2019 MLB Free Agency: Worst Values Sure to Be Overpaid
Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon are the marquee names on this year's free-agent market, and both players could wind up signing massive contracts.
They're not the only ones about to cash in, and for every excellent under-the-radar bargain signing, there's a player who winds up being massively overpaid.
From unsustainable breakout performances to players with lengthy injury track records, free agency can be a minefield of financial pitfalls.
Ahead is a closer look at five prime candidates to be overpaid this winter.
RP Hector Rondon
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Reliever Hector Rondon landed a two-year, $8.5 million contract from the Houston Astros last time he hit the open market.
The surface-level numbers over the course of that deal are solid. He appeared in 125 games and posted a 3.46 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 8.6 K.9 with 15 saves and 28 holds. The 31-year-old has no shortage of late-inning experience, having saved 77 games in his five seasons with the Chicago Cubs.
However, a look under the hood reveals some troubling peripheral trends.
While he posted a respectable 3.71 ERA in 62 appearances this season, it was accompanied by 4.96 FIP, which was a career-high mark and represented a spike of more than two runs over the 2.79 FIP he logged in 2018.
His hard-contact rate also jumped 28.8 to 32.4 percent, and his fastball velocity fell from 97.7 mph to 96.9 mph, according to Brooks Baseball.
The late-game track record might convince a team to offer up another multiyear deal this winter, but that could quickly prove to be a mistake if his 2019 peripherals are any indication of what's to come.
OF Cameron Maybin
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After hitting just .249/.326/.336 for an 86 OPS+ in 384 plate appearances with the Miami Marlins and Seattle Mariners in 2018, Cameron Maybin not surprisingly had to settle for a minor league deal last offseason.
He failed to break camp with a spot on the Cleveland Indians roster and reported to Triple-A, where he spent 14 games before he was traded to the New York Yankees for cash considerations on April 25.
The steady stream of injuries to the Yankees roster provided him with semi-regular playing time, and he made the most of it, hitting .285/.364/.494 for a 127 OPS+ with 17 doubles and a career-high 11 home runs in 269 plate appearances.
The 32-year-old should be able to find an MLB deal this time around, especially considering how thin the market is for players capable of manning center field.
Those offensive numbers could prove to be a mirage, though.
Among players with at least 250 plate appearances, his .365 batting average on balls in play was the 12th-highest and significantly higher than his .318 career mark. His strikeout rate also climbed from 19.5 to 26.8 percent, as the increase in power production seemingly came with more swing-and-miss in the batter's box.
He's still best served as a fourth outfielder, but the dearth of center field options could lead to a team hoping he can handle everyday duties and paying him accordingly.
RP Will Smith
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Time and again in recent years, we've seen relief pitchers wind up vastly overpaid.
If Aroldis Chapman decides not to exercise the opt-out in his contract, Will Smith will be the best closer option on this year's free-agent market, and that bodes well for his chances of landing a massive payday.
Will he be worth it?
The 30-year-old stepped into the closer's role with aplomb this season, converting all 23 of his save chances with a 1.98 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and 13.1 K/9 during the first half to earn a spot on the NL All-Star team.
However, he blew his first save of the season in his first appearance of the second half and went on to nail down just 11 of 15 save chances with a 3.72 ERA and 1.31 WHIP after the All-Star break.
He still finished with a 2.76 ERA and 34 saves in 38 chances, but his second-half regression should give teams pause before they consider offering up a three- or four-year deal in line with the other hefty deals handed out to relievers in recent years.
The better investment might be seeing if Houston Astros setup man Will Harris can handle ninth-inning duties or rolling the dice on a successful return to health from Dellin Betances.
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SS Didi Gregorius
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Didi Gregorius did not return from Tommy John surgery until June 7, and he never quite returned to his pre-injury form, hitting .238/.276/.441 with an 87 OPS+ in 344 plate appearances.
An offseason of rest and a normal preseason of preparation could lead to a bounce-back year.
After all, in his three full seasons prior to 2019, he posted a 108 OPS+ while averaging 27 doubles, 24 home runs, 81 RBI and 3.4 WAR.
However, there are other factors to consider before offering up a big contract to the marquee shortstop option on this year's free-agent market.
Aside from the offensive struggles, he was also not the same player defensively (-6 DRS, 0.1 UZR/150), and there's reason to believe his offensive production was at least partially a product of his environment.
Take a look at his home/road splits during his last full season in 2018:
- Home: 304 PA, .299/.372/.572, .944 OPS, 19 HR, 55 RBI
- Road: 265 PA, .233/.292/.408, .700 OPS, 8 HR, 31 RBI
Since the alternatives are Jose Iglesias, Freddy Galvis and Adeiny Hechavarria, any shortstop-needy team is going to have interest in Gregorius. Paying for his past production would be a mistake, though.
SP Hyun-Jin Ryu
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Lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu had an excellent season in 2019 that should land him somewhere in the top five in NL Cy Young voting.
The 32-year-old won the NL ERA title with a pristine 2.32 mark that was accompanied by a 1.01 WHIP and a terrific 163-to-24 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 182.2 innings.
However, he also earned $17.9 million in the process after accepting a qualifying offer during the offseason.
It will be hard to make the case that he deserves to take a pay cut after his standout 2019 performance, but spending in the neighborhood of $20 million on Ryu is a risky proposition.
This past season was the first time he topped 150 innings since 2014, as he dealt with back, shoulder and elbow issues before finally staying healthy for a full year.
And while his peripheral numbers do not reveal any glaring issues, his 3.10 FIP and 3.77 SIERA are a good indication that he pitched over his head in 2019.
Anything beyond the two-year, $34 million deal that J.A. Happ signed with the New York Yankees last offseason looks like a recipe for disaster, and Ryu will almost certainly exceed that AAV on his next contract.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted.
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