B/R's 25-and-Under MLB All-Star Game: Which Young 2019 Stars Would Win?
The NBA has the Rising Stars Challenge that pits the top rookies and second-year players around the league against one another during All-Star Weekend. What if MLB cooked up something similar?
Rather than setting the cap at one or two years experience, setting an age limit of 25-and-under would be a great way to showcase some of the game's up-and-coming stars.
Ahead we've assembled AL and NL rosters of 25-and-under talent to give an idea of what such an event might look like in terms of participants. First, a few parameters:
- Players must currently be active at the MLB level to be eligible for inclusion.
- Players must be 25 years old or younger as of June 30 to be included.
- Just like the real All-Star Game, both rosters will consist of 32 players. For the sake of consistency, we went with 20 position players and 12 pitchers for both teams.
- Also just like the real All-Star Game, all 30 teams must have at least one representative. It's only fair, right?
- While WAR is a useful tool, it is too often turned to as the end-all, be-all stat. In this exercise, WAR will be used to pick a hypothetical winner, but it was not taken into account when assembling the rosters. Players were simply chosen based on their offensive and defensive contributions and what they've meant to the success of their respective teams.
Let's get to it!
Note: *=injured, #=injury replacement, starters listed in bold
AL Position Players
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C: Pedro Severino, BAL (25); Danny Jansen, TOR (24)
Severino has a 117 OPS+ with nine home runs and 25 RBI in 190 plate appearances, and he's also throwing out 36 percent of base stealers. Not bad for an offseason waiver claim from the Washington Nationals.
Meanwhile, Jansen has turned in a disappointing season overall at the plate with a 77 OPS+, but he's hitting better of late, he's been solid defensively, and the pickings were slim to fill the backup catcher spot.
1B: Matt Olson, OAK (25); Michael Chavis, BOS (23)
Despite missing 34 games following surgery on his right hand, Olson has still slugged 19 home runs and posted a 137 OPS+ in 58 games. The 2018 Gold Glove winner also provides value defensively.
The Red Sox slotted Chavis at second base when he was first promoted, but he's seen the bulk of his action at first base stepping in for the injured Mitch Moreland and Steve Pearce. He's cooled a bit since his torrid start, but he still sports a 106 OPS+ with 15 home runs and 48 RBI.
2B: Yoan Moncada, CWS (24); *Brandon Lowe, TB (24)
Moncada led the AL with 217 strikeouts and posted a disappointing 96 OPS+ in his first full season last year. He's lowered his strikeout rate (-6.0%) and he's hitting .308/.364/.544 with 16 home runs and 48 RBI.
Chosen to the actual All-Star Game, Lowe is dealing with a right shin contusion and was replaced on the AL squad by Gleyber Torres. With a 125 OPS+ and 35 extra-base hits, he earns a reserve spot here as well on the 25-and-under squad.
(Note: Yes, I'm aware Moncada is now a third baseman. With Lowe hurt and no other second baseman worthy of a roster spot, someone had to play second base.)
SS: Gleyber Torres, NYY (22); *Carlos Correa, HOU (24); J.P. Crawford, SEA (24); Francisco Lindor, CLE (25); Jorge Polanco, MIN (25), #Adalberto Mondesi, KC (23)
The wealth of talent here and the need to include Crawford as the lone representative for the Mariners means that Willy Adames (TB) is left off the roster, while Adalberto Mondesi (KC) had to settle for being an injury replacement for Brandon Lowe.
Torres (132 OPS+, 19 HR, 50 RBI) gets the nod to start over Polanco (133 OPS+, 13 HR, 42 RBI), who is starting the actual All-Star Game for the AL side. Lindor is having a down season by his standards but still has a 123 OPS+ with 14 home runs.
3B: Alex Bregman, HOU (25); Rafael Devers, BOS (22), David Fletcher, LAA (25)
This time, the AL starter in the All-Star Game matches up with our choice to start the 25-and-under game, with Bregman putting together another MVP-caliber season. After finishing fifth in the AL voting a year ago, he has a 145 OPS+ with 23 home runs and more walks (67) than strikeouts (51) at the break.
It's easy to forget Devers is still just 22 years old, and the pieces are finally falling into place on his vast offensive potential. Super-utility man David Fletcher (.295 BA, 107 OPS+) gets the nod over Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.249 BA, 100 OPS+) for one of the final spots on the roster.
OF: Byron Buxton, MIN (25); Joey Gallo, TEX (25); Austin Meadows, TB (24); Lourdes Gurriel Jr., TOR (25); Ramon Laureano, OAK (24)
Gallo (166 OPS+, 20 HR) and Meadows (128 OPS+, 12 HR) were both named among the AL All-Star reserves, and both are deserving starters in the 25-and-under game. Buxton (113 OPS+) is enjoying the best offensive season of his roller-coaster career while continuing to play elite defense (10 DRS, 22.3 UZR/150) in center field.
Laureano is backing up his surprise emergence down the stretch last year with a 109 OPS+ and 16 home runs to go along with 10 steals and solid glovework in center field. Gurriel has been a different hitter since returning from an early demotion to the minors, and he's taken well to the move from second base to left field.
