Realistic Free-Agent Destinations for Gerrit Cole This Offseason
Gerrit Cole narrowly missed out on getting a ring with the Houston Astros in October and AL Cy Young in November, but he's still about to cash a gargantuan check.
Which MLB team will write it?
ESPN's Jeff Passan listed nine organizations that are "positioned and motivated" to explore signing Cole. In addition to the Astros, that group includes the New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Angels, Chicago White Sox, Chicago Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals, Atlanta Braves and San Francisco Giants.
Throw in the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres and Texas Rangers, and that should compose the list of possibilities.
For various reasons, though―and that largely comes down to willingness to pay the largest contract for a pitcher in baseball history―not every destination is realistic. After all, per Andy Martino of SNY.tv, an MLB executive expects a contract in the neighborhood of $35 million annually over seven years.
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Not the Houston Astros
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The reality of this situation is clear: Signs don't point toward a reunion for Cole—a Scott Boras client—and the Astros.
"We're going to take a run at it," Astros owner Jim Crane said, per Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. "We don't know if we can get to where they want to get."
That not-so-enthusiastic statement followed Cole's not-so-enthusiastic press conference after Houston lost Game 7 of the World Series. While wearing a Boras Corporation hat, Cole reluctantly answered questions and said "it was a pleasure" to play in Houston, according to Daniel Gotera of KHOU.
That doesn't sound very encouraging, especially for a team hovering near the third luxury-tax line, per Roster Resource.
The Astros' financial limitations also likely apply to the Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants, St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs. The Texas Rangers and Philadelphia Phillies are likely to have the money available but, in our mind, will prioritize high-end position players over a bidding war for Cole.
Los Angeles Angels
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Pairing the best position player in baseball, Mike Trout, with the best pitcher in baseball would be all sorts of fascinating.
The Angels have a terrific chance to achieve that too.
"It will be west of Nevada," Astros teammate Josh Reddick said of Cole's future home, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today. "We know he wants to be a West Coast guy. He's a California guy, so he probably wants to be close to home."
Additionally, general manager Arte Moreno recently told reporters that the Angels' payroll will be higher next season.
That all adds up to one significant run at Cole.
San Diego Padres
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Though calling this a now-or-never situation is unfair, the Padres can hardly afford a delay in their push toward relevance.
After signing Manny Machado last offseason, the team watched its stacked minor league system pay dividends in 2019. Chris Paddack looked like a future ace, Fernando Tatis Jr. was a premier rookie and several other young players saw regular playing time.
Cole would immediately become the cornerstone of a promising―and currently inexpensive―roster in San Diego.
As the years pass, that young talent will demand contract extensions. Before that time arrives, the Padres should attack this window of contention and pursue Cole.
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Los Angeles Dodgers
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The Dodgers have money to spend and a potential need to upgrade the rotation. Sounds like a pretty good fit!
Clayton Kershaw remains a valuable starter, yet it's simply time to stop expecting his regular-season dominance will carry into the playoffs. Walker Buehler is a star, but top prospect Dustin May isn't a major leaguer and Hyun-Jin Ryu may depart in free agency. Rich Hill, 39, is an injury-prone option who could leave via free agency anyway.
Although the front office might hesitate to commit such a long-term, high-dollar contract, the Dodgers still haven't won a World Series amid seven straight NL West titles.
Cole is worth the price.
New York Yankees
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Eleven years ago, the Yankees spent the No. 28 overall pick on Cole. However, he elected to attend UCLA and ended up as the No. 1 overall selection in the 2011 draft by the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Perhaps this is a full-circle moment.
While the Yankees built an identity on having deep pockets, the team has operated a little more conservatively in recent years. Plus, New York is already pushing $200 million in projected payroll for 2020, per Baseball Reference, and needs to consider future extensions for Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez and Gleyber Torres, among others.
The "why" that Cole would potentially pass up the pinstripes is clear. However, this is also an opportune moment for the Yankees to flex their financial muscle and chase their first World Series title in a decade.
New York has the money. It's time to spend it.
Chicago White Sox
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Chicago has a promising roster that should be entering its competitive window in 2020. While the lineup needs a designated hitter and right fielder, stacking the rotation is imperative. The White Sox ought to be desperate for an ace in front of Lucas Giolito.
During his end-of-season presser, general manager Rick Hahn cited the team's economic flexibility, per Vinnie Duber of NBC Sports Chicago. Granted, the common sentiment is to temper that excitement, considering Hahn used that phrase in 2013 and 2018 yet the organization whiffed badly on marquee players last year.
Last offseason, for example, the White Sox refused to make the final push necessary to sign Machado. Will the front office, which needs to re-sign Jose Abreu, back away from Cole's massive price tag?
Talk is cheap. He won't be.
Committing that $240-plus million to Cole, though, would signal the White Sox are serious about building a championship team.
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