Predicting the Future for NFL's Underwhelming Sophomores

Patience? Is that still a thing? In the NFL, the word has nearly become obsolete.

Top-notch rookies who failed to immediately take off last season are in most cases already approaching career crossroads. 

Here are 10 such youngsters (seven from Round 1, three with high profiles from Round 2) along with predictions for what might lie ahead (short- and long-term) in all 10 cases.

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills

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Accuracy was a concern many had regarding Josh Allen before the Buffalo Bills selected the Wyoming quarterback with the No. 7 overall pick in last year's draft. And while Allen put together some promising moments as a rookie, particularly with his legs, his completion rate of 52.8 was the worst among qualified passers by a significant margin. 

Meanwhile, he and Arizona Cardinals rookie Josh Rosen were the only two qualified quarterbacks to throw more interceptions than touchdown passes. 

But there's plenty of hope for Allen in 2019. The 22-year-old was considered raw and expected to struggle early. In fact, he might have been better served holding a tablet on the sideline for a lot longer than he did, especially considering the lack of talent in Buffalo. 

That's changed. Not only did Allen finish his rookie campaign at least a tad stronger than he started it, but he's had a full offseason to further develop, and the Bills have surrounded him with better weapons. 

Allen now has two intriguing safety valves in slot receiver Cole Beasley and tight end Tyler Kroft, a field-stretcher in outside receiver John Brown and a revamped offensive line featuring exciting new interior linemen Mitch Morse and Cody Ford. 

He'll likely still make a lot of mistakes in 2019, but look for Allen to become considerably more efficient and reliable under center while continuing to kill it as a rusher (he was one of two quarterbacks with 600 rushing yards in 2018). 

Predicted stats for 2019: 16 starts, 55.6 completion rate, 24 TD, 15 INT, 7.3 YPA, 3,380 passing yards

Long-term prediction: Will be a strong starter for more than a decade, making some Pro Bowls along the way, but will never become a megastar. 

Josh Rosen, QB, Miami Dolphins

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The only qualified quarterback who was worse on paper than Josh Allen? Josh Rosen, which helps to explain why the No. 10 overall pick is already on his second NFL team. 

It was horrifying as Rosen averaged just 5.8 yards per attempt, which was the sixth-lowest qualified mark in the NFL this decade and 0.7 yards fewer than the second-to-last-placed Allen. He ranked dead last in terms of both passer rating and QBR while winning just three of his 13 starts. 

It didn't help that Rosen's offensive line was one of the worst in football or that he lacked talent at the pass-catcher positions or that his offensive coordinator, Mike McCoy, was fired midway through the season. The UCLA product was put in a position to fail. 

But is he much better off as a member of the Miami Dolphins? The 22-year-old is now working with his fourth offensive coordinator since coming into the league less than 13 months ago, the Dolphins are also taking a chance on a new coaching staff, and it's not as though Miami is better off at receiver, tight end or running back. 

There's no guarantee Rosen will enjoy significantly better pass protection with the Dolphins, who don't have offensive weapons with track records on par with Larry Fitzgerald or David Johnson. And if he struggles, he could feel the heat from well-paid veteran teammate Ryan Fitzpatrick. 

Rosen might eventually put it together in this league, but there's a good chance that doesn't happen in 2019. 

Predicted stats: 10 starts, 56.2 completion rate, 8 TD, 11 INT, 7.0 YPA, 1,810 passing yards

Long-term prediction: It'll be tough to overcome if he struggles again in 2019, which is likely to happen. He might never get another proper chance and might never fully recover from this rough start. Still, he'll at least be a strong career backup with some nice moments as a starter. Think Ryan Fitzpatrick, who ironically enough is his teammate now. 

Rashaad Penny, RB, Seattle Seahawks

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Rashaad Penny is included here because he scored just two touchdowns and failed to amass 500 scrimmage yards as a rookie, which is pretty much automatically disappointing when you're a first-round running back in this day and age. 

But let's not forget that Penny was coming out of the Mountain West Conference. At this time last year, scouts suggested to Bleacher Report draft expert Matt Miller that the San Diego State product could "struggle picking up an NFL playbook." So he was likely going to require time, even if yours truly was the conductor of the Rashaad Penny hype train.

Penny was a victim of circumstances when fellow backs Chris Carson and Mike Davis started last year strong, and Carson continued to perform well enough to remain the No. 1 option in a revitalized backfield. 

Still, Carson was a seventh-round pick in 2017 and Penny was a first-rounder in 2018 for good reason, and the Seahawks will likely give Penny every chance to win the top job this offseason. 

