NFL Teams Most Likely to Break into the Playoffs in 2019

Every year, several NFL teams rise up from the periphery to become contenders.

In fact, at least four new teams have made the playoffs every year since the league adopted its current 12-team postseason format in 1990. And the year-to-year fluctuation has really picked up the last couple of seasons, with eight new teams appearing in the 2017 postseason after failing to do so in 2016 and seven jumping into the playoff fray in 2018 after missing out in 2017. 

Altogether, 75 percent of the NFL's 32 teams have made postseason appearances since 2016, with only the Cleveland Browns, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New York Jets, San Francisco 49ers, Arizona Cardinals, Cincinnati Bengals, Washington Redskins and Denver Broncos having consistently missed the playoff party the last three years. And the latter four of those teams made the cut in 2015. 

Here's why the first four teams on that list could end their respective droughts in 2019, along with a shoutout to two NFC North squads—the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers—that missed out on the last two postseasons.

Cleveland Browns

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The hype machine has been working so hard on the Browns that doubt is naturally starting to creep in about a team that looks destined to end a 16-season playoff drought in 2019.

An unnamed executive recently told ESPN.com's Mike Sando that "whatever success they have will be fleeting" while noting that the franchise is taking a tremendous risk in handing a "combustible" roster over to new head coach Freddie Kitchens. 

And that's fair, because Kitchens was only an offensive coordinator for eight games last season. His rise was meteoric, which means we don't know what to expect from him in his first head coaching role, and now he'll be handling some tough personalities, including incoming star receiver Odell Beckham Jr. 

But Kitchens' promotion also allows the Browns to maintain some continuity on offense, and with him running said offense during the second half of the 2018 season, the Browns were the only team in the NFL to average 6.9-plus yards per play. 

The Browns went 5-3 during that stretch, with rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield's 106.2 passer rating ranking sixth among 32 qualified quarterbacks in that span. And now, Mayfield suddenly has Beckham to throw to. After his first full offseason, I wouldn't rule out a Patrick Mahomes-type rise in his sophomore season. 

That alone could be enough to propel the Browns back to the playoffs in a vulnerable division that saw the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers both suffer multiple major blows in the offseason. 

Throw in anticipated rises from young talents like Myles Garrett, Nick Chubb, Denzel Ward, David Njoku and Austin Corbett, and the Browns just might be a Super Bowl contender in 2019. 

Detroit Lions

Carlos Osorio/Associated Press

We aren't as bullish on the Lions, but the talent is absolutely there for Detroit to become a surprise playoff squad in 2019.

And it obviously starts with quarterback Matthew Stafford, who has the ability to perform magic on the football field but has lacked consistency throughout his 10-year run as Detroit's starting signal-caller. Stafford struggled in 2018, but he's just two years removed from the best season of his career, and with enough support, it's easy to envision him finally putting it all together as a 31-year-old this fall. 

It helps that he might finally have a consistently reliable running game. Kerryon Johnson was one of just three qualified running backs to average more than 5.3 yards per carry during a 2018 rookie season that was ended prematurely by a November knee injury. 

But Johnson's healthy now, and he should be a key part of new offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell's system, as should reliable veteran slot receiver Danny Amendola (signed in free agency) and intriguing rookie tight end T.J. Hockenson (a Top 10 pick in last month's draft).

The offensive line also has plenty of young talent, there's room for top receiver Kenny Golladay to become a star, and the defense should significantly improve with the additions of big-money free-agent edge-rusher Trey Flowers and rising slot cornerback Justin Coleman. 

That unit struggled broadly last year but was already pretty skilled, and Darius Slay, Jarrad Davis and Da'Shawn Hand all have Pro Bowl-level ceilings.

It won't be easy to sneak into the postseason in the tough NFC North, but the Minnesota Vikings had plenty of issues in 2018, the Chicago Bears could regress after a breakout season (it happens quite a lot), and the Packers have missed the playoffs in each of the last two seasons. 

Speaking of Green Bay...

Green Bay Packers

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Can the Packers really miss the playoffs in three consecutive seasons in the middle of Aaron Rodgers' prime? It seems so unlikely that Green Bay is a good bet to at least grab a wild-card spot in 2019, especially considering the proactive changes that highlighted their impressive offseason. 

The Packers completely revamped the offense (schematically) and the defense (personnel-wise) as part of a furious reload.

New head coach Matt LaFleur should bring a fresh, innovative feel to an offense that had gone stale under the tutelage of the departed Mike McCarthy. Meanwhile, the defense will have an entirely new look and feel with the additions of pass-rushers Za'Darius Smith, Preston Smith and Rashan Gary, as well as defensive backs Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage Jr., all of whom should play large roles immediately. 

