics obtained from Pro Football Reference.