2019 World Series Odds for Every MLB Team at the All-Star Break
As we head into the All-Star break, it's as good a time as any to update the World Series odds for all 30 MLB teams.
The calculus will shift after the July 31 trade deadline. But based on current standings and roster construction, here is every club's chance of winning the 2019 Fall Classic.
Odds are generated by Bleacher Report.
The 101-1 and Under Club
No team is technically out of contention in July. But these clubs face long, long odds of sniffing the postseason, let alone winning it all.
Call them the "so you're telling me there's a chance" contingent:
- Baltimore Orioles
- Chicago White Sox
- Cincinnati Reds
- Detroit Tigers
- Kansas City Royals
- Los Angeles Angels
- Miami Marlins
- New York Mets
- San Francisco Giants
- Seattle Mariners
- Toronto Blue Jays
The Fringe Underdogs
The following teams are highly unlikely to hoist the Commissioner's Trophy in 2019 but can't be discounted entirely:
The Diamondbacks are in second place in the National League West at 46-45. They could be sellers at the deadline. If they opt to buy or stay put, they have an outside chance at a wild-card slot.
At 44-45, the Colorado Rockies could enter the playoff picture if they improve a pitching staff that ranks last in the NL with a 5.16 ERA. Considering they're stuck in fourth place, however, a third consecutive wild-card berth is a long shot.
The Pirates are in fourth place in the NL Central at 44-45. Yet, they're only 2.5 games out of first place in baseball's most tightly contested division. Odds are the Bucs will sell or make modest additions at the deadline, but they're within striking distance.
San Diego Padres
The Padres sit in third place in the NL West at 45-45. It would take a major trade-deadline addition and an unexpected surge for them to snag a wild-card spot (catching the Los Angeles Dodgers is out of the question). But with an offense fronted by Manny Machado and emerging star Fernando Tatis Jr., they can't be dismissed entirely.
The Dark Horses
These squads face uphill battles on the path to October glory, but could be sneaky contenders:
The Athletics were dealt a significant blow when rising right-hander Frankie Montas was slapped with an 80-game suspension under MLB's performance-enhancing drug policy. Still, Oakland is 50-41 and on the edge of the AL wild-card shuffle. After they won 97 games last season, it's not impossible to imagine the A's returning to the playoffs. And then, who knows?
At 47-43, the Phillies are in third place in the NL East. Their .749 OPS is "good" for 18th and their 4.64 ERA checks in at No. 19. Bryce Harper, their expensive offseason acquisition, is hitting .253 and will miss the All-Star Game in Cleveland. That said, the Phils have enough talent to make a postseason push. If they get there, particularly with deadline additions, they have a puncher's chance.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals entered the All-Star break at 44-44. Exactly mediocre, but also only two games out in the NL Central. They could buttress a starting rotation that ranks 13th with a 4.33 ERA, and they need to fortify an offense that's 23rd with a .720 OPS. Still, they're not out of it.
The Rangers sit in third place in the American League West at 48-42 and rank sixth in the Junior Circuit with a .773 OPS. Their pitching is less impressive with a collective 4.82 ERA, but Texas has shown the potential to contend behind talent such as ascendant outfielder Joey Gallo and resurgent veteran Hunter Pence.
After a rough start, the Washington Nationals are 47-42 and in second place in the NL East. It could be worse. It could also be better, especially in a bullpen that's dead last with an ugly 6.08 ERA. The Nats have ample talent, including ace Max Scherzer and third baseman Anthony Rendon, but must acquire an impact reliever or two to make a run.
Boston Red Sox
The defending champions are in third place in the American League East at 49-41 and their pitching staff owns a ho-hum 4.59 ERA. On the other hand, they're tied for the AL lead with 509 run scored. Repeating is hard, but Boston could do it with some midseason pitching reinforcements.
The Indians have managed to hang around in the weak AL Central and reeled off a six-game winning streak before the All-Star break. Then again, their modest plus-27 run differential pales in comparison to the division-leading Minnesota Twins' plus-116. A wild-card berth is within reach, but the Tribe need to improve an offense that ranks 20th with a .739 OPS.
The Brewers marched to Game 7 of the National League Championship Series in 2018 and are only a half-game out in the NL Central at 47-44. They employ reigning NL MVP Christian Yelich, who enters the break with an MLB-pacing 31 home runs. Yet, Milwaukee ranks 18th with a 4.61 ERA and, more troublingly, has a minus-17 run differential. As constructed, the Brewers are a long distance from World Series favorites.
Any one of these teams could win the whole thing. It'd be mildly surprising, but stranger things regularly happen:
The Cubs' 47-43 record doesn't inspire confidence. Sure, they're in first place in the NL Central, but only 4.5 games separate them from the last-place Reds. On the other hand, Chicago ranks third in the NL with a plus-55 run differential. The Cubs' division lead might not be as tenuous as it seems, and they retain a solid core that won a title in 2016.
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays won 90 games last season and sit in second place in the AL East at 52-39. They'd be the No. 1 AL wild-card squad if the season ended now. They're perennial small-market underdogs and can't make seismic additions because of budgetary constraints. Plus, they need to hang onto their MiLB chips. Clearly, however, they've established a winning formula.
After winning the NL East in 2018, the Atlanta Braves are again in the driver's seat with a first-place position and 54-37 record. Their offense leads the NL with 491 runs scored. Yet, despite the acquisition of free-agent lefty Dallas Keuchel, their starting pitching ranks 17th with a 4.56 ERA. They're a safe bet to win the division, but a World Series run may be just beyond their grasp.
With a 56-33 record and AL-leading plus-116 run differential, the Minnesota Twins are the clear favorites in the AL Central. They could upgrade a bullpen that ranks 12th with a 4.30 ERA and add a playoff-tested ace. Overall, the Twinkies are a legit contender and belong on the game's brightest stage.
Now we arrive at the three clubs most likely to bathe in champagne and confetti when all is said and done. Keep in mind, though, that there's a long way to go:
At 57-33, the Astros are running away with the AL West. They rank second in the AL in ERA (3.86) and OPS (.816). They're a pretty darn complete team. A few deadline additions wouldn't hurt, but it's difficult to picture the Astros not playing deep into the postseason.
New York Yankees
The Yankees have been hit by a raft of injuries this season, including to key players such as ace Luis Severino and slugger Giancarlo Stanton, both of whom remain on the shelf. Yet, New York is in first place in the AL East at 57-31 and has a plus-113 run differential. The return of slugger Aaron Judge from the injured list and the rebirth of catcher Gary Sanchez should propel the offense. Surely the Yanks will add an arm or two. If so, they're on the road to title No. 28.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers haven't won a World Series since 1988. They lost the Fall Classic in 2017 and 2018. You can bet that left a bad taste in their mouth. At the break, they lead the NL in OPS (.808) and ERA (3.37). With deep pockets and burgeoning stars such as outfielder Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles is ready to pocket an overdue championship.
All standings and statistics current as of Tuesday and courtesy of Baseball Reference.