MLB Teams at Serious Risk of Blowing the 2019 Trade Deadline
The MLB trade deadline is a critical time of year for contenders and non-contenders alike.
However, for some teams, it is of paramount importance that they get it right before the trade window slams shut at 4 p.m. ET on Wednesday.
Whether it's a contender with a glaring hole that has to be addressed, a non-contender that needs to make the most of its current trade chips or a team on the fence that needs to make the right decision on what direction to go, the deadline can be crucial for a variety of reasons.
Ahead, we've highlighted five teams that run a serious risk of blowing this year's trade deadline.
Los Angeles Dodgers
1 of 5
The Los Angeles Dodgers have the best record in the National League and a commanding 14.5-game lead in the NL West standings. Yet there's still an air of desperation surrounding this team.
After coming up short in back-to-back trips to the World Series, it's championship or bust as they search for their first title since 1988, and there's work to do at the deadline if they're going to make that happen.
The one glaring weakness has been the bullpen.
At a quick glance, it may seem like the relief corps has been a strength, thanks to a 4.02 ERA that ranks ninth in the majors.
However, they are tied for second in blown saves (19) and rank 21st in save percentage (59.6).
Even closer Kenley Jansen has not been his usual dominant self with a 3.63 ERA that would represent the highest mark of his career by a wide margin.
Despite being linked to many of the trade market's top bullpen arms last summer, they settled instead for the following moves:
- July 4: Dylan Floro acquired in a trade with CIN.
- July 11: Zac Rosscup claimed off waivers from COL.
- July 31: John Axford acquired in a trade with TOR.
- Aug. 31: Ryan Madson acquired in a trade with WAS.
They can't expect a similar approach to work this time around. If the deadline comes and goes without significant additions made to the bullpen, it will be a huge missed opportunity for the Dodgers.
Shane Greene, Ken Giles, Mychal Givens and Jake Diekman are among the top available relief arms, assuming Felipe Vazquez, Will Smith and Kirby Yates are all staying put.
Milwaukee Brewers
2 of 5
The Milwaukee Brewers have to do something of significance to address their pitching staff if they have any hope of rising to the top in a wide-open NL Central race.
The starting rotation has been a major weakness all season with a 4.80 ERA (20th in MLB) and only 25 quality starts (29th in MLB), and things went from bad to worse when budding ace Brandon Woodruff was lost for six weeks to a strained oblique.
While a dominant relief corps propped up a middling rotation last year during the team's run to the NLCS, the bullpen has not been as effective aside from closer Josh Hader.
Unless the team adds a frontline starter or a couple of late-inning relief arms, it's hard to see it having the pitching to be considered a serious contender.
The issue there is a farm system that is thin on high-level talent, especially since Keston Hiura will almost certainly be off limits in all trade talks.
Will a package built around someone like infielder Mauricio Dubon or left-hander Aaron Ashby really be enough to get a major deal done?
If not, the front office will have to get creative in its quest to stabilize the pitching staff.
That's what the Brewers did last year with the low-cost addition of Gio Gonzalez. He ended up posting a 2.13 ERA in five starts down the stretch before filling a spot in the playoff rotation.
Minnesota Twins
3 of 5
The Minnesota Twins have watched their lead over the Cleveland Indians in the AL Central standings shrink from as many as 11 games in the middle of June to just two games entering play on Thursday.
With an offense that is averaging 5.7 runs per game and has slugged an MLB-leading 194 home runs, it's clear that pitching will be the focal point of the trade deadline.
A case can be made for adding another starter to the mix, but bolstering the bullpen should be the No. 1 priority.
Aside from left-hander Taylor Rogers, who has 15 saves with a 2.27 ERA and a 59-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 47.2 innings, the bullpen is lacking in late-inning arms.
Tyler Duffey, Ryne Harper and Trevor May have been hit-or-miss in the late innings, and all three are better served as middle relievers on a contending team.
Finding a proven closer would allow Rogers to return to a setup role and improve the bullpen across the board by pushing everyone back a notch.
A packaged deal for Toronto Blue Jays relievers Ken Giles and Daniel Hudson makes too much sense.
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New York Mets
4 of 5
If only general managers could get a mulligan on their first year running an MLB team.
Brodie Van Wagenen stepped into the New York Mets front office and immediately declared the team a contender, swinging a blockbuster deal to acquire Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz while also handing out multiyear deals to Wilson Ramos, Jed Lowrie and Jeurys Familia in free agency.
Whoops.
Those five guys have been worth a combined negative-0.2 WAR on the year, and the Mets are a sub-.500 team that has already waved the white flag. The emergence of Jarred Kelenic—the prospect centerpiece in the Cano/Diaz blockbuster—as one of the top prospects in baseball is just salt in the wounds.
So what now?
Todd Frazier looks like a prime candidate to be moved, and the same was true of fellow rental Zack Wheeler before a shoulder impingement landed him on the injured list. He'll return to the mound Friday in what will be his lone opportunity to prove he's healthy before the trade deadline.
The team is also "seriously listening" to offers for starter Noah Syndergaard, according to Buster Olney of ESPN.
After falling flat in their pursuit of contention, the Mets have to successfully pivot this summer for the sake of the club's long-term outlook. If they fail to maximize their trade chips, it will only further stymie the organization.
San Francisco Giants
5 of 5
Things looked so simple for the San Francisco Giants at the beginning of the month.
They wrapped up June with a 36-47 record and had nine teams standing between them and the second NL wild-card spot. They were poised to be one of the market's most aggressive sellers.
Then they caught fire.
After taking two of three from the Chicago Cubs to begin the week, the Giants have now won six straight series en route to a 16-4 record and a plus-46 run differential in July. They're not going to chase down the Dodgers in the NL West standings, but they're now just three games back in the wild-card standings.
That leaves the front office with a tough decision to make.
Madison Bumgarner and Will Smith are both headed for free agency during the offseason, and both would bring back a significant prospect haul in a seller's market. Relievers Sam Dyson and Tony Watson also have significant value with team control beyond this season, while Pablo Sandoval would be a welcome addition to any contender's bench thanks to his MLB-leading 14 pinch hits.
It's hard to justify blowing things up when they've climbed back into contention, but they will have missed out on a golden opportunity to improve their long-term outlook if they crash back to earth in August.
Flipping a reliever or two while holding onto Bumgarner might be the best of both worlds. There's plenty of quality bullpen depth in the upper levels of the minors, including Sam Selman (33 G, 1.17 ERA, 15.1 K/9), Fernando Abad (35 G, 2.76 ERA, 10.0 K/9) and Melvin Adon (35 G, 2.66 ERA, 11.7 K/9), so trading from an area of strength would not halt their playoff push.
Regardless, the Giants' approach at the deadline will have a widespread impact on the trade market as a whole, and it will alter the present and future of the club.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted.
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