Best Landing Spot for Each Top 2019 MLB Free Agent
With 22 fanbases already focused on the upcoming offseason, free-agency content will continue to feature prominently alongside our playoff coverage.
This time around, we're looking at the best landing spot for each top player in the upcoming free-agent class.
For the time being, we'll make no assumptions regarding players with opt-out clauses, which notably excludes J.D. Martinez, Stephen Strasburg and Aroldis Chapman from this conversation.
Meanwhile, Mike Moustakas ($11 million mutual option) and Edwin Encarnacion ($20 million club option with a steep $5 million buyout) have a good chance of never reaching free agency, so they were also excluded from the discussion.
We were still left with 17 potentially difference-making additions, and we've highlighted the best landing spot for each of them.
Let's get to it.
Catchers/Infielders
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3B Josh Donaldson: Texas Rangers
The Texas Rangers once signed Adrian Beltre after he made a one-year pit stop with the Boston Red Sox, and he wound up spending eight seasons with the team while establishing himself as one of the best players in franchise history.
While Josh Donaldson is two years older than Beltre was when he joined the Rangers, a similar path to Texas makes sense.
Veterans Asdrubal Cabrera (90 games started) and Logan Forsythe (28 GS) handled third base as stop-gap options in 2019, and Donaldson would represent a major upgrade after posting a .900 OPS and slugging 37 home runs while proving healthy.
C Yasmani Grandal: Milwaukee Brewers
Though Mike Moustakas was excluded from this article, teammate Yasmani Grandal was not since he is far more likely to reject his $16 million mutual option. That said, even if he does become a free agent, there's a good chance he will wind up back with the Milwaukee Brewers.
The 30-year-old logged full-season career highs in on-base percentage (.380), OPS (.848), hits (126), home runs (28), RBI (77), runs scored (79) and games played (153).
With Manny Pina best suited for a backup role and prospects Mario Feliciano and Payton Henry still at least a year away, bringing back Grandal while the club's window of contention is still open should be a top priority for the Brew Crew this winter.
SS Didi Gregorius: Cincinnati Reds
Didi Gregorius began his pro career when he signed with the Cincinnati Reds as an amateur free agent in 2007. A pair of three-team trades sent him to the Arizona Diamondbacks and then to the New York Yankees, where he has emerged as one of the better offensive players at the shortstop position.
The Yankees have Gleyber Torres ready to take over as the everyday shortstop. They could then use DJ LeMahieu at second base, Luke Voit and Mike Ford at first base, and Gio Urshela and Miguel Andujar at third base.
Meanwhile, a Reds team that is pushing toward contention has a hole to fill at shortstop with Jose Iglesias headed for free agency and Freddy Galvis likely to have his $5.5 million option declined. Unless they feel confident in a bounce-back performance from Jose Peraza, a reunion with Gregorius is logical.
3B Anthony Rendon: Washington Nationals
According to Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post, the Nationals made a seven-year contract offer to Anthony Rendon in the neighborhood of $210 million to $215 million.
Svrluga added: "According to two people with knowledge of the negotiations, the proposal differs vastly from the 10-year, $300 million offer the Nationals made last September to outfielder Bryce Harper. That contract included about $100 million in deferred salary, with the final payment coming in 2052."
That would seem to imply that the Nationals are more serious about retaining Rendon than they were about retaining Harper, and if that's the case, expect them to do what it takes to get a deal done.
Outfielders
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Nicholas Castellanos: Chicago Cubs
It was a tale of two seasons for Nicholas Castellanos:
- DET: 100 G, 439 PA, 105 OPS+, 37 2B, 11 HR, 37 RBI, 1.2 WAR
- CHC: 51 G, 225 PA, 150 OPS+, 21 2B, 16 HR, 36 RBI, 1.5 WAR
Will that stellar performance following his trade to the Chicago Cubs be enough to convince the team to keep him around?
There would have to be a lot of moving parts for a reunion with Castellanos, and it could come down to a trade of Kyle Schwarber to make it work from a roster standpoint. Change is needed on the North Side, though, and a long-term deal for the 27-year-old could be the centerpiece of a busy offseason.
