Matt Miller's Scouting Notebook: Scouts' Biggest 2020 NFL Draft Surprises so Far

There is no better feeling in player evaluation than being pleasantly surprised. We all like to get evaluations right, but watching games at either the college or pro level and seeing a player outperform your expectations is a wonderful experience. 

When you have a locked-in perception of a player—whether it's from last year's tape or from what coaches have told you about them—and it gets rocked not by hearsay or rumors, but by play on the field...well, that's why most of us are doing this job. It's why you'll see pro-Daniel Jones tweets from many who weren't huge fans of his in the predraft process. We want players to succeed. Any evaluator rooting for a player to fail so they can appear to be right needs to find a new line of work.

Through four weeks of play in the 2019 college season, who is impressing evaluators? I polled a handful of scouts this week with that question in mind.

Joe Burrow, QB, LSU

Scout's take: "UCF must have knocked something loose when they hit him in the bowl game because he's been unstoppable since. I still want to see him play some SEC defenses, but he could be a first-rounder, no doubt."

Burrow has been impressive since LSU's win over UCF in the 2019 Fiesta Bowl. To start the season, he has thrown an incredible 17 touchdowns to just two interceptions in four games. He's doing so with the kind of leadership and character that sources on the team can't stop raving about. Scouts are catching on, with Burrow's name being floated often as a potential Round 1 riser. And he looks like the type of player who could boost his stock at the Senior Bowl, as Daniel Jones did last year.

Jacob Eason, QB, Washington

Scout's take: "Talent has never been the issue. But he got hurt [at Georgia], and Jake Fromm stole his job. He has a massive arm and can move around. I think the biggest questions with him will be decision-making and maturity, but on the field, he's beautiful."

Eason posted a nearly perfect stat line against a good BYU team (24-of-28, 290 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT), which may have given him a bigger spotlight in the national conversation about this year's top quarterbacks. Eason, as the scout says, has never lacked for talent. He had the best arm at Georgia with Fromm there, and teammates have told me it's stronger than Justin Fields'. The key with Eason will be control and decision-making. Right now he looks a little wild, but Huskies coach Chris Petersen has time to mold him into something special.

Henry Ruggs III, WR, Alabama

Vasha Hunt/Associated Press

Scout's take: "This is Tyreek Hill without off-field [issues]. This is John Ross, but good at football."

Ruggs, whom we wrote about last week, is a certified sprinter on the football field. His ability to take a short pass and get upfield in a hurry is the best in college football. It might be the best in all of football. He's still developing some parts of his game, like his timing on breaking routes, but his raw tools are shockingly good. He doesn't have the route-running skills of teammate Jerry Jeudy, but his speed on a 6'1", 190-pound frame will have offensive coaches drooling. 

The Ross reference here might raise some eyebrows. Though he struggled in 2018, Ross had 270 yards and three touchdowns through the first two weeks of this season. But he fell off last week in typical Ross fashion, losing a fumble and managing just two catches for 22 yards on six targets. That's the type of fall-off this scout is saying not to expect from Ruggs.

Isaiah Simmons, LB, Clemson

Scout's take: "His transition from safety to a real, badass linebacker has been one of the best-kept secrets on defense this season."

Simmons lined up all over the defense last year and was notably a huge part of Clemson's win over Alabama in last year's national championship game with his utility knife usage by Tigers defensive coordinator Brent Venables. The 6'4", 225-pounder has the range and speed of a safety, but he plays with the toughness and mentality of a linebacker. That will make him very valuable to the NFL when the draft rolls around in April.

Marvin Wilson, DL, Florida State

Scout's take: "There hasn't been much to say about FSU this year, but that defensive tackle is a beast."

The reigning ACC Defensive Lineman of the Week, Wilson had 10 tackles, 3.5 tackles for a loss and two sacks in the Seminoles' win over Louisville. That's one of the best performances you'll see all season and serves as the coming-out party for the talented 6'5", 311-pound junior who is shooting up draft boards. In a year without great top-tier defensive line depth, Wilson could play his way into the top 15. 

The Scout's Report

—In a report that made news on Thursday but was more so a re-reporting of old news, ESPN's Adam Schefter said once again that Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes could be in line to receive a $200 million extension from the team this offseason.

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

Many numbers will be thrown around regarding Mahomes and his potential earnings, but here's the real number: The Chiefs will pay Mahomes whatever he wants. There may be some haggling back and forth, and money may be moved around between years, but no player in NFL history has had more leverage than Mahomes has over the Chiefs.

