5 Potential 2019 MLB Trade Deadline Busts to Run Away from
Making moves at the MLB trade deadline is always a risk for teams, and after last year's Chris Archer trade, no one wants to make a move like the Pittsburgh Pirates did.
The Pirates gave up quite a lot to acquire Archer, a two-time All-Star, trading away three promising prospects in Austin Meadows, Tyler Glasnow and Shane Baz.
The move has blown up in their face. Archer has posted a 5.36 ERA in 90.2 innings of work this season. Meanwhile in Tampa Bay, the 24-year-old Meadows has posted a batting average near .300 with 15 home runs, and Glasnow shut down opponents with a 1.86 ERA in eight starts before suffering a forearm injury that's kept him out since May.
Baz is a 19-year-old still working his way up the Tampa Bay farm system, but it's become clear that the Rays got a huge haul for a pitcher who simply isn't the same player he once was.
Front offices around the league have no desire to be the Pittsburgh of 2019. The following players have enough bust potential to avoid.
All stats are up to date through Monday's slate of games.
Dee Gordon
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Given his speed and production at the plate in previous seasons, Dee Gordon will be an enticing option to a few teams needing another threat on the basepaths.
If those teams are smart, they should look elsewhere for speed.
Gordon won't be an unrestricted free agent until 2022 and is scheduled to earn $41.1 million over the next three seasons. That's quite the price tag for a player who hasn't done a whole lot at the plate this year, posting a slash line of just .278/.304/.365.
To make matters worse, his defensive abilities continue to regress, which makes him an even bigger liability to potential suitors. At second base, he has recorded an ultimate zone rating (UZR) of minus-3.8, already the worst mark of his career.
It's understandable why a team would want a player with 324 career stolen bases. However, trading away prospects for a 31-year-old with a hefty contract, little power and significant defensive regression doesn't make much sense, especially when other players with speed will likely be on the trade block with a much lower price tag.
Charlie Blackmon
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Charlie Blackmon is having an impressive season for the Colorado Rockies. At 33 years old, he's hitting well over .300 with 21 home runs and 60 runs batted in.
While those numbers may have a lot of teams calling the Rockies to see if they'd be willing to part with the veteran outfielder, the risk may outweigh the reward.
Like all Rockies hitters, Blackmon's numbers are inflated because he plays half of his games at Coors Field, a notoriously hitter friendly ballpark due to the altitude. The Rockies slugger is hitting just .237 with a .657 OPS away from Coors Field, compared to a .415 average and 1.318 OPS at home.
It's worth mentioning that Blackmon's hard-hit rate of 40 percent is the highest of his career, but regression is bound to happen as he continues to get up there in age.
That regression could be costly for any team that picks him up because Blackmon's contract is locked up through at least 2021, with player options in 2022 and 2023. He could make an additional $73.1 million over the next handful of seasons, even if his bat finally starts to cool off.
A financial commitment of that magnitude could hinder some of the more cash-strapped playoff contenders from signing bigger names over the next few years. The temptation to add another power hitter to the lineup can be alluring, but it's not worth giving up future assets for a player likely to regress.
Mike Minor
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What Mike Minor has been doing at 31 years old this season is hard to ignore. The Texas Rangers pitcher is second in the American League with a 2.86 ERA despite playing home contests in one of the more hitter friendly ballparks in baseball.
Simply put, it's been a career year for the left-handed pitcher, and his trade value has never been higher.
To trade for Minor, a team would likely have to give up significant future assets for what could be a rather short stint. His contract will be up after the 2020 season. He's affordable—he'll make only $9.5 million next year—but teams have to decide if 1.5 years of Minor is worth multiple prospects.
Minor's lack of consistency makes him risky. This is the first season as a starter that Minor has posted an ERA under 3.00, and it's just his second with an ERA under 4.00 (Minor posted a 2.55 ERA as a relief pitcher with the Royals in 2017).
Advanced statistics also reveal that Minor's ERA may not tell the whole story. Despite ranking eighth in the majors in ERA, Minor is 39th in SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA), behind Yu Darvish and Jon Gray, among others.
If a team gives up a lot for Minor and he regresses to the 2018 version of himself, it would be a big blow.
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Nicholas Castellanos
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The trade value for Nicholas Castellanos has never been higher than it is right now. The 27-year-old outfielder has been seeing the ball quite well heading into the trade deadline, posting a .319 average and a .921 OPS in July.
Detroit is likely to listen to a number of offers for the outfielder, and his departure looks even more likely after Castellanos bashed the Tigers' home stadium, calling Comerica Park "a joke."
Castellanos has strung together a few respectable seasons with the Tigers, but teams looking to have him be an everyday starter on a playoff contender might be disappointed in some of his shortcomings, especially on defense.
Since coming into the league in 2013, he has never posted a season with a positive defensive WAR. His UZR as an outfielder over the span is a disturbingly poor minus-25.1.
That's not to say Castellanos isn't capable of handling himself in the batter's box, but an above-average bat may not be worth the defensive liability he is in the outfield.
Madison Bumgarner
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It may come as a surprise to see San Francisco legend Madison Bumgarner, arguably one of the hottest names at the trade deadline, on this list. But there are warning signs that may give some GMs pause when considering trading for the 2014 World Series MVP.
Traditional stats still show the 29-year-old still has something left in the tank. He has posted a respectable 3.65 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with 127 strikeouts in 125.2 innings.
However, advanced stats show some signs of concern about Bumgarner's sustainability at his age. Opposing batters have a hard-hit rate of 46.6 percent, far and away the worst rate of his career, with last season's 41.6 percent rate being the second-worst.
This is especially concerning when you consider he plays his home games in the most pitcher friendly ballpark in the majors, per ESPN.com. When playing home games elsewhere, those hard-hit balls will result in home runs more frequently.
Bumgarner's $12 million salary won't be an issue for most teams, but the Giants' asking price may be far too high, especially now that they are in the wild-card race. As one rival exec told MLB Network's Jon Heyman on Tuesday, "No way they can sell, they're on fire." To deal Bumgarner and essentially signal that they are giving up on this season, the Giants will likely want a massive return package.
Even if the return package is reasonable, a Bumgarner trade could backfire if opposing bats continue to get good wood on him as the regular season winds down and the playoff race heats up.
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