MLB Playoffs 2019: Round-by-Round Picks and Predictions
It's here, folks. After the 162-game marathon that is the MLB regular season, we've arrived at the playoff sprint.
Divisions, wild-card races and home-field advantage have all been decided. Now, it's time to play postseason ball.
Here, then, are our predictions for each round of the October dance, based on stats, health, head-to-head regular-season records and a lot of informed speculation.
Will we be right in every case? Don't bet on it. In this small-sample crucible, anything can (and often does) happen.
That's what makes it so much dang fun.
NL Wild Card Game
1 of 9
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals
Credit the Milwaukee Brewers for taking the National League Central race to the season's final day and earning a wild-card berth despite losing offensive anchor and reigning NL MVP Christian Yelich to a knee injury Sept. 10. That showed real resilience.
The Brew Crew, though, must now travel to the nation's capital to face the Washington Nationals and ace Max Scherzer in a win-or-go-home showdown.
Milwaukee will counter with Brandon Woodruff, who had a solid regular season and has held current Nationals hitters to a .222 average in his career. Also promising for the Wisconsin contingent: The Brewers went 4-2 against the Nats in 2019.
Scherzer, however, has held current Brewers hitters to an even stingier .182 average. That includes Yelich, who has hit .345 against him. Without their MVP, the Brewers won't generate enough offense to get past Mad Max.
Prediction: Nationals win
AL Wild Card Game
2 of 9
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Oakland Athletics
The American League Wild Card Game will be a battle of two small-market Davids who capably used their slingshots to beat the odds and make the playoffs.
This will the Oakland Athletics' third appearance in the Wild Card Game in the past six seasons. They lost to the Kansas City Royals in 2014 and the New York Yankees in 2018, though they'll host the game for the first time this year.
That's good news for the A's, who went 52-29 at RingCentral Coliseum in 2019, the fourth-best home record in baseball. They also went 4-3 against Tampa Bay.
The Rays are almost certain to start veteran Charlie Morton, who posted a 3.05 ERA with 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings in 194.2 frames this year. Morton's ERA, however, was a full point higher (3.59 to 2.59) on the road.
The A's will likely start either Sean Manaea or Mike Fiers. In five starts since returning from shoulder surgery, Manaea has posted a 1.21 ERA. Fiers, meanwhile, was one of Oakland's top starters over the summer and went 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA in two starts against the Rays.
This one's a toss-up. But with home-field advantage at last on the Athletics' side, we'll give it to Oakland.
Prediction: Athletics win
NL Division Series No. 1
3 of 9
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves
After winning the NL Central on the season's final day, the St. Louis Cardinals will face the NL East champion Atlanta Braves in a division series matchup.
The Braves will have home-field advantage and won the season series over St. Louis, 4-2. That said, the Cards were 26-26 after they played their final 2019 game against Atlanta. Since then, they've reeled off a 65-45 record.
The Braves have a stout young offensive core headlined by the likes of Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies and scored the third-most runs in the Senior Circuit with 855. The Cardinals, meanwhile, finished 10th in that category with 764.
On the other hand, St. Louis had the second-best team ERA in the NL (3.80) thanks in part to rising stars such as Jack Flaherty and Dakota Hudson, while Atlanta was fifth (4.19).
The Cards are coming in with a head of steam, as they had to battle until Game 162. The Braves are relatively rested after clinching the division Sept. 20.
This should be a hard-fought series, but we'll give the up-and-coming Braves the edge with a potential deciding Game 5 played in Atlanta.
Prediction: Braves in five
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NL Division Series No. 2
4 of 9
Washington Nationals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers finished with the best record in the National League and the second-best record in baseball at 106-56. Their pitching staff led baseball with a 3.37 ERA. Their bats topped the NL with 886 runs scored and an .810 OPS. They've won two straight NL pennants.
They are, by any measure, a juggernaut.
Assuming the Nationals advance past the Wild Card Game, they've got the talent on the mound (led by Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg) and in the batter's box (powered by Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto) to give L.A. trouble. But since Scherzer pitches against Milwaukee on Tuesday, he wouldn't be available on regular rest until Game 3.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, can hang back and stack their deep rotation as they choose, with Clayton Kershaw and NL ERA champ Hyun-Jin Ryu the likely choices for Games 1 and 2, respectively.
The Dodgers won the season series against Washington, 4-3. They should fare even better in their division series tussle.