Marcell Ozuna: Cleveland Indians
The Cleveland Indians received middling production from their outfield unit all season, and finding a power bat to upgrade one of the corner spots figures to be on the offseason to-do list.
The team's outfielders combined for just 69 home runs, which ranked 28th in the majors ahead of only the Pittsburgh Pirates (68) and the Chicago White Sox (58).
Meanwhile, Marcell Ozuna has averaged 28 home runs, 94 RBI and a 119 OPS+ over the past four seasons, and he slugged 29 home runs in 2019. The 28-year-old won't come cheap, but he could be the missing piece in Cleveland.
Yasiel Puig: Chicago White Sox
As mentioned above, the White Sox finished dead last in the majors with just 56 home runs from their outfielders, and rookie Eloy Jimenez provided half of them (28 of his 31 home runs came as an outfielder).
Top prospect Luis Robert will be in the majors at some point in 2020 after hitting .328/.376/.624 with 31 doubles, 11 triples, 32 home runs and 36 steals over three minor league levels while reaching Triple-A. He's shown the defensive chops to handle center field, so a corner outfielder will be on the shopping list to round out the outfield.
The White Sox are on the rise, and with a strong Cuban contingent on the roster between Robert, Yoan Moncada and Jose Abreu—who is a candidate to be re-signed—it could be an attractive landing spot for Puig.
Right-Handed Starting Pitchers
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Gerrit Cole: Los Angeles Angels
A Newport Beach, California, native and a UCLA alum, Gerrit Cole would fill a glaring void atop the Los Angeles Angels rotation with a West Coast homecoming.
The 29-year-old will be a hot commodity, and understandably so. Aside from Max Scherzer, he's probably the best starting pitcher to hit the open market since Greg Maddux (CHC to ATL) and Roger Clemens (BOS to TOR) changed teams back in the 1990s.
If the Angels are serious about building a winner around Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, they have to improve a starting rotation that ranked 29th in the majors with a 5.64 ERA. Bargain signings like Trevor Cahill and Matt Harvey are not going to cut it.
Jake Odorizzi: San Francisco Giants
Jake Odorizzi picked the perfect time for a breakout season, earning a spot on the AL All-Star team while posting a 3.51 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 178 strikeouts in 159 innings to raise his strikeout rate from 8.9 to 10.1 K/9.
The 29-year-old will be an interesting case when it comes to the qualifying offer process, and whether he receives an offer will have a direct impact on his market.
With Madison Bumgarner likely headed elsewhere in free agency, the Giants will be looking for a veteran to lead their young rotation going forward. The draft pick compensation they would receive for Bumgarner signing elsewhere would essentially offset the draft pick cost of signing Odorizzi if he does wind up receiving a QO.
Zack Wheeler: Houston Astros
Even with Gerrit Cole and Wade Miley headed for free agency, the Astros still have a strong starting pitching foundation in place with veterans Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke still under contract and 2019 rookie Jose Urquidy slated for a larger role.
They have some in-house options to fill the final two spots on the staff, including hard-throwing Josh James, swingman relievers Brad Peacock and Framber Valdez, and top prospects Forrest Whitley and Bryan Abreu.
Still, with their window to contend still wide-open, they could opt to sign a proven free agent. While he won't come cheap, Zack Wheeler will be far more affordable than Cole, and he slots in nicely as the No. 3 starter with the upside for more.
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Left-Handed Starting Pitchers
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Madison Bumgarner: Minnesota Twins
With a young core in place on the offensive side of things and rising ace Jose Berrios fronting the starting staff, the Minnesota Twins would benefit greatly from adding a seasoned veteran like Madison Bumgarner to their rotation.
Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson and Michael Pineda are all headed for free agency, while Martin Perez is likely to have his $7.5 million club option exercised, leaving the Twins with multiple holes to fill on the staff.
The 30-year-old Bumgarner is no longer the elite-level starter and perennial Cy Young candidate he was in his prime, but he's still a workhorse fresh off the seventh 200-inning season of his career, and his 20 quality starts were tied for 11th in the majors. His impact might be felt more in Minnesota than anywhere else.