It helps that Davis is gone after signing with the Chicago Bears, and you might be surprised to realize that Penny averaged more yards per carry (4.9) than Carson (4.7) in 2018. He was also better despite a small workload in Seattle's first-round playoff loss to the Dallas Cowboys, which is what has lingered for much of this offseason. 

Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll still views Carson and Penny as a "one-two punch," but look for the latter to take on a much larger role.

Predicted stats: 210 carries, 1,000 YDS, 4.8 YPC, 10 TD

Long-term prediction: You never know how long a running back's shelf life might be, but Penny has the skill set, size, speed, strength and experience to make multiple Pro Bowls. With Russell Wilson hogging attention and that offensive line making some progress, look for that to happen.

Ronald Jones, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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Since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger, 270 running backs selected in the first or second round have carried the ball at least 20 times as rookies. Only one of those 270 has averaged fewer than 2.0 yards per attempt, and his name is Ronald Jones. 

That's how bad the USC product was in his inaugural season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2018. And while his 23-carry sample is tiny, it's pretty telling that he couldn't earn more opportunities as both Peyton Barber and Jacquizz Rodgers also struggled with larger workloads. 

Of course, Jones gave an indication his problems weren't a fluke when he rushed for just 22 yards on 28 attempts in the preseason. 

It doesn't take long to become a bust at the running back position, and it's not a good sign that, according to running backs coach Todd McNair, the Bucs are already working on "restoring his confidence."

Jones is fast, but he might not offer much more than that at the NFL level. His lack of size (5'11", 205 pounds) has always been a concern, and it's possible he'll never become a top dog at the position. 

He could benefit from the arrival of new Bucs head coach Bruce Arians, as well as more consistency and support. But Jones will still have a lot of trouble becoming a star in the NFL. 

Predicted stats: 140 carries, 475 YDS, 3.4 YPC, 3 TD

Long-term prediction: Jones strikes me as the type of back who will serve in a platoon-type role for several years and then fail to earn a substantial second contract. 

James Washington, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

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Among 183 players who were targeted on 35 or more throws in 2018, Pittsburgh Steelers rookie wide receiver James Washington ranked 180th with a catch percentage of just 42.1.

But Washington finds himself in a position to rebound as a sophomore. Here's why: 

1. He entered the league with a limited route tree coming out of Oklahoma State, where he generally feasted on weak opposition. But now he's had a full offseason to develop. 

2. The Steelers no longer have Antonio Brown. 

3. But they've still got Ben Roethlisberger. 

4. And they've got JuJu Smith-Schuster, who should attract plenty of attention from opposing defenses. 

5. He started to come around late in 2018. Washington caught just three 20-plus-yard passes all year, but all three of those receptions came in the final three weeks of the season.

The guy has too much big-play ability and is in too great a spot to fail again in 2019. 

Predicted stats: 70 REC, 925 YDS, 5 TD

Long-term prediction: Washington will make two or three Pro Bowls over the course of a career that should span at least a decade. He's a quality No. 2 receiver who could be a top guy on certain rosters and is good for several big plays per year.

DJ Chark, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

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DJ Chark was selected one slot after Washington in last year's draft, and on a per-target basis, the LSU product was just about as bad. He caught just 14 passes on 32 targets while failing to record a 20-plus-yard reception in 10 of his 11 appearances in a touchdown-less rookie campaign. 

But Chark was always a long-term project, with Miller noting last spring that the 22-year-old would "have to develop as a technician to continue succeeding against NFL cornerbacks" before concluding that he could eventually turn into a top-tier wideout with "a few years of coaching."

A decent quarterback would also help, and Chark should have an opportunity to at least take a baby step forward with Super Bowl LII MVP Nick Foles replacing departed bust Blake Bortles under center in Jacksonville. Plus, it could help that the Jags lack talent and depth at the receiver position. 

Look for some short-term improvement, but Chark might have too much to overcome from a technique standpoint to become a star.

Predicted stats: 30 REC, 390 YDS, 3 TD

Long-term prediction: He has the physical ability to be a good No. 2 receiver for as long as a decade in the right environment. 

Hayden Hurst, TE, Baltimore Ravens

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It wouldn't be fair to hold a dud rookie season against Baltimore Ravens tight end Hayden Hurst, who suffered a serious foot injury during training camp and spent his maiden NFL campaign with a screw inserted in said foot. 

The stress fracture caused the South Carolina product to miss the first four games of the regular season, and it was almost impossible to catch up from there. 

Despite not being 100 percent while working within an unstable passing game, Hurst still managed to catch a decent 56.5 percent of the passes thrown his way. And 81 of his 163 receiving yards came in the final three weeks of the regular season. 

