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Atlanta Braves third baseman Josh Donaldson throws out New York Mets Ruben Tejada at first base during a baseball game Wednesday, Aug.14, 2019, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/John Amis)
Atlanta Braves third baseman Josh Donaldson throws out New York Mets Ruben Tejada at first base during a baseball game Wednesday, Aug.14, 2019, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/John Amis)John Amis/Associated Press

2019 MLB Free Agents: Predictions for Top Stars Before Regular Season Ends

Adam WellsSep 29, 2019

The eyes of Major League Baseball are focused on the postseason, but there are 20 teams not playing in October that have to turn their attention toward 2020.

Recent offseasons have been more notable for trades and the long wait for top free agents to sign. This year could feature more of the same, especially with players like Mookie Betts, Francisco Lindor and Kris Bryant rumored to be on the trade block.

Regardless of how it happens, there does figure to be a lot of significant player movement across MLB by the time teams report to spring training in February.

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Since there will be time to sift out all of the trade rumblings, this is a good time to offer an early look at the possibilities for free agency.

Here are predictions for where some of the most effective hitters on the market will end up in 2020.

Josh Donaldson, 3B (Current Team: Atlanta Braves)

2019 Stats: 154 G, .260/.380/.524, 37 HR, 94 RBI, 96 Runs

An injury-plagued 2018 forced Josh Donaldson to settle for a one-year deal from the Atlanta Braves. It worked out well for both parties, as he had a successful rebound season to help the team win the National League East for the second straight year.

Based on the kind of numbers Donaldson put up in 2019, he would seem like an easy candidate to get a lucrative multiyear deal from some team. The most important number for the former American League MVP might be one that hurts him is age: 34.

Donaldson will turn 34 on Dec. 8.

Per MLB Trade Rumors, the largest free-agent deal given to a player over 30 last offseason was A.J. Pollock's $55 million pact over five years with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Since Pollock was frequently injured during his time with the Arizona Diamondbacks, including missing 49 games in 2018, the No. 2 player on that list was Andrew McCutchen (three years, $50 million from the Philadelphia Phillies).

Donaldson is coming off a better season than either of those players was when hitting free agency, but his age will likely work against him in terms of years teams will offer.

This might work in favor of the Braves, especially since they already locked up Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies to long-term deals. Spotrac estimates their 2020 payroll at $82.6 million, which would seem to give them a lot of flexibility.

Donaldson told reporters when he signed with Atlanta in November that he grew up rooting for the team. This franchise is right in the middle of its contending window, so there's no reason to tighten the purse strings and break up a good thing that's clearly working.

Prediction: Donaldson re-signs with Braves for two years, $45 million.

Nicholas Castellanos, OF (Current Team: Chicago Cubs)

2019 Stats: 151 G, .289/.337/.525, 27 HR, 73 RBI, 100 Runs

If Nicholas Castellanos was only judged by his half-season with the Chicago Cubs, he would be in line for one of the biggest contracts this offseason. The Florida native hit .321/.356/.646 in 51 games after being traded from the Detroit Tigers.

Factor in Castellanos' age (27), one could assume the suitors would line up to make a deal. There are other aspects to his game that does temper his outlook. Since moving to the outfield full time at the start of 2018, he's the second-worst defensive outfielder by FanGraphs runs saved (-29).

He only has a .326 career on-base percentage and has only hit more than 20 homers twice in seven seasons.

Since Cubs ownership doesn't appear inclined to add payroll this offseason, Castellanos seems unlikely to return to Chicago.

On the positive side, being traded midseason might work to Castellanos' benefit since he can't receive a qualifying offer from the Cubs. That at least allows interested teams to consider signing him for a deal worth at least $50 million, knowing they won't also have to sacrifice a draft pick.

Looking at the list of teams that need a starting right fielder who are likely to spend money, the Chicago White Sox are an interesting fit. He would fill a need because their primary right fielder was Ryan Cordell, who has a .642 OPS.

The White Sox already have their foundation pieces on offense with Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada and Eloy Jimenez. Castellanos is a solid secondary piece who gives them more depth in the lineup.

Pitching is a more pressing need for the White Sox, but they only have $15.3 million in guaranteed contracts on the books next season, not including arbitration and options, per Baseball Reference. They could give Castellanos a deal and still have plenty to pursue a high-end starting pitcher like Gerrit Cole.

The White Sox tried to spend last offseason with a reported offer to Manny Machado worth $250 million over eight years and another $100 million in incentives, per The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal.

If their ownership remains aggressive and spreads that money around to multiple players this winter, the White Sox can make themselves a factor in the AL Central.

Prediction: Castellanos signs with White Sox for four years, $80 million.

J.D. Martinez, OF/DH (Current Team: Boston Red Sox)

2019 Stats: 144 G, .305/.383/.556, 35 HR, 104 RBI, 97 Runs

This comes with a caveat because J.D. Martinez isn't guaranteed to become a free agent. The three-time All-Star has an opt-out clause in his deal with the Boston Red Sox.

One practical reason for Martinez to remain in Boston is the hassle he had in free agency two years ago. The 32-year-old didn't officially sign the five-year, $110 million pact until Feb. 26. Being two years older and primarily limited to being a designated hitter doesn't seem to boost his stock.

However, the Red Sox appear ready to move in a different direction just 12 months after winning a World Series title.

Per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, Red Sox ownership would like to get under the luxury tax within the next two years, which could lead to them "parting ways with J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts or possibly even both this winter."

If Martinez and agent Scott Boras get the sense Boston will trade him, it could be in his best interest to opt out and have control over where he ends up playing in 2020. He would seem to be limited to an AL team because of his limited defensive abilities.

If the White Sox don't like Castellanos, Martinez would be a better fit for them because he's a better overall hitter and may not cost as much given his age. Chicago's designated hitters own a .203/.282/.346 slash line this season.

A sleeper option for Martinez are the Oakland Athletics. They don't typically spend a lot of money on free agents, but general manager David Forst did make a serious bid for Edwin Encarnacion three years ago that ESPN's Jeff Passan reported was for more average annual money than the three-year, $60 million deal he received from the Cleveland Indians.

The A's have more incentive to go hard after free agents because they remain behind the Houston Astros in the AL West despite winning 194 games since the start of 2018. Khris Davis' presence does complicate things, but they could try to use him or Martinez in left field to replace Chad Pinder (.700 OPS).

Prediction: Martinez signs with Athletics for three years, $65 million.

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