DH: Shohei Ohtani, LAA (24); #Renato Nunez, BAL (25)
While it will still be some time before Ohtani shows off his two-way abilities on the mound, he's still doing plenty of damage with the bat, posting a 142 OPS+ with 14 home runs in 218 plate appearances.
Nunez has been a bright spot for the Orioles with a 109 OPS+ and 20 home runs.
AL Pitchers
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SP: RHP Lucas Giolito, CWS (24); RHP Jose Berrios, MIN (25); RHP Shane Bieber, CLE (24); RHP Griffin Canning, LAA (23); RHP Yonny Chirinos, TB (25); RHP Brad Keller, KC (23)
With Giolito, Berrios and Bieber all earning spots on the real AL All-Star roster, it's not surprising that it came down to someone from that trio to earn the starting nod. Here's a look at their numbers:
- Giolito: 100.0 IP, 3.15 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 120 K, .194 BAA
- Berrios: 117.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 104 K, .238 BAA
- Bieber: 112.1 IP, 3.45 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 141 K, .214 BAA
There's no wrong answer for who takes the ball to open the game.
Canning (65.0 IP, 4.43 ERA) and Keller (110.2 IP, 4.47 ERA) have been their team's best starters, while Chirinos (100.0 IP, 3.15 ERA) has given the Rays a major boost with Tyler Glasnow injured and Blake Snell regressing.
RP: LHP Jalen Beeks, TB (25); LHP Aaron Bummer, CWS (25); RHP Diego Castillo, TB (25); RHP Joe Jimenez, DET (24); RHP Ariel Jurado, TEX (23); RHP Roberto Osuna, HOU (24)
Beeks technically qualifies as a reliever since all 19 of his appearances have come out of the bullpen, but he's worked in a "bulk" role for the Rays, racking up 61.1 innings of work with a stellar 2.79 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Jurado has filled a similar role for the Rangers with a 4.23 ERA in 66 innings spanning nine starts and 10 relief appearances.
Osuna has converted 19 of 22 save chances with a 1.95 ERA and dominant peripherals. Castillo has seven saves and 11 holds with a 3.93 ERA in 33 appearances. Jimenez (38 G, 14 HLD, 4.81 ERA) fulfills the Tigers roster requirement.
The unheralded name here is Aaron Bummer, but he's more than earned his spot with a 1.89 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and a .174 opponents' batting average in 28 appearances. He's recorded 10 holds and fanned hitters at a solid 9.2 K/9 rate.
NL Position Players
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C: Carson Kelly, ARI (24); Victor Caratini, CHC (25)
One of the key return pieces in the Paul Goldschmidt trade, Kelly has quickly emerged as the catcher of the present and future for the D-backs with a 126 OPS+ and 10 home runs to go along with a 35 percent caught-stealing rate.
The only realistic choices for a Cubs representative were Caratini (98 PA, 125 OPS+, 11 XBH) and outfielder Albert Almora Jr., and when you see how loaded the NL outfield is, you'll understand why Caratini earned the unlikely nod.
1B: Pete Alonso, NYM (24); Dominic Smith, NYM (24)
One of the most exciting young players in baseball, Alonso has taken the league by storm since breaking camp with a roster spot. He earned a spot on the NL All-Star roster with a 166 OPS+ and 30 home runs, and he has already broken the Mets single-season rookie home run record.
His teammate Smith has split his time between first base (33 games) and left field (24 games), hitting his way into a bigger regular role with a 152 OPS+ and 18 extra-base hits in 157 plate appearances.
2B: Ketel Marte, ARI (25); Ozzie Albies, ATL (22)
Where in the world did Marte's power surge come from?
While he finished 2018 on a high note and looked like a potential breakout candidate, a 20-homer season would have looked like an optimistic projection after he hit 14 long balls in 580 plate appearances last year. Lo and behold, he has 20 homers at the break to go along with a stellar .311/.359/.559 line and 133 OPS+ in one of the biggest breakouts of the season.
Albies debuted as a 20-year-old and has quickly established himself as one of the best offensive second basemen in baseball. He's bounced back nicely from a second-half lull last year to post a 112 OPS+ with 21 doubles and 14 home runs, raising his walk rate (+2.7%) while watching his on-base percentage climb from .305 to .351.
SS: Fernando Tatis Jr., SD (20); Paul DeJong, STL (25); *Corey Seager, LAD (25); Dansby Swanson, ATL (25); #Kevin Newman, PIT (25)
It's a travesty that Tatis is not in the actual All-Star Game. Even with the time he missed to a hamstring injury, he's managed to hit .327/.393/.620 for a 166 OPS+ with 14 home runs and 13 steals in 55 games. He's also been a highlight-reel defender at shortstop.
DeJong (107 OPS+, 13 HR) was named among the NL reserves, and Swanson (108 OPS+, 17 HR) had a strong case as well in a breakout offensive season. A healthy Seager (117 OPS+, 29 XBH) was starting to look like the impact player of old before a hamstring strain sidelined him, and he's replaced on the roster by Newman (122 OPS+, 20 XBH), who has seized the open shortstop job in Pittsburgh.