Rodgers says he "really wasn't 100 percent" at any point last season but still threw 25 touchdown passes to only two interceptions. He apparently feels "incredible" now, and under Lafleur he still has key veterans Davante Adams, David Bakhtiari, Bryan Bulaga and Jimmy Graham. Plus, running back Aaron Jones should be in for a breakout third season after leading the league with 5.5 yards per attempt in 2018. 

So long as Rodgers can stay healthy and avoid friction with LaFleur, the Packers should return to lighting up scoreboards frequently this fall. And now that the defense has been replenished, too—don't forget about incumbents Mike Daniels, Kenny Clark and Jaire Alexander—it'd be shocking if the Packers implode again in 2019. 

New York Jets

Seth Wenig/Associated Press

This is all about Sam Darnold. A hot quarterback can make all the difference in this league, and Darnold very well could take off in his sophomore season. 

In the final four weeks of his rookie campaign, the 2018 No. 3 overall pick completed 64 percent of his passes while throwing six touchdown passes to just one interception for a 99.1 passer rating. And only eight quarterbacks completed more 20-plus-yard passes during that stretch, which is an indication he was making some elite throws as the Jets took the training wheels off. 

Darnold had experienced an up-and-down start prior to that stretch, but let's keep in mind he was the youngest opening-day starting quarterback in modern NFL history. 

And while it's been a tumultuous offseason for the Jets, Darnold now has an offensive-minded, quarterback-oriented head coach whose roots are tied to Peyton Manning. Adam Gase should do Darnold a lot of good in his first full offseason as an NFL quarterback, as should veteran additions Le'Veon Bell, Jamison Crowder and Kelechi Osemele, all of whom will act as safety valves and/or security blankets for the soon-to-be 22-year-old USC product.

The offense can be good if Darnold continues to rise, and the defense was already talented before the Jets took highly touted former Alabama star Quinnen Williams third overall in last month's draft. If Williams can deliver as a rookie alongside Leonard Williams, 2017 first-round safety Jamal Adams and high-profile recent free-agent pickups Trumaine Johnson and C.J. Mosley, new defensive coordinator Gregg Williams' unit could become a major asset in 2019. 

The ingredients are there, and while the New England Patriots likely won't give the Jets a shot at their first division title since 2002, aligned stars could allow Gang Green to capture a wild-card spot in the wide-open AFC. 

San Francisco 49ers

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We'll need a do-over for the 49ers, who made a similar list by yours truly last year but had their playoff hopes quashed when franchise quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a season-ending knee injury in September. 

But Jimmy G should be fully healthy again this summer, and if he can stay that way, the talented 49ers should have a path to a potential wild-card berth in the NFC. 

Don't forget that with Garoppolo at the helm, San Francisco won its last five games in 2017. And that was before DeForest Buckner had become a star, before George Kittle had become the next big thing at the tight end position, before Matt Breida had broken out and before Jerick McKinnon, Tevin Coleman, Dee Ford, Nick Bosa, Mike McGlinchey and Kwon Alexander had joined the roster. 

The rebuild was still processing at that point. Now, it's complete. 

Based on Football Outsiders' adjusted games lost formula, only three NFL teams were hit harder by injuries last season than the 49ers. If the law of averages treats them better this year, a team with a stacked front seven, an emerging offense and a bright young head coach should have a chance to push the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks in their division and at least remain in the wild-card conversation as fall turns to winter.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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Meanwhile, nobody was hit harder by injuries last year than the Buccaneers, who had the talent to compete if healthy even before they landed new head coach Bruce Arians. 

But Arians could be a game-changer in Tampa. 

The Bucs offense was the No. 3-rated unit in the league last year despite the fact quarterback Jameis Winston again struggled with injuries and inconsistency. But after reclaiming his starting job from Ryan Fitzpatrick in November, Winston posted a triple-digit passer rating (100.1) and a 13-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio in the final seven weeks of the regular season. 

Now, he's got Arians, a quarterback whisperer who played a pivotal role in helping get the most out of Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Andrew Luck and Carson Palmer earlier in his career. He's not just a no-nonsense disciplinarian (something the Bucs need), but he's also a two-time Coach of the Year who has won everywhere (including Cleveland!), and he believes he can fix what has ailed Winston. 

In February, Arians said he felt "so much" of Winston's turnover problems were "mechanical," according to Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times. So we'll see if he and offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich can correct that this offseason. 

If they do, the Bucs could do some damage. Winston has a strong arsenal of weapons, including star receiver Mike Evans and emerging pass-catchers Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard, and he should be better supported by a young defense that was ravaged by injuries in 2018 but is loaded with young talent (newbies Ndamukong Suh and Devin White should help). 

The NFC South is stacked with three other contenders, but the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers had their issues last season, and the New Orleans Saints are relying heavily on a 40-year-old quarterback. The Bucs should easily improve on a five-win 2018 campaign, and if all clicks into place under Arians, they could even sneak into the playoffs in 2019.