2019 MLB Award Race Odds Updates with Just 1 Week to Go
With less than a week to go in the 2019 MLB season, there is still a lot to be decided, and that goes beyond the five postseason spots that are still unclaimed.
Several of the majors awards are also still up for grabs, including a tight NL MVP race and a pair of teammates battling for AL Cy Young honors.
Ahead we've taken a closer look at each major award and given odds to the leading candidates in both leagues.
Will Christian Yelich repeat as NL MVP? Will Justin Verlander be able to hold off teammate Gerrit Cole for AL Cy Young honors? Has Pete Alonso done enough to edge out Mike Soroka for NL Rookie of the Year?
We've addressed all of that and more with our updated awards race odds.
AL Manager of the Year
1 of 8
Kevin Cash, Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays always seem to be playing with one hand tied behind their back as a result of their small-market restrictions, so anytime they can contend with the free-spending teams, it's worthy of praise.
Cash has again employed the opener philosophy to get the most out of his pitching staff, and it has been a largely successful endeavor for the second straight year.
Odds: 10-1
Rocco Baldelli, Minnesota Twins
On the heels of a 78-84 season in 2018, the Twins have been in control of the AL Central standings for much of the season, and they have a chance to reach 100 wins for just the second time in franchise history.
The Twins started the season with a lot of new faces, as Nelson Cruz, Jonathan Schoop, Marwin Gonzalez, C.J. Cron and Martin Perez were all added during the offseason. Baldelli has done a great job bringing the team together while being a new face himself.
Juggling a relief corps that lacks a proven closer to rank 10th in the majors with a 4.22 bullpen ERA has been an impressive feat.
Odds: 3-1
Aaron Boone, New York Yankees
With a record 29 players spending time on the injured list at some point this season, Boone rarely had all of the Yankees weapons at his disposal.
His willingness to give guys like Gio Urshela and Mike Tauchman an extended look paid off in a big way, and he's done a solid job maneuvering an inconsistent starting rotation and a bullpen that has been without setup man Dellin Betances.
In his second season with the team, Boone has seemingly gotten the entire roster to buy into what he's doing, and that goes a long way.
Odds: 1-1
NL Manager of the Year
2 of 8
Davey Martinez, Washington Nationals
Washington was 19-31 in the middle of May, and it could wind up hosting the NL Wild Card Game.
The Nationals have endured some heartbreaking disappointment in recent years, and it would have been easy for them to just roll over after that shaky start, so Martinez deserves credit for keeping a steady hand on the wheel.
Odds: 6-1
Craig Counsel, Milwaukee Brewers
With a shaky starting rotation and a bullpen that took a significant step backward after a dominant 2018 season, the Brewers could have just as easily been battling for third place in the NL Central as opposed to contending for a division title.
A 12-14 month of August looked like the beginning of the end, but they've gone 17-4 since Sept. 1 to move comfortably into a wild-card spot. Counsel deserves credit for squeezing the most out of a roster that is not as talented on paper as some teams that are now looking up at the Brewers in the standings.
Odds: 5-2
Mike Shildt, St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals were a .500 team at the All-Star break.
Since then, they've gone 45-23 with a plus-100 run differential to storm into the NL Central lead, clinching a playoff berth for the first time in four years with a four-game sweep of the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field.
Shildt has done an excellent job juggling what has at times been an inconsistent pitching staff, and his patience with some of the underperforming veterans on offense has paid dividends down the stretch.
Odds: 2-1
AL Rookie of the Year
3 of 8
Eloy Jimenez, Chicago White Sox
Jimenez leads all AL rookies with 30 home runs, and that might be enough to earn him a top-three spot in the voting.
That said, his .318 on-base percentage and poor outfield defense (-10 DRS, -7.1 UZR/150) will likely keep him from being a serious contender to take home the hardware.
Odds: 25-1
Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays thought highly enough of Lowe to give him a six-year, $24 million extension prior to the season, after he played just 34 games in 2018.
The 25-year-old has been a steady contributor for the contending Rays, hitting .277/.341/.521 with 17 doubles, 16 home runs and 49 RBI in 77 games. That offensive production and his defense at second base have been worth 3.0 WAR.