—The 18-game season dream is dead. Finally. The Athletic's Daniel Kaplan broke the news on Thursday that the league would give up the idea of an 18-game season and instead look to make it 17 games in upcoming seasons.

This could work. If the NFL is willing to shorten the preseason, allow teams to expand active and practice squad rosters and give the players a larger cut of the profits, it wouldn't be unreasonable to see the NFLPA agree to one more regular-season game. 

—Running back Melvin Gordon is set to end his holdout by reporting to the Los Angeles Chargers on Thursday, which is good news for all involved (including fantasy owners). Gordon will lose approximately $2.2 million by holding out, and league insiders expect him to leave in free agency following the 2019 season. 

Gordon was upstaged by Austin Ekeler's strong play, and he reportedly believes this will be his last season with the Chargers. The 2020 draft class is headlined by a strong group of potential first-round running backs—including Jonathan Taylor, Travis Etienne and D'Andre Swift—which could make Gordon even more replaceable for the Chargers, as well as hurt his ability to get the money he's looking for in free agency. 

It remains to be seen if Gordon won anything through this holdout, but it's looking like he didn't.

The Big Board

Breaking away from the top overall big board this week to take a more in-depth look at what might be the deepest position in the 2019 draft class: the running backs.

1. D'Andre Swift, Georgia (junior)

2. Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin (junior)

3. Travis Etienne, Clemson (junior)

4. J.K. Dobbins, Ohio State (junior)

5. Najee Harris, Alabama (junior)

6. Cam Akers, FSU (junior)

7. Ke'Shawn Vaughn, Vanderbilt (senior)

8. Eno Benjamin, Arizona State (junior)

9. Zack Moss, Utah (senior)

10. Lamical Perine, Florida (senior)

Parting Shots

6. Game of the Week

USC faces Washington in Seattle this weekend in a game that will be an awesome test for two offensive stars: Trojans wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. and Huskies quarterback Jacob Eason.

Kyusung Gong/Associated Press

Washington doesn't have a Byron Murphy-level cornerback prospect this season, but this is still a very good defense that will present a true test for Pittman in the passing game. The same goes for Eason against a USC defense that is led by five underclassmen but is still talented, fast and opportunistic. 

If Eason puts together another day like he did against BYU, the Round 1 talk will only heat up.

5. Stock Down

The 2020 wide receiver class was expected to be legendary, and it still might be, but one key player hasn't made the waves expected from him. Michigan's Donovan Peoples-Jones has battled a foot injury all season that has slowed his progress. He's also the victim of poor quarterback play from Shea Patterson and a generally inconsistent offense. It would still be a surprise for DPJ to return to Ann Arbor after this season—he's simply too talented—but he's finding his ranking sliding down the board instead of climbing up.

4. Stock Up

Alabama has had a run at offensive tackle, with both Cam Robinson and Jonah Williams headed to the NFL from the left side of the line in the past couple of years. Now, it's Alex Leatherwood's turn.

Like Williams before him, Leatherwood started on the right side before making the move to the left. He's been excellent there in Alabama's undefeated start. And at 6'6" and 310 pounds, Leatherwood has better size than Williams did. His technique isn't quite to that level, but Leatherwood will make his debut in my Big Board Top 25 next week.

3. Sleeper of the Week

AJ Mast/Associated Press

TCU takes on Kansas this weekend in a game that won't draw many fans' eyes, but there's a Horned Frogs cornerback who is appointment viewing. Jeff Gladney (6'0", 187 lbs) has excellent size for the position and has shown the quickness in his breaks to entice scouts. He currently has a solid Round 2 grade on my board in a very deep corner class.

2. Tailgate Tour

Our Stick to Football tailgate tour was recently announced. If you get a chance to come out, these tailgates are free fan events with no ticket to the game required.

Oct. 6 — Colts at Chiefs (Kansas City, Missouri), Lot J

Oct. 12 — Oklahoma at Texas (Dallas)

Oct. 27 — Rams vs. Bengals (London)

Nov. 9 — LSU at Alabama (Tuscaloosa, Alabama)

Nov. 23 — Cal at Stanford (Palo Alto, California) 

1. Stick to Football is back in-house this week with our podcast episodes now also available on YouTube as a video series. Check out the podcast, and subscribe if you haven't already. We will also post a ton of behind-the-scenes content on our Instagram page.

Matt Miller covers the NFL and NFL draft for Bleacher Report.