ALCS Schedule 2019: Pitching Matchup, Odds and Final-Score Prediction

The Houston Astros are a Game 5 win away from reversing what happened to them a year ago in the American League Championship Series.

In 2018, Houston opened the ALCS with a win at Fenway Park before the Boston Red Sox won four consecutive games. The New York Yankees began this year's series with victory at Minute Maid Park but have since lost three in a row to A.J. Hinch's side.

With Justin Verlander on the hill, Houston is in good position to achieve its second World Series berth in three seasons. New York plans to counter with James Paxton, who was pulled after 2.1 innings in Game 2. 

ALCS Schedule

Game 5: Friday, October 18 at New York (7:08 p.m. ET) 

*Game 6: Saturday, October 19 at Houston (8:08 p.m. ET) 

*Game 7: Sunday, October 20 at Houston (7:38 p.m. ET) 

*If necessary.

ALCS Odds

Game 5: Houston -143 (bet $143 to win $100); New York  +133 (bet $100 to win $133)

Via Caesars.

Prediction

Houston 5, New York 2

Since September 1, Houston is 7-2 when Verlander starts.

One of those losses occurred in ALDS Game 4, when Hinch trotted out one of his two 20-game winners on short rest.

In ALCS Game 2, Verlander rebounded by conceding two earned runs on five hits over 6.2 innings. If he continues to keep the New York order off balance, the home side may not have a chance to get back into the series.

Even though the 36-year-old should finish the series, the Astros are not looking past Game 5, as Jose Altuve noted, per MLB.com's Do-Hyoung Park.

"We're not thinking about the World Series yet because we're playing against one of the best teams in the big leagues, the Yankees," he said. "They're good hitters, good pitchers. One game at a time, and we win [Friday] and then we go."

If Verlander lasts six or seven innings, he would turn the ball over to a combination of Will Harris, Joe Smith, Ryan Pressly and Roberto Osuna to finish off the series. On Thursday, the four relievers combined for eight strikeouts while conceding zero hits.

The veteran should have more run support than Game 2, when Houston outscored New York 12-4 in two contests at Yankee Stadium.

Six Astros have two or more ALCS hits, while George Springer and Carlos Correa mashed a pair of home runs, including one each in Game 4.

However, there are still concerns about the Houston lineup since Yordan Alvarez and Yuli Gurriel are a combined 2-of-31.

The Yankees have four more hits in the series, but they came up short with runners in scoring position Thursday.

Aaron Boone's team left 10 runners on base. Its biggest failure came in the fifth inning, when Pressly shut it down after three runners reached with one out.

"If we're going to break through and have success, we've had our chances here these last few days,"  Boone said, per MLB.com's Mark Feinsand. "We've got to come up with a big hit in a big spot."

If the Yankees can't provide Paxton with decent support, there is no way back into the series for the AL East winner. In addition, the 30-year-old needs a long outing to preserve some of his the bullpen arms. In Game 2, Boone had a quick hook and removed the southpaw in the third.

Even if the Yankees win Game 5, that strategy will not be conducive to success with a potential bullpen day looming in Game 6 or 7 at Minute Maid Park.

In August and September, Paxton had seven appearances that lasted six innings or longer. If he returns to that form, the Yankees can be selective with which pitchers come out of the bullpen.

But even that may not be enough to keep alive New York since Chad Green and Adam Ottavino have been tagged for five ALCS runs.

Boone could avoid those two and opt for Tommy Kahnle, Zack Britton and Aroldis Chapman, but he has relied on Ottavino and Green in almost every game.

If the trust in certain relievers continues, the Yankees could be doomed versus a Houston order that is starting to find a rhythm.

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90. Statistics obtained from Baseball Reference.