Odds: 5-1
Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros
After slugging 23 home runs in 56 games at Triple-A to start the year, Alvarez made his MLB debut on June 9 and immediately gave the already stacked Astros lineup another weapon.
He homered seven times in his first 12 games, and the 22-year-old has continued to rake while staking claim to the everyday DH job.
All told, he's hitting .326/.422/.681 with 25 doubles, 27 home runs and 77 RBI in 82 games, good for a 189 OPS+ and 3.9 WAR, despite seeing just 66 innings of defensive action.
Odds: 1-4
.png?w=256)
NL Rookie of the Year
4 of 8
Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres
There appears to be a clear-cut top three in the NL Rookie of the Year balloting, with Chris Paddack, Bryan Reynolds, Alex Verdugo, Victor Robles, Kevin Newman, Zac Gallen, Keston Hiura and Mike Yastrzemski all on the outside looking in.
If not for a season-ending back injury, Tatis would undoubtedly have been in the mix to take home the hardware.
The 20-year-old played just 84 games but hit .317/.379/.590 for a 152 OPS+ with 22 home runs and 16 steals en route to 4.2 WAR before his season ended. Aside from his impact at the plate, he was also a stellar defender at the shortstop position.
Odds: 25-1
Mike Soroka, Atlanta Braves
Soroka not only leads all rookie pitchers in ERA (2.60), but he ranks in the top five in the majors in that category and appears destined for a top-10 finish in NL Cy Young voting.
His emergence as a reliable part of the Atlanta rotation alongside veterans Julio Teheran, Dallas Keuchel, Mike Foltynewicz and young left-hander Max Fried has played a major role in Atlanta running away with the NL East title.
While he has fanned batters at a modest 7.2 K/9 rate, he's done a terrific job limiting damage with just 2.1 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9 and a solid 3.44 FIP.
Odds: 4-1
Pete Alonso, New York Mets
Alonso is the first NL rookie in history and just the second rookie ever to reach 50 home runs, batting .264/.364/.588 with 30 doubles, 115 RBI and 98 runs scored to go along with the long balls.
His 20 home runs since the All-Star break are tied for fourth in the NL, helping keep the Mets afloat in the NL wild-card race.
Will his record-breaking performance and 5.2 WAR be enough to offset the significant impact that Soroka has made for a contending team?
Odds: 1-3
AL Cy Young Award
5 of 8
Charlie Morton, Tampa Bay Rays
The cost-conscious Rays spent beyond their normal comfort zone to sign Morton to a two-year, $30 million deal during the offseason.
The 35-year-old has already thrown a career-high 188.2 innings while ranking among the AL leaders in ERA (3.15, third), WHIP (1.10, fifth), strikeouts (231, sixth) and opponents' batting average (.219, fifth) in his first season in Tampa Bay.
With Tyler Glasnow missing time to injury and Blake Snell regressing from his Cy Young form, Morton has been integral to the team's success.
Odds: 20-1
Shane Bieber, Cleveland Indians
After a solid rookie season filling the No. 5 spot in the Cleveland rotation, Bieber has emerged as the best starter on the Indians staff this year.
He's among the AL leaders in ERA (3.23, fourth), WHIP (1.03, third) and strikeouts (252, third), and his 39 walks in 208.2 innings give him an AL-leading 1.7 BB/9 rate to go along with his impressive swing-and-miss stuff.
Still just 24 years old, Bieber has kept the Indians staff afloat with Corey Kluber, Mike Clevinger and Carlos Carrasco all missing time and Trevor Bauer traded to Cincinnati.
Odds: 20-1
Gerrit Cole, Houston Astros
In almost any other year, Cole would be a shoo-in for Cy Young honors.
The free-agent-to-be leads the majors with 302 strikeouts on the strength of 19 double-digit strikeout games, and he ranks second in the AL in ERA (2.61), WHIP (0.91) and opponents' batting average (.189).
Unfortunately for him, his teammate Justin Verlander is the AL leader in all three of those categories and looks like the front-runner entering the season's final week.
