NFL Predictions Week 10: Upset Picks and Projections

The NFL is unpredictable.

Who had the San Francisco 49ers standing as its last undefeated team? Who foresaw the Los Angeles Chargers handing it to the Green Bay Packers, or the Baltimore Ravens throttling the previously unbeaten New England Patriots?

All of that said, there is now nine weeks of 2019 data in the books, so franchise identities seem as clear now as ever. And oddsmakers know it.

The latest lines for Week 10 show some deep divides between the league's haves and have-nots. They also project a decent number of close contests, so godspeed to all the fingernail-biting football fanatics out there.

Since you've come here looking for an early edge, we've assembled all the latest point spreads, courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, and laid out our top upset picks below.

Week 10 NFL Odds

Los Angeles Chargers (-1.0) at Oakland Raiders | O/U 48.5

Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.0) | O/U 52.0

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-13.0) | O/U 52.0

Baltimore Ravens (-10.0) at Cincinnati Bengals | O/U 46.0

Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns (-2.5) |  O/U 40.5

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-2.5) | O/U 42.0

New York Giants (-2.5) at New York Jets | O/U 43.5

Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans (no line)

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-10.5) | O/U 44.0

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (-5.0) | O/U 47.0

Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers | O/U 44.0

Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys (-3.0) | O/U 47.5

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-6.0) | O/U 46.0

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-2.5)

Had this matchup been played in Week 4, it would've been a battle of 2-1 teams. Since it's coming in Week 10, though, it's one NFC North free-faller against another.

The Bears have dropped four in a row. The Lions have lost four of their last five. The best possible advice for this matchup might be to divert your attention away from it altogether.

Except there's a decent chance to collect on the visitors here.

Detroit's recent skid has next to nothing to do with its quarterback play. Over the last three weeks, Matthew Stafford has thrown for 1,112 yards and 10 touchdowns against only three interceptions.

Chicago's troubles, on the other hand, have plenty do with its aerial "attack." Mitchell Trubisky has five touchdown passes—all season. Granted, he lost a game-plus to injury, but...yikes.

This league hinges on quarterback play more often than not. The team with the superior passer is not the favorite here. Your wagering senses should be tingling right now.

Prediction: Lions 23, Bears 17

Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)

The Browns are a mess. They've not only lost four straight, and they've been outscored 114-63 in this stretch.

Baker Mayfield has nearly twice as many interceptions (12) as touchdowns (seven). Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry have as many touchdown receptions combined as Ricky Seals-Jones (two). Cleveland hasn't held an opponent below 24 points since Week 3.

How, exactly, are the Browns favored here?

It seemingly has little, if anything, to do with the Bills. Sure, they haven't exactly faced a string of juggernauts, but winning six out of eight games means something.

The defense has surrendered the NFL's third-fewest points per game (16.4). The offense fully unleashed explosive rookie Devin Singletary this past weekend, then watched him erupt for 140 scrimmage yards and a score. Josh Allen's completion percentage is up more than eight points from last season (from 52.8 to 60.9), and he's almost matched his touchdown total in four fewer games (14, had 18 last year).

Again, what's going on with the spread here?

Sometimes, it means oddsmakers know something we don't. But this feels like they're counting on course correction, in terms of Cleveland's talent suddenly coming together (when it hasn't all season) or Buffalo lacking the pieces to win (which it's only done twice all year).

Prediction: Bills 20, Browns 13

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (-5.0)

Momentum is fickle...and maybe overrated.

Everything was trending up for the Packers heading into Sunday. They were riding a four-game winning streak—including triumphs over the Chiefs and Cowboys—and they had star receiver Davante Adams in action for the first time since September.

So, naturally, they suffered a 15-point loss to a Chargers team that still has a losing record.

Green Bay could not contain Los Angeles on the ground. Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler turned 32 carries into 150 yards and two touchdowns.

Think this unit, which has allowed the ninth-most rushing yards per game, is somehow ready for Christian McCaffrey?

He has gouged every team not named the Buccaneers and already tallied 1,244 scrimmage yards and 13 touchdowns. If Green Bay can't contain him, it won't matter if Kyle Allen loses the quarterback battle to Aaron Rodgers.

These are two really good teams, and this game is likely headed down to the wire. So, you should put your money on the side with the most dynamic player, and no, we're not talking about Rodgers.

Prediction: Panthers 28, Packers 24