Prediction: Dodgers in four
AL Division Series No. 1
5 of 9
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees
The New York Yankees and Minnesota Twins will face off in an AL division series derby, er, series.
The Twins set the all-time MLB record for home runs in a season with 307. The Yankees finished second with 306. Both marks obliterated the previous record of 267 set last year by...wait for it...the Yankees.
These teams can rake.
Both clubs also lack a postseason-tested ace and feature decent but not great starting rotations. Expect some high-scoring affairs and a lot of long balls.
Ageless veteran Nelson Cruz (41 homers), Max Kepler (36), Miguel Sano (34), Eddie Rosario (32) and Mitch Garver (31) highlight the Twins' power attack.
The Yankees counter with Gleyber Torres (38) and Gary Sanchez (34), as well as towering masher Aaron Judge (27 homers in 102 games) and generational slugger Giancarlo Stanton, who is healthy and reportedly finding his stroke after missing most of the season due to injury.
The Yankees will have home-field advantage and won the season series, 4-2.
Here's an interesting fact: Since 2003, the Twins have gone 2-16 in the postseason. Thirteen of those losses have come against the Yankees.
Of course, many of those losses came with vastly or entirely different rosters for both franchises. The Twins are young and ought to be bursting with confidence after a 101-61 season. But that kind of recent historical dominance coupled with home field should be enough to tip this one in the Yanks' direction.
Prediction: Yankees in five
AL Division Series No. 2
6 of 9
Oakland Athletics vs. Houston Astros
The A's will face a steep challenge if they get past the AL Wild Card Game. The Houston Astros are owners of the game's best record at 107-55 and best home record at 60-21.
They finished second in the AL with a 3.66 ERA and led baseball with an .848 OPS. They'll also charge into the division series with the well-rested duo of Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, the top two contenders for the American League Cy Young Award.
The A's held their own against the 'Stros in the regular season, as Houston won 11 of the 19 head-to-head matchups and Oakland took eight. The Athletics could steal a game, especially at home.
In the end, though, the loaded Astros should win this series with relative ease.
Prediction: Astros in four
National League Championship Series
7 of 9
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
This series would showcase some of the game's most exciting 25-and-under talent: the Braves' Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies and the Dodgers' Cody Bellinger and Corey Seager, to name just four.
The Braves' young bats are joined by veteran boppers such as Freddie Freeman and Josh Donaldson to form a potent offensive attack that rivals the Dodgers'.
The series may hinge on the clubs' respective starting rotations, though.
The Dodgers led the majors in starters' ERA (3.11) and boast a deep stable of pitchers capable of going multiple innings. Atlanta's starters, meanwhile, finished seventh in the NL with a 4.20 ERA.
This should be a good matchup, and the Braves certainly won't roll over. But we'll predict L.A. wins it 4-2, the same mark it posted against Atlanta in the regular season.
Prediction: Dodgers in six
American League Championship Series
8 of 9
New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros
If they slug past the Twinkies, the Yankees will have to sink their teeth into the Astros.
Here's some bad news for the Yanks: Their current group of hitters owns a .208 average against Gerrit Cole and a .193 average against Justin Verlander. Expect that duo to combine for at least three starts, if not four, in this series.
Runs will be scored with all of the games played in the hitter-friendly confines of Yankee Stadium and Minute Maid Park. But Cole and Verlander could be the difference-makers for Houston.
The Astros won the season series against New York, 4-3. That's the same margin by which they defeated the Yankees in the 2017 ALCS.
We'll pick the 'Stros to win this series as well, in one fewer game.
Prediction: Astros in six
World Series
9 of 9
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astros
No, it isn't especially daring to predict the teams with the two best regular-season records will clash in the World Series. But be honest: Are you betting against either of these clubs?
We've laid out the numbers that show why Houston and Los Angeles are the two most complete, dangerous squads in baseball. They can pitch. They can hit. They have very few weaknesses.
So what will be the deciding factor? Not to be a broken record, but we're going with the Cole/Verlander buzz saw once again.
Yes, the Dodgers have tons of pitching, as mentioned. But the Astros' twosome has the stats, stamina and stuff to mimic the legendary duo of Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling, who carried the Arizona Diamondbacks to a title in 2001.
No matter what, this will be a memorable battle. Like the Fall Classic showdown between these teams in 2017, it should go the full seven. And also like in '17, we foresee Houston will bathe in champagne and confetti.
Prediction: Astros in seven
All statistics courtesy of Baseball Reference.
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