Odds: 3-2
Justin Verlander, Houston Astros
As mentioned, Verlander paces the AL in ERA (2.53), WHIP (0.81) and opponents' batting average (.172), and he's not far behind his teammate in strikeouts with 288.
His 217 innings lead the majors, and he turned in one of the individual highlights of the season when he tossed his third career no-hitter against the Toronto Blue Jays on Sept. 1.
With the AL West title already locked up, the Astros could take it easy with their top starters during the final week of the season, though they still have plenty to play for with the best record in the AL still up for grabs.
Odds: 1-1
NL Cy Young Award
6 of 8
Jack Flaherty, St. Louis Cardinals
While Stephen Strasburg, Mike Soroka, Sonny Gray and Kirby Yates will all feature prominently on NL Cy Young ballots, Flaherty has the best chance of crashing the party and sneaking into the top three in the voting.
The 23-year-old leads the majors with a 1.05 ERA in 13 starts since the All-Star break, and he's emerged as the ace of a red-hot Cardinals team that has stormed into the NL Central lead.
Even with a middling first-half performance, Flaherty still ranks among the NL leaders in ERA (2.96, sixth), WHIP (1.01, second), strikeouts (214, ninth) and opponents' batting average (.200, third). His importance to the Cardinals' resurgence could score him some him some bonus points.
Odds: 12-1
Hyun-Jin Ryu, Los Angeles Dodgers
Ryu looked like the NL Cy Young favorite in the middle of August, sporting a pristine 1.45 ERA and 0.93 WHIP through his first 22 starts.
However, he failed to complete six innings in his next four starts, allowing 31 hits and 21 earned runs in 19 innings, causing his ERA to climb by about a full run to 2.41.
He has righted the ship to go seven innings in each of his last two starts and still leads the NL in ERA, but that hiccup has seemingly dropped him to the No. 3 spot in the race.
Odds: 8-1
Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals
A shoulder injury limited Scherzer to just four total starts in July and August, so his counting numbers are a bit behind those of some of the other leading NL candidates.
However, his 2.81 ERA and 1.03 WHIP both rank in the top five among qualified NL hurlers, and his 233 strikeouts in 166.1 innings give him a career-high 12.6 K/9 mark that leads the NL.
A three-time Cy Young winner and last year's runner-up, Scherzer finds himself in a similar position to Chris Sale a year ago when he had a strong case to win the award before missing time during the second half.
Odds: 2-1
Jacob deGrom, New York Mets
If Flaherty is the best pitcher in baseball since the All-Star break, deGrom is not far behind.
The reigning Cy Young winner has a 1.55 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in 13 second-half starts, and he leads the NL in strikeouts (248) and WHIP (0.99) while sitting second in the NL in ERA (2.51).
The 31-year-old has tossed seven innings in 11 of his last 12 starts, and he'll take the ball next on Wednesday against the lowly Miami Marlins to further his case for repeat Cy Young honors.
Odds: 3-2
AL MVP
7 of 8
Nelson Cruz, Minnesota Twins
At 39 years old, Cruz is still one of the most feared sluggers in baseball.
The Twins have been an offensive juggernaut all season, and he leads the team in home runs (40) and RBI (105). He's hitting .303/.387/.631 for a 1.018 OPS that trails only Mike Trout's (1.083) among qualified AL hitters.
Cruz has never finished higher than sixth in MVP voting. That could change this year.
Odds: 50-1
Marcus Semien, Oakland Athletics
If there were an award for most underrated player in baseball, Semien would be the front-runner.
The 29-year-old sports a 139 OPS+ with 42 doubles, 32 home runs and 120 runs in what has been a breakout season at the plate. He's also been an above-average defender at shortstop with 2 DRS and a 4.9 UZR/150.
All that has been worth 7.9 WAR, which trails only Trout's (8.3) among all AL players.
Odds: 50-1
DJ LeMahieu, New York Yankees
During a season in which the Yankees have faced a record-setting number of injuries, LeMahieu has been the one constant.
Signed to a two-year, $24 million deal during the offseason, the 2016 NL batting title winner has hit .329/.377/.523 while setting career highs in OPS+ (137), home runs (26), RBI (99) and runs (108).
