End-of-Year 2019 MLB Awards Picks for MVP, Cy Young, ROY and More
As the regular season winds down and the playoffs approach, it's time to make our end-of-the-year picks for the major MLB awards in both leagues.
That would be Manager of the Year, Rookie of the Year, the Cy Young Award and MVP. In some cases, the choice is obvious; in others, the races could be exceedingly tight.
As ever, picks are based on stats, past award voting trends and a dollop of informed speculation.
NL Manager of the Year
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The National League Manager of the Year race is wide open, with a trio of plausible winners.
The Milwaukee Brewers' Craig Counsell will get strong consideration for guiding the Brewers to the playoffs despite a thin starting pitching staff and a knee injury that ended reigning NL MVP Christian Yelich's season on Sept. 10.
The Washington Nationals' Dave Martinez is in the mix after leading the Nats to a wild-card berth in the first year of the post-Bryce Harper era. The Los Angeles Dodgers' Dave Roberts and Atlanta Braves' Brian Snitker (who won the award last year) could also garner votes after their clubs handily won the NL West and NL East, respectively.
But look for the prize to go to St. Louis skipper Mike Shildt, whose Cards won a division title after missing the playoffs for three straight seasons. That's the kind of notable turnaround voters tend to favor in MOY balloting.
AL Manager of the Year
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Speaking of notable turnarounds, the Minnesota Twins went from a 78-84 finish in 2018 to 101 wins and their first American League Central title since 2010. That ought to be enough to earn skipper Rocco Baldelli AL MOY honors.
He'll have competition from the New York Yankees' Aaron Boone, whose squad overcame a record-breaking number of injuries to win the AL East going away. The Oakland Athletics' Bob Melvin may also get support after his small-market A's snagged a wild-card spot.
New York and Oakland were both playoff teams last year, however, while Baldelli's Twins have that comeback-contender smell voters often covet.
NL Rookie of the Year
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If groin and back injuries hadn't derailed his season, the San Diego Padres' Fernando Tatis Jr. could have made the NL Rookie of the Year race interesting. As it is, this prize belongs to the New York Mets' Pete Alonso in a landslide.
The power-hitting first baseman set a rookie record, and paced MLB, with 53 home runs while tallying 120 RBI and posting a .941 OPS.
In addition to what will likely be a unanimous ROY win, the 24-year-old should pick up down-ballot MVP votes.
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AL Rookie of the Year
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While he's not quite as much of a slam-dunk as Alonso, the Houston Astros' Yordan Alvarez should handily win AL Rookie of the Year.
Since his June call-up, Alvarez has raked to the tune of a 1.078 OPS with 27 home runs in 86 games. He's played the bulk of his games at designated hitter, which limits his defensive value. But his bat has more than made up for it.
The Tampa Bay Rays' versatile Brandon Lowe warrants mention after posting an .850 OPS and logging innings at first base, second base, left field and right field. But this is Alvarez's award all the way.
NL Cy Young Award
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It was a disappointing season for the New York Mets, who finished a distant third in the NL East despite adding pieces over the winter with an eye on contention.
As a consolation prize, the Queens contingent could see two players win major awards.
Right-hander Jacob deGrom led the Senior Circuit in strikeouts (255) and finished second in WHIP (0.971) and ERA (2.43) while posting the third most innings pitched (204).
He'll have competition from the Nationals' Max Scherzer (2.92 ERA, 172.1 IP, 243 SO) and the Dodgers' Hyun-Jin Ryu (NL-leading 2.32 ERA, 182.2 IP, 163 SO). Both might get extra consideration because they pitched for playoff teams.
But deGrom's dominance ought to outweigh the Mets' mediocrity and earn him a second consecutive NL Cy Young Award.
AL Cy Young Award
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This one is a two-horse race between a pair of Astros aces.
Gerrit Cole led baseball with 316 strikeouts while posting a 2.52 ERA in 207.1 innings. If not for his teammate, Justin Verlander, the AL Cy Young Award would be his.
Verlander, however, paced MLB in WHIP (0.803) and innings pitched (223) while posting a 2.58 ERA and striking out an even 300.
That should be enough to give Verlander the edge and add a second Cy Young to the 36-year-old's crowded trophy case.
NL MVP
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As mentioned, Christian Yelich's season ended early when he fouled a ball off his kneecap on Sept. 10. That could ding his chances of repeating as NL MVP.
On the other hand, Yelich tied for the NL batting title with a .329 average while cracking 44 home runs and posting a 1.100 OPS. Those are MVP-worthy numbers, injury or no.
Cases can be made for the Dodgers' Cody Bellinger (.303 AVG, 47 HR, 1.033 OPS) and the Nationals' Anthony Rendon (.319 AVG, 34 HR, 1.010 OPS). It wouldn't be a shock if either won the award.
Had the Brewers missed the playoffs, Yelich might have lost out on MVP honors. Silly as it sounds, that's often how voters roll.
As is, we'll give the Brewers' right fielder a slight edge.
AL MVP
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Mike Trout was shut down for the season on Sept. 7 due to a foot injury that required surgery. The Los Angeles Angels missed the playoffs. Those would appear to be knocks on Trout's MVP case.
Counterpoint: Trout led baseball with a .438 on-base percentage and 186 OPS+ while swatting a career-high 45 home runs.
The Astros' Alex Bregman (41 HR, .295 AVG, 1.012 OPS) is in the picture, but his only real edge over Trout is that Houston made the postseason. If you're looking for a dark horse, Verlander might earn some votes.
But despite the Halos' haplessness, it's difficult to imagine voters snubbing Trout as they did in 2017 and 2018. He's the best player on the planet, and he played like it in 2019 with no clear competition in the AL.
All statistics current as of Sunday and courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.
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