But now, the 2017 first-team All-SEC tight end appears to be fully healthy, the Ravens offense should be more stable at the quarterback position with Lamar Jackson entering his second season, and Hurst will likely be given plenty of opportunities to earn more reps. Still, the 25-year-old is somewhat trapped in a run-first offense that features several capable tight ends. 

So don't expect him to suddenly become a stud in 2019. 

Predicted stats: 40 REC, 475 YDS, 4 TD

Long-term prediction: He'll be 26 before this season starts, and Miller noted that he was "physically maxed out" before his career got underway. He could have a Pro Bowl season or two in him if he stays healthy and gets hot here and there, but he's not a blocker and might not have the playmaking ability to become special. 

Marcus Davenport, DE, New Orleans Saints

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Considering their draft-night trade with the Green Bay Packers, the New Orleans Saints essentially sacrificed two first-round picks for pass-rusher Marcus Davenport. So it was far from ideal when the UTSA product registered just 22 tackles and 4.5 sacks as a role player in 2018. 

Davenport was on the field for only 40 percent of the Saints' defensive snaps during a rookie season that was thwarted by injuries (he suggested on Twitter after early-offseason surgery that he played through an injury that should have ended his 2018 campaign prematurely). 

That's enough to earn Davenport a bit of a pass, especially considering that, according to Pro Football Focus, he still managed a solid 30 quarterback pressures on 296 pass-rushes. 

Per an April article from Luke Johnson of the Times-Picayune, Saints head coach Sean Payton still came out of the 2018 campaign believing that Davenport "is going to be a dominant player for us," while general manager Mickey Loomis added that the team is "looking for big things from him" going forward.

Davenport was always a developmental pick in my eyes after a mere 8.5 sacks as a Conference USA senior. With veteran 2018 starting defensive end Alex Okafor now a member of the Kansas City Chiefs, watch for Davenport to begin to feast opposite four-time Pro Bowler Cameron Jordan in 2019. 

Predicted stats: 14 starts, 10 sacks, 3 forced fumbles

Long-term prediction: Davenport can and should become a perennial Pro Bowler. 

Taven Bryan, DT, Jacksonville Jaguars

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Even Taven Bryan's biggest fans probably couldn't muster anything more than mild disappointment when the Jacksonville Jaguars' first-round pick failed to make a substantial impact as a rookie defensive tackle in 2018. After all, Bryan's production often failed to live up to his measurables at Florida, and he was realistically drafted as a developmental project by a team that already had veteran defensive tackles Malik Jackson and Marcell Dareus playing key roles.

Bryan was on the field for only 29 percent of the team's defensive snaps as a rookie, so it's no surprise he recorded just 20 tackles and a sack. 

It's far too early to call the 23-year-old a bust, and he should have plenty of chances to avoid that looming label with Jackson now a member of the Philadelphia Eagles. But there were indications Bryan could have been over-drafted by Jacksonville. He entered the league lacking length, instincts and consistency on tape, and when looking at his play at Florida, as well as with the Jags, it's hard to see a future star. 

He did fare all right at Pro Football Focus within a limited sample, though, and I've been wrong plenty of times before.

Predicted stats: 10 starts, 3 sacks, 40 tackles, 1 forced fumble

Long-term prediction: Bryan looks like he could turn into an average starter by Year 3, but the ceiling might not be a lot higher. 

Mike Hughes, CB, Minnesota Vikings

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Another late-first-round pick who has a lot to prove this season is Minnesota Vikings cornerback Mike Hughes. Hughes played early in the season before before suffering a season-ending knee injury in Week 6. 

The UCF product looks to be on track to return this offseason, but Xavier Rhodes, Trae Waynes and Mackensie Alexander likely remain above him on the cornerback depth chart in Minnesota. Rhodes is two years removed from an All-Pro campaign, Waynes was a Top 12 pick in 2015 who has started 30 games the last two seasons, and Alexander looks primed for a breakout season in the slot. 

There's been plenty of speculation that the Vikes could consider trading Rhodes or Alexander, but until that happens or someone suffers an injury, it's hard to see Hughes' role increasing significantly in 2019. 

Look for Hughes to conservatively make progress as he reacclimates during what might feel more like a rookie season.  

The question is whether he'll ever emerge as a player worthy of a first-round selection, and I'm not convinced. There are red flags off the field (he was dismissed from North Carolina after a sexual assault allegation that did not yield criminal charges) and on the field (he's got limited experience against top-quality competition, he struggled at the combine, he didn't play great before getting hurt as a rook, and his lack of height could keep him in the slot). 

That last point could be key, because Alexander owned the slot in Minnesota for much of the 2018 campaign.

Predicted stats: 2 starts, 2 INT, 8 passes defensed

Long-term prediction: Not sure he'll ever be a Pro Bowler, but he could become a strong nickel corner in the right environment.