Dallas Keuchel: Philadelphia Phillies
The Philadelphia Phillies spent much of last offseason searching for a left-handed starter to bolster their all right-handed rotation but came up empty in their pursuit of Patrick Corbin and failed to land any secondary targets like J.A. Happ and Yusei Kikuchi.
A southpaw starter figures to be on the shopping list once again this winter, and starting pitching in general looks like a clear need after the team's starters finished 17th in the majors with a 4.64 ERA.
After posting a 4.83 ERA in his first 10 starts after debuting on June 21, Keuchel seemed to shake off the rust and hit his stride down the stretch with a 2.55 ERA over his final nine starts. With no qualifying offer attached this time around, there will be no reason for the Phillies not to pursue him aggressively.
Hyun-Jin Ryu: New York Yankees
On paper, the Yankees will enter next season with a starting rotation of Luis Severino, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, Domingo German and J.A. Happ, with depth options Jonathan Loaisiga, Jordan Montgomery and top prospect Deivi Garcia behind them.
That might not stop them from making a play for another quality starter to round out the staff.
Despite his NL-leading 2.32 ERA, a lengthy injury history and the fact that he will be entering his age-33 season will likely limit Hyun-Jin Ryu to a short-term deal. That could make him an appealing replacement for the soon-to-be-retired CC Sabathia, especially since he will not be saddled with a qualifying offer.
Relief Pitchers
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RHP Dellin Betances: Minnesota Twins
The Twins pieced together their 2019 bullpen by moving standout setup man Taylor Rogers into the closer's role and trading for veterans Sergio Romo and Sam Dyson at the trade deadline.
While addressing the mass exodus in the starting rotation will be their top priority, finding a quality late-inning arm to anchor the relief corps should also be on the shopping list. Taking a chance on the health of Dellin Betances could pay huge dividends.
The 31-year-old will not need surgery on a partially torn Achilles that he suffered in September. He has a lengthy history of success with a 2.36 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 14.6 K/9 to go along with 36 saves and 117 holds in 358 career appearances.
RHP Will Harris: Houston Astros
The Astros may be ready to let Cole and Miley walk on the starting pitching side of things, but they should do everything in their power to make sure setup man Will Harris doesn't get away.
The 35-year-old has been lights out throughout his time in Houston, posting a 2.36 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 9.5 K/9 with 103 holds in 309 appearances. Despite his age, he has shown no signs of decline with a career-best 1.50 ERA and 26 holds over 68 appearances in 2019.
Unless he has his sights set on closing games—an opportunity he would not be afforded in Houston with Roberto Osuna pitching the ninth inning—the familiarity and opportunity to win that the Astros present should make them the front-runners for his services.
RHP Daniel Hudson: Los Angeles Angels
Aside from Nicholas Castellanos catching fire with the Cubs, no player boosted his stock more after being included in a trade deadline deal than Daniel Hudson.
In 24 appearances following his trade from the Blue Jays to the Nationals, he posted a 1.44 ERA and 0.88 WHIP while saving six games in the heat of a playoff race. He also nailed down a save with a scoreless ninth inning in the NL Wild Card Game.
Hansel Robles was a pleasant surprise in the closer's role for the Angels, converting 23 of 27 save chances with a 2.48 ERA in 71 appearances. The bullpen as a whole needs help after finishing 20th in the majors with a 4.64 ERA. Hudson would provide a boost, regardless of what role he fills.
LHP Will Smith: Atlanta Braves
Are the Atlanta Braves content to open the 2020 season with Shane Greene and Mark Melancon competing for the closer role?
Greene struggled to a 4.01 ERA with two blown saves in three chances after joining the Braves, while Melancon has been effective but comes with his fair share of struggles the past few seasons.
If they prefer not to count on those two veterans, a run at the market's top late-inning arm could be in order. Will Smith tallied 34 saves with a 2.76 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 13.2 K/9 in his first full season closing games. As long as he doesn't receive a qualifying offer, expect the Braves to be among his top suitors.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted.
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