Week 10 NFL Picks: Final Vegas Odds and Predictions for Sunday's Slate

Kristopher Knox@@kris_knoxFeatured ColumnistNovember 10, 2019

New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) carries in the first half of an NFL preseason football game against the Minnesota Vikings in New Orleans, Friday, Aug. 9, 2019. (AP Photo/Butch Dill)
Butch Dill/Associated Press

Week 10 is shaping up to be a make-or-break week for many NFL teams. The Los Angeles Chargers, who lost to the rival Oakland Raiders on Thursday, are a prime example. They dropped to 4-6 and are headed into a daunting Week 11 matchup with the 6-3 Kansas City Chiefs.

Los Angeles isn't the only team teetering on the edge of a lost season. Teams like the Cleveland Browns (2-6), Arizona Cardinals (3-5-1), Chicago Bears (3-5) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-6) could see their seasons essentially ended Sunday.

How will things play out? Let's make some predictions. We will run down the latest odds and over/unders from Caesars, and examine some of the most intriguing matchups from Sunday and Monday.


NFL Week 10 Lines, Over/Unders and Predictions

Arizona Cardinals (+5, 52) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tampa Bay 28-26

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Miami Dolphins (+10.5, 44) at Indianapolis Colts: Indianapolis 26-20

Atlanta Falcons (+13.5, 51.5) at New Orleans Saints: New Orleans 34-20

Baltimore Ravens (-10.5, 44.5) at Cincinnati Bengals: Baltimore 38-22

New York Giants (-3, 44.5) at New York Jets: Giants 23-19

Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5, 49.5) at Tennessee Titans: Kansas City 24-20

Buffalo Bills (+3, 40.5) at Cleveland Browns: Buffalo 24-22

Detroit Lions (+2.5, 42) at Chicago Bears: Detroit 23-20

Carolina Panthers (+5.5, 48) at Green Bay Packers: Green Bay 27-24

Los Angeles Rams (-4, 43.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers: Los Angeles 28-23

Minnesota Vikings (+3, 48.5) at Dallas Cowboys: Dallas 32-28

Seattle Seahawks (+6.5, 47) at San Francisco 49ers: San Francisco 28-27


Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

Butch Dill/Associated Press

On paper, this game doesn't appear set to be competitive. The New Orleans Saints are coming off the bye, have a healthy Drew Brees under center and will have star running back Alvin Kamara in the backfield after a two-game hiatus.

"I'm happy to be back, just happy to be back practicing on the field with my teammates," Kamara said, per ESPN's Mike Triplett.

The 1-7 Atlanta Falcons, meanwhile, are already in a lost season and will have little to play for other than pride. Weapons like Julio Jones, Austin Hooper and Calvin Ridley should allow Atlanta to hand with the Saints for a bit. However, the 30th-ranked scoring defense (31.2 points per game allowed) isn't likely to hold for four full quarters.

The biggest drama here will come from the relatively large line, but New Orleans should pull away enough late to cover.


Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals

We will have a similar situation between the Baltimore Ravens and the rival Cincinnati Bengals. The Ravens are trying to emerge as playoff contenders, while Cincinnati is looking for its first win of the season. 

However, the larger line should make this one interesting. The Bengals only lost by six when these teams met in Week 6, and that game was in Baltimore. Cincinnati has also turned to rookie quarterback Ryan Finley, which could provide a spark to the offense.

There should be some back-and-forth on the scoreboard in this game, which is why the over also looks enticing. However, the Ravens should be able to control the game on the ground against Cincinnati's league-worst run defense (177.6 yards per game allowed).

Additionally, the Bengals won't see the return of star wideout A.J. Green on Sunday:

Without Cincinnati having additional firepower, expect Baltimore to run away with a high-scoring contest here.


Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys

Here we have a game that could go down to the wire.

The Dallas Cowboys have home-field advantage, while the Minnesota Vikings have the better team on paper. With weapons like Amari Cooper, Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott, the Cowboys have an explosive and balanced offense. Minnesota has a defense that has allowed just 17.6 points per game, fourth-fewest in the NFL.

The wild card here is Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins and his tendency to play poorly in prime-time contests—he's just 5-12 in such games. He's also struggled against Prescott and the Cowboys, while Dallas is more than comfortable in the nighttime spotlight:

Minnesota has enough offensive firepower to keep this one interesting, but the absence of Adam Thielen will hurt. Expect Dallas to make enough plays in the clutch to win by a score.