2019 MLB Free Agency: Ranking the Top 5 First Basemen on the Market
The free-agent market has been a rough place for one-dimensional power hitters in recent seasons, which has directly limited the earning power of first basemen.
The best of the bunch last offseason was Daniel Murphy, who ended up signing a two-year, $24 million deal with the Colorado Rockies.
This year's market is a bit deeper at the position, but it's unclear what the market value of the top options will be this winter. Ahead, we've provided our ranking of the top five.
No assumptions were made about contract options or opt-out clauses, so the following players were not included in this conversation:
- Edwin Encarnacion—$20 million club option
- Ryan Zimmerman—$18 million club option
- Anthony Rizzo—$14.5 million club option
- Eric Thames—$7.5 million club option
- Matt Adams—$4 million mutual option
From that above group, Rizzo is the only lock to have his option exercised, while Thames also carries a reasonable price tag relative to his production.
With that out of the way, let's get started with our No. 5 available first baseman.
5. Todd Frazier
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After five seasons and two All-Star appearances with the Cincinnati Reds, Todd Frazier has bounced around to play with the Chicago White Sox, New York Yankees and New York Mets the past four years.
The 33-year-old is no longer one of the game's premier sluggers, but he's still a productive hitter and strong clubhouse influence. In the second season of a two-year, $17 million deal with the Mets in 2019, he hit .251/.329/.443 for a 106 OPS+ with 19 doubles and 21 home runs in 499 plate appearances.
He has played primarily third base in the majors, where he's an above-average option, but he has also seen occasional action at first base.
A platoon role at both corner infield spots could be how he prolongs his career. This past season, he posted an impressive .913 OPS with 15 extra-base hits in 142 plate appearances against left-handed pitching.
Honorable Mentions: Yonder Alonso, Justin Bour, Lucas Duda, Ryon Healy, John Hicks, Brad Miller, Steve Pearce, Mark Reynolds, Mark Trumbo, Neil Walker
4. Mitch Moreland
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The Boston Red Sox gave Mitch Moreland a two-year, $13 million deal last time he hit free agency, and he has quietly remained a solid second-tier option at first base.
A Gold Glove winner in 2016 and an All-Star in 2018, Moreland was on his way to the most productive offensive season of his career in 2019 before injury struck.
The 34-year-old hit .252/.328/.507 for a 112 OPS+ with 17 doubles and 19 home runs in 335 plate appearances, playing in just 91 games while spending time on the injured list with a lower back strain and right quad strain.
He's not the sexiest option at the position, and he's borderline unplayable against left-handed pitching, with a .598 OPS against southpaws and an .887 OPS against righties in 2019.
However, he's an above-average defender with 20-homer power, and he should come relatively cheaply.
3. Howie Kendrick
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Howie Kendrick played just 40 games in 2018 before suffering a ruptured Achilles that ended his season and left his future with the Washington Nationals in doubt.
The 36-year-old began the 2019 season on the injured list with a hamstring injury but returned with a vengeance to provide the World Series champs with an extremely productive bat.
While he didn't qualify for the batting title, his 142 OPS+ ranked 18th among players with at least 350 plate appearances. He finished the season with a brilliant .344/.395/.572 line that included 23 doubles, 17 home runs and 62 RBI.
Primarily a second baseman throughout his career, Kendrick saw action at first base (48 games), second base (23 games) and third base (15) in 2019.
"He's the greatest ever," teammate and fellow free agent Anthony Rendon told reporters. "I mean, you see the man. He's—what?—36 years old, and he's still doing it. He's built like a frickin' cinder block. He's huge. Man, he stays short. He's strong. So if he puts that barrel to it and stays behind the ball, you see it. He does damage. So he knows how to hit. That's what he does."
A similar hybrid role makes the most sense going forward, given his age, and he should be able to find plenty of interest from contenders looking to add a quality bat.
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2. Justin Smoak
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Justin Smoak has not come close to duplicating his 38-homer performance during a breakout season in 2017, but he's arguably become a more well-rounded hitter.
Take a look below the surface:
- 2017: 11.5 BB%, 39.4% hard-contact rate
- 2018: 14.0 BB%, 33.8% hard-contact rate
- 2019: 15.8 BB%, 42.7% hard-contact rate
In 2019, his batting average plummeted to .208, but some bad luck along the way was largely to blame. His .223 BABIP ranked 136th among 137 hitters with at least 500 plate appearances, so some positive regression likely awaits in 2020.
Despite not matching his peak power output, he has still hit 25 and 22 home runs the past two seasons, logging a 112 OPS+ and .346 on-base percentage during that span.
The 32-year-old earned $8 million in 2019, and a similar salary and a multiyear deal could await this winter.
1. Jose Abreu
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After a standout career in Cuba, Jose Abreu burst onto the MLB scene in 2014 when he hit .317/.383/.581 with 36 home runs and 107 RBI to win AL Rookie of the Year and finish fourth in AL MVP voting.
Over the course of his six-year career, he has posted a 134 OPS+ while averaging 36 doubles, 30 home runs and 102 RBI in 150 games per season.
The 32-year-old led the AL with 123 RBI in 2019, slugging 38 doubles and 33 home runs while logging a 119 OPS+ and earning his third All-Star nod.
He's a below-average defender (-22 DRS in his career), and he was significantly more productive at home (.905 OPS) than he was on the road (.769) in 2019, so he's not without some red flags.
However, he's a proven power hitter and one of the top run producers in this free-agent class.
In the end, the Chicago White Sox might value him above the rest of the market for his status as a leader in the clubhouse, so a new contract with the South Siders remains the most likely outcome.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted.
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