3B: Austin Riley, ATL (22)
We're stretching a bit here since Riley has seen far more action in left field (45 games) than at third base (2 games), but he's a natural third baseman and the alternatives here were non-existent. With a 117 OPS+ and 16 home runs, he's made an immediate offensive impact for the first-place Braves.
OF: Ronald Acuna Jr., ATL (21); Cody Bellinger, LAD (23); Juan Soto, WAS (20); David Dahl, COL (25); Scott Kingery, PHI (25); Franmil Reyes, SD (23); Bryan Reynolds, PIT (24); Alex Verdugo, LAD (23); Jesse Winker, CIN (25)
The field here was deep enough that Nick Senzel (CIN) and Victor Robles (WAS) were left on the outside looking in, along with Harold Ramirez (MIA) and the aforementioned Almora (CHC).
That said, choosing the three starters was pretty easy. Bellinger is hitting .336 and is tied for second in the majors with 30 home runs, Soto hasn't missed a beat in his second season with 15 home runs and a 140 OPS+, and Acuna continues to be the catalyst in Atlanta with 53 RBI and 68 runs scored to go along with a 124 OPS+.
Dahl (109 OPS+, 23 2B, 12 HR) would join the starting lineup as the DH.
Kingery has moved to center field this year, but he could serve as the backup third baseman. Verdugo, Reynolds and Winker are all backing up their prospect profiles as gifted pure hitters, while Reyes has launched 25 home runs.
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NL Pitchers
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SP: RHP Walker Buehler, LAD (24); RHP Sandy Alcantara, MIA (23); RHP Shaun Anderson, SF (24); RHP Zach Eflin, PHI (25); RHP Dakota Hudson, STL (24); RHP Tyler Mahle, CIN (24); RHP German Marquez, COL (24); RHP Chris Paddack, SD (23); RHP Mike Soroka, ATL (21)
Just like on the AL side, the decision for who starts the game for the NL squad came down to guys who were named to the actual All-Star Game. Here's a look at their numbers:
- Buehler: 104.0 IP, 3.46 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 113 K, .226 BAA
- Soroka: 89.1 IP, 2.42 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 73 K, .220 BAA
Paddack (82.1 IP, 2.84 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 87 K, .194 BAA) also had a strong case for inclusion on the actual NL roster and was in consideration for the starting nod as well.
Eflin (100.0 IP, 3.78 ERA), Hudson (92.1 IP, 3.51 ERA) and Marquez (127.1 IP, 4.45 ERA) have been bright spots on disappointing staffs, while Mahle (92.2 IP, 4.47 ERA) has been quietly solid pitching in the shadow of breakout star Luis Castillo.
Alcantara (101.1 IP, 3.82 ERA) and Anderson (55.1 IP, 4.23 ERA) fulfill the roster requirements for the Marlins and Giants, respectively.
RP: LHP Josh Hader, MIL (25); *RHP Jordan Hicks, STL (22); LHP Julio Urias, LAD (22); #RHP Trey Wingenter, SD (25)
Hader was a no-brainer for the actual NL All-Star roster and he's a no-brainer here. The hard-throwing lefty has a 2.09 ERA with 20 saves in 21 chances and a staggering 79 strikeouts in 43 innings.
Urias has served in a hybrid role for the Dodgers, posting a 2.45 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and a dominant .176 opponents' batting average in 51.1 innings spanning five starts and 15 relief appearances.
Hicks had saved 14 games with a 3.14 ERA and 9.7 K/9 in 29 appearances before he was lost for the season to Tommy John surgery at the end of June. He's replaced on the roster by the unheralded Wingenter, who has a 3.44 ERA and 12.2 K/9 with 11 holds in 34 appearances with the Padres.
Who Wins?
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So which teams would win our hypothetical 25-and-under All-Star Game?
In case you skimmed past the introduction slide, here's a pertinent bullet point at this juncture:
- While WAR is a useful tool, it is too often turned to as the end-all, be-all stat. In this exercise, WAR will be used to pick a hypothetical winner, but it was not taken into account when assembling the rosters. Players were simply chosen based on their offensive and defensive contributions and what they've meant to the success of their respective teams.
So let's dive into the WAR breakdown for both teams:
- AL starters: 24.8
- AL hitters: 44.2
- AL pitchers: 17.5
- AL total: 61.7
- NL starters: 27.7
- NL hitters: 44.5
- NL pitchers: 17.4
- NL total: 61.9
Remember, David Dahl was chosen as the DH for the NL side, so he was included in the "NL starters" WAR total. Lucas Giolito and Walker Buehler are the starting pitchers, so they were included as well. Injured players who were replaced on the roster were not included toward WAR totals.
Both teams would have deep benches and loaded pitching staffs to turn to as the game progressed, so it's no surprise the WAR totals were so close. The NL starting lineup holds a slight edge, while Giolito is arguably the top pitcher on either side, so that could be the matchup that decides things.
Really, the only takeaway here should be that a 25-and-under All-Star Game would be awesome and Major League Baseball should get on that immediately.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted. WAR totals via Baseball Reference.
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