Matt Chapman Is MLB's Ignored Future $250 Million Superstar

What do Nolan Arenado and Matt Chapman have in common?

For starters, they're alumni from the same infield at El Toro High School and have both since matured into outstanding major league third basemen. The key differences are that Arenado's star shines brighter and, oh yeah, he's about $260 million richer.

But just wait. In a few years' time, those differences should gradually become commonalities.

Things have already changed for Chapman since B/R praised him last August as the biggest Major League Baseball star nobody knew about. Following his second season with the Oakland Athletics in 2018, he earned his first Gold Glove and the Platinum Glove as the American League's finest defender.

The 26-year-old's fame is escalating even further in 2019. He was under the bright lights just a few weeks ago as a first-time participant in both the Home Run Derby and the All-Star Game.

The fly in the proverbial ointment is that Chapman didn't get his ticket to Cleveland from the fans. Heck, he didn't even make it to the final round of voting for the AL's starting third base gig. Alex Bregman won that handily, leaving Chapman to make the roster as a reserve.

As far as travesties go, baseball fans wanting to see Bregman—who has talent and charisma in spades—over Chapman is minor. But in retrospect, it's worthy of a good ol' fashioned finger-wagging.

Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

According to Baseball Reference's wins above replacement, the only American Leaguer having a better season than Chapman in 2019 is some MVP-sounding dude named Mike Trout:

• 1. Mike Trout: 6.7 WAR
• 2. Matt Chapman: 5.1 WAR

Chapman's status as a god of WAR isn't just a one-year thing. Go back to 2017, and he slots in behind only Trout and some other MVP-sounding dude named Mookie Betts:

• 1. Mike Trout: 23.4 WAR
• 2. Mookie Betts: 21.7 WAR
• 3. Matt Chapman: 16.8 WAR

Even Arenado—who's probably on his way to a fifth straight season with an All-Star nod, a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger—didn't start as strong through his first three seasons with the Colorado Rockies as Chapman has with the A's. And this time last year, he couldn't help but to concede to his former high school teammate:

If nothing else, Chapman has already surpassed Arenado with his glovework at the hot corner.

Chapman's 61 defensive runs saved since 2017 are tops among third basemen by a healthy 29 over Arenado. To boot, they also tie him with defensive-whiz shortstop Andrelton Simmons for second among all defenders.

Yet perhaps more so than any other defender in baseball today, it seems pointless to illustrate Chapman's defensive prowess with numbers. They just don't underscore his wide range, soft hands and downright unparalleled arm strength as well as the video:

So far in 2019, Chapman is doing his usual thing to the tune of a third-base-best 13 defensive runs saved.

Never mind just Arenado. At this rate, Chapman might as well be looped into the same defensive conversation as Brooks Robinson and Adrian Beltre.

Then again, this is where Chapman isn't so much defying expectations as he is living up to them. He was always built up as a practitioner of magic as he was coming up through Oakland's farm system. The big question was how much he would hit once he reached The Show.

To wit, the book on him for Baseball America (subscription required) going into the 2017 season noted "he'll strike out a lot and is a below-average hitter."

Yet Chapman was an above-average hitter right away with a .785 OPS and 14 home runs in his first 84 games with the A's. He then got better with an .864 OPS and 24 homers in 2018, and he's now up to an .882 OPS and 23 homers in 2019.

Chapman demonstrated an ability to draw walks from the get-go, but it's taken until this year for him to finally get his strikeout rate below the MLB average. As he told Ben Ross of NBC Sports California, the difference is all in his discipline.

"For me, it really is pitch selection and making sure I'm hunting the pitches I'm looking for. I used to let a certain pitch get me off of my plan or let the situation or count change my approach. I would try to do too much. I feel like I've gotten better at being more disciplined to stay in my zone and use my strengths."

Chapman's enhanced discipline can be traced to an increasing rate of swings at pitches in the "heart" of the strike zone. He also doesn't chase off-speed and breaking junk like he did as a rookie in 2017:

Image courtesy of BaseballSavant.MLB.com

While speaking with Ross, A's manager Bob Melvin pointed to something even more specific as a reason for Chapman's ongoing offensive surge: "He knows where that outside corner is now."

He does indeed. Over the last three years, the right-handed swinger's slugging percentage against pitches on and beyond the outside edge of the zone has gone from .314 to .353 to .471.

As Chapman's spray chart against those pitches demonstrates, that improvement is the driving force behind still another improvement he's made in 2019. He entered this season with two career home runs to the opposite field. He now has 10, including his Make-A-Wish shot from Saturday:

Ultimately, there isn't much that Chapman can't do right now. He gives the A's a sturdy linchpin at the center of their quest for a second straight postseason.

The elephant in the room (no, not that one) concerns just how long the A's can keep Chapman. They've enjoyed him for the league minimum through his first three seasons. But starting in 2021, he'll become a multimillionaire many times over in three trips through arbitration.

Barring a massive influx of cash—perhaps by way of an oft-dreamed-about yet elusive new stadium—the A's may have to give Chapman the Josh Donaldson treatment and trade him before he weighs too heavily on their books.

Such an event could be beneficial to Chapman. Were he to land with a deeper-pocketed team, he would have a much better shot at signing a big-money extension in the mold of Arenado's $260 million contract. If not, perhaps the upcoming collective bargaining storm will make it easier for him to attain such a deal in free agency after 2023.

In the meantime, all Chapman has to do is keep shining in the field and in the batter's box. The more he does that, the more he'll pave his path to a proper payday.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.