Early 2019-20 MLB Free-Agency Contract Predictions for Each Top Star
The MLB free-agency season won't begin in earnest until the World Series confetti has settled, but it's not too early to look ahead and predict how much the top stars will earn.
The market has been volatile in recent years, with some high-profile players landing lucrative long-term megadeals while others have settled for shorter pacts and, in some cases, waited until well after Opening Day to find a home.
Based on recent trends and a healthy dollop of informed speculation, here's our guess at the contracts 10 of the offseason's biggest names will earn.
One caveat: We're excluding a quartet of high-profile opt-out candidates in Washington Nationals right-hander Stephen Strasburg, Chicago Cubs righty Yu Darvish, Boston Red Sox designated hitter J.D. Martinez and New York Yankees lefty Aroldis Chapman, since their statuses aren't yet known.
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OF Marcell Ozuna
1 of 10
Marcell Ozuna is eligible to receive a qualifying offer from the St. Louis Cardinals, and there's a fair-to-solid chance they'll extend it. Will he accept?
He just might.
Ozuna hit .241 with an .800 OPS and 29 homers this season, a solid output but shy of his career peak in 2017, when he posted a .924 OPS and picked up down-ballot MVP votes.
Ozuna could refuse the $17.8 million qualifying offer and gamble on free agency, but he'd be tied to draft-pick compensation. We're betting he'll take the chance to elevate his value for the following offseason and the Cardinals will pay him to stick around for at least one more year.
Prediction: One year, $17.8 million (qualifying offer)
RHP Zack Wheeler
2 of 10
Zack Wheeler posted a career high in innings pitched this season (195.1) along with a 3.96 ERA and nine strikeouts per nine frames. The 29-year-old should draw plenty of interest.
That said, the New York Mets are likely to extend him a qualifying offer, and he could well accept it, knowing he could try to build on his 2019 success and cash in next offseason.
Add the shoulder fatigue that sidelined him in July, and all signs point to Wheeler taking the one-year, prove-it route.
Prediction: One year, $17.8 million (qualifying offer)
LHP Dallas Keuchel
3 of 10
This season, Dallas Keuchel languished in free agency until June before ultimately inking a one-year, $13 million deal with the Atlanta Braves.
The 2015 American League Cy Young Award winner had a decent season with the Braves, posting a 3.75 ERA in 112.2 innings. On the other hand, he'll turn 32 in January. A long-term deal could be elusive once again.
It's doubtful Keuchel will settle for another one-year contract, but given his age and recent good-not-great performance, he's not going to get anything close to a massive payday.
Prediction: Two years, $20 million
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OF Yasiel Puig
4 of 10
Yasiel Puig remains one of the game's more intriguing, enigmatic talents entering his age-29 season. He'll probably never realize the superstar potential he teased early in his career.
But he's coming off a season in which he hit 24 home runs and stole 19 bases between the Cincinnati Reds and the Cleveland Indians. The tools are there.
No one is going to back up the Brink's Truck, especially given Puig's checkered history. But an athletic outfielder with power, speed and a howitzer arm on the right side of 30 should command a decent deal.
Prediction: Two years, $25 million
LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu
5 of 10
After accepting a qualifying offer last offseason, Hyun-Jin Ryu authored a highly successful campaign with the Los Angeles Dodgers, posting an MLB-leading 2.32 ERA in 182.2 innings.
He's entering his age-33 season and has never eclipsed 200 frames in six frequently injury-marred big league seasons.
That will diminish his earning potential, but he should pull in a multiyear deal considering he is ineligible to receive another qualifying offer under MLB rules and thus will carry no draft-pick baggage.
Prediction: Three years, $45 million
3B Josh Donaldson
6 of 10
Josh Donaldson inked a one-year, $23 million deal with the Atlanta Braves prior to the 2019 season and proceeded to post a .900 OPS with 37 home runs for the National League East champs.
He'll turn 34 in December and was limited by injury to 52 games in 2018. That's concerning. The Braves can extend him a qualifying offer, which he'll likely decline.
The 2015 AL MVP did everything he needed to do this year and ought to land one last high-paying contract, despite the red flags associated with a player entering his mid-30s.
Prediction: Three years, $60 million
C Yasmani Grandal
7 of 10
Catchers are always at a premium, and Yasmani Grandal is a premium catcher.
He posted an .848 OPS with 28 home runs and checked in as the third-best pitch-framer in the game, per Baseball Prospectus.
There are age-related worries, as he'll turn 31 in November. But Grandal is ineligible for a qualifying offer since he previously received one and is arguably the best backstop in baseball.
A win-now team with a need behind the dish will gladly open the checkbook.
Prediction: Four years, $90 million
LHP Madison Bumgarner
8 of 10
Madison Bumgarner turned in an impressively workmanlike season for the San Francisco Giants, tossing 207.2 innings with a 3.90 ERA and 8.8 strikeouts per nine.
His real value, though, lies in his legendary postseason legacy. Every serious contender hoping to boost its rotation will kick the tires on MadBum.
He'll turn 31 in August 2020 and battled some injuries in 2017 and 2018. He's also almost guaranteed to receive and reject the qualifying offer from San Francisco.
Again, however, he's an October legend coming off a strong season, which should net him a hefty free-agency haul.
Prediction: Five years, $110 million
3B Anthony Rendon
9 of 10
Now, we're entering elite territory.
Anthony Rendon is a legitimate MVP candidate who hit 34 home runs with a 1.010 OPS and an MLB-leading 126 RBI for the NL-champion Washington Nationals. He's 29 years old. Cue the cash-register sound effect.
Rendon may have to wait out the market the way his old teammate Bryce Harper and fellow third baseman Manny Machado did last offseason.
Eventually, though, someone is going to shell out gobs of cash for a player of his age, performance and pedigree.
Prediction: Eight years, $220 million
RHP Gerrit Cole
10 of 10
Gerrit Cole defined career year in 2019. The Houston Astros right-hander paced the game with 326 strikeouts and a 185 ERA-plus. He's mostly glistened on the postseason stage. Like Rendon, he's 29 years old.
Sure, teams can be wary about handing megadeals to pitchers. And, granted, Cole posted a 4.26 ERA as recently as 2017.
But this is a top-shelf hurler who optimized his value at exactly the right moment. A bidding war is guaranteed and, also like Rendon, if Cole waits out the market, he should land an obscene sum.
Prediction: Eight years, $225 million
All statistics courtesy of Baseball Reference.
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