A three-time Gold Glove winner at second base, he has seamlessly adjusted to a super-utility role, splitting his time between second base (73 games), third base (50 games) and first base (38 games) while racking up 6.1 WAR.
Odds: 9-1
Alex Bregman, Houston Astros
Bregman finished fifth in AL MVP voting last year, and he's been even better this season while solidifying his place as one of the game's rising superstars.
His OPS+ (160), home runs (39), RBI (108) and runs (117) all represent improvements over last year's numbers, as do his MLB-leading 112 walks and his 7.8 WAR.
The 25-year-old has walked at a 16.9 percent clip while striking out just 12.2 percent of the time, and his .419 on-base percentage trails only Trout's (.438) and Christian Yelich's (.429) among all qualified hitters.
Odds: 9-1
Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels
Despite wrapping up his season Sept. 7 to undergo foot surgery, Trout still looks like the clear front-runner for what would be his third AL MVP Award.
He still leads the AL with 45 home runs, a .645 slugging percentage, a 1.083 OPS and 8.3 WAR while also pacing the majors in on-base percentage (.438) and OPS+ (184).
At 28 years old, he remains the game's premier player, and it's a travesty he will once again be watching from home when the postseason begins. Voters tend to skew toward players from playoff-bound teams, but expect Trout to again be the exception.
Odds: 1-3
NL MVP
8 of 8
Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks
One of the breakout stars of 2019, Marte used a strong finish to 2018 as a jumping off point for a huge offensive season.
He was shut down for the season Friday after suffering a stress reaction in his lower back, so he'll finish the year with a .329/.389/.592 line for a 148 OPS+. He racked up 36 doubles and 32 home runs and still has an NL-leading 187 hits.
The 25-year-old put up those stellar numbers while splitting his time between second base and center field and tallying 6.8 WAR. His production since the All-Star break is a big reason the Diamondbacks clawed back into the wild-card race.
Odds: 50-1
Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves
While Ronald Acuna Jr. has had the flashier year in his quest for a 40-40 season, Freeman is the team's top MVP candidate.
He's hitting .296/.391/.555 with 34 doubles, 38 home runs and an MLB-leading 121 RBI, and his .946 OPS ranks eighth in the NL and is well ahead of the aforementioned Acuna's (.884).
The 30-year-old finished fourth in MVP voting a year ago, and he has finished in the top 10 three times in his career.
Odds: 25-1
Anthony Rendon, Washington Nationals
With free agency looming, Rendon has turned in the best season of his career.
He's hitting .325/.410/.609 with 43 doubles, 34 home runs, 120 RBI and 114 runs, and his 6.4 WAR trails only those of Cody Bellinger (8.6), Jacob deGrom (7.4), Christian Yelich (7.1) and Marte (6.8).
The Nationals have not missed a beat following the highly publicized departure of Bryce Harper during the offseason, and Rendon has been a big reason why. His 1.020 OPS is behind only Yelich's (1.100) and Bellinger's (1.032) among qualified NL hitters.
Odds: 10-1
Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers
Yelich's season abruptly ended when he suffered a fractured kneecap Sept. 10.
The reigning MVP leads the NL with a .329 batting average while also pacing the Senior Circuit in on-base percentage (.429), and OPS+ (179). He leads MLB in slugging (.671) and OPS (1.100) and posted 7.1 WAR.
Aside from those impressive numbers, the 27-year-old also set career highs in home runs (44) and steals (30) while helping to keep the Brewers afloat in the playoff race despite their inconsistent pitching staff.
Odds: 3-1
Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers
After a record-setting rookie season in 2017, when he posted a 143 OPS+ with 39 home runs, Bellinger's production dipped last season to a 120 OPS+ and 25 home runs.
The 24-year-old has bounced back in a big way, hitting .302/.404/.628 with 46 home runs, 114 RBI and 118 runs to lead the offensive attack of a team that ran away with yet another NL West title.
On top of his huge offensive numbers, he's also been a standout defender at first base (226.0 innings, 4 DRS), center field (141.2, 1) and right field (911.1, 19). His 8.6 WAR leads all of baseball, and he's been the best player on the best team in the NL.
Odds: 2-3
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
.png?w=480)
