NFL Mock Draft 2019: 1st-Round Projections and Riskiest Prospects
The risk/reward balance is one of the most important aspects of the NFL draft process.
Those front offices that end up rolling the dice correctly often come out ahead of the field over the long term. A year ago, the Cleveland Browns stood firm on the Baker Mayfield idea and, so far, it has paid off in an encouraging manner.
On the other end of the spectrum, the Oakland Raiders gambled on a polarizing offensive tackle with Kolton Miller at No. 15, and this offseason they had to pay big money to Trent Brown in free agency to fix the offensive line.
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This year, plenty of first-round risks exist, so let's zoom in on the three biggest after a look at an updated mock.
2019 NFL Mock Draft
1. Arizona Cardinals: Nick Bosa, DE, Ohio State
2. San Francisco 49ers: Josh Allen, DE/OLB, Kentucky
3. New York Jets: Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama
4. Oakland Raiders: Ed Oliver, DT, Houston
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Montez Sweat, DE, Mississippi State
6. New York Giants: Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State
7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Noah Fant, TE, Iowa
8. Detroit Lions: Brian Burns, DE, Florida State
9. Buffalo Bills: Jonah Williams, OT, Alabama
10. Denver Broncos: Drew Lock, QB, Missouri
11. Cincinnati Bengals: Devin White, LB, LSU
12. Green Bay Packers: T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa
13. Miami Dolphins: Jawaan Taylor, OT, Florida
14. Atlanta Falcons: Rashan Gary, DE, Michigan
15. Washington Redskins: Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma
16. Carolina Panthers: N'Keal Harry, WR, Arizona State
17. New York Giants (via Cleveland Browns): Andre Dillard, OT, Washington State
18. Minnesota Vikings: Byron Murphy, CB, Washington
19. Tennessee Titans: Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Greedy Williams, CB, LSU
21. Seattle Seahawks: Hakeem Butler, WR, Iowa State
22. Baltimore Ravens: A.J. Brown, WR, Ole Miss
23. Houston Texans: Garrett Bradbury, OL, NC State
24. Oakland Raiders (via Chicago Bears): D.K. Metcalf, WR, Ole Miss
25. Philadelphia Eagles: Josh Jacobs, RB, Alabama
26. Indianapolis Colts: Marquise Brown, WR, Oklahoma
27. Oakland Raiders (via Dallas Cowboys): Daniel Jones, QB, Duke
28. Los Angeles Chargers: Cody Ford, G, Oklahoma
29. Kansas City Chiefs: Clelin Ferrell, DE, Clemson
30. Green Bay Packers (via New Orleans Saints): Devin Bush, LB, Michigan
31. Los Angeles Rams: Deionte Thompson, S, Alabama
32. New England Patriots: Jace Sternberger, TE, Texas A&M
14. Atlanta Falcons: Rashan Gary, DE, Michigan
Rashan Gary is one of the draft's more interesting players because much of his hype comes in the form of what he could be, not what he is out of college.
Gary is a tremendous athlete and displayed that during the pre-draft process, measuring at 6'4" and 277 pounds and ripping off a 4.58-second time in the 40-yard dash, 26 reps of 225 pounds on the bench press and a 38-inch vertical jump.
But those numbers don't negate film that shows a lack of refined pass-rushing moves. His size fuels some debate as to which defensive front he might fit into at the next level.
On top of the usual prospect concerns, there is this report from Jason La Canfora of CBSSports.com: "Continue to hear some teams have medical red flags on Rashan Gary (Michigan). He's a first-round guy, but I wouldn't be shocked if it's a little lower than some project."
Still, it only takes one team to fall in love with Gary's physical makeup and think its coaching staff will unlock his potential. A team like the Atlanta Falcons would love to get him up front and boost a unit that only recorded 37 sacks last season.
15. Washington Redskins: Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma
Kyler Murray is likely the riskiest prospect in the 2019 class.
And no, it doesn't have anything to do with the MLB side of things. It is everything else: Murray is quite undersized at 5'10" and 207 pounds. The questions about throwing lanes don't matter much, presuming he lands with a smart coaching staff, but durability is a fair question.
And while the 4,361 passing yards, 42 touchdowns and 1,001 yards and 12 rushing scores at Oklahoma last year were incredible, Murray only has one year of production and in a specific offensive look.
A summary by NFL.com's Lance Zierlein says it well:
"Severely undersized, one-year starter with rare playmaking talent that could force general managers to reassess long-held notions about size and style for a franchise quarterback. Murray is like a complex burgundy with notes of Baker Mayfield, Johnny Manziel and Russell Wilson in his play, but like any quarterback, he'll need to prove he can recognize disguised coverages and work on-time from the pocket to go from flash talent to playoff winner."
The inherent risks with Murray are why teams might be willing to pass, instead of gambling on variables going their way.
But he won't fall far. The Washington Redskins can't resist, especially if it means a rejuvenated fanbase and an avoidance of banking an entire season on the arm of Case Keenum.
24. Oakland Raiders (via Chicago Bears): D.K. Metcalf, WR, Ole Miss
D.K. Metcalf is quite close behind Murray in the risk department.
Metcalf was one of the hottest commodities out of the NFL Scouting Combine because he blazed a 4.33-second time in the 40-yard dash while measuring 6'3" and 228 pounds. But quietly, he posted bad agility drills, including a 7.38-second time in the three-cone drill.
The drill in context, according to Sports Illustrated's Jonathan Jones: "Metcalf's three-cone time of 7.38 seconds would have just edged 306-pound Garrett Bradbury for the fastest among offensive linemen, and it's almost 0.8 of a second slower than what Julio Jones posted in 2011. Three defensive tackles at this year's combine beat his shuttle time of 4.5 seconds."
So it goes with Metcalf. A bigger receiver with slower feet is a risk. In college, it is easy to fixate on his 12 touchdowns over the past two seasons while averaging 16.6 or more yards per catch, but it glosses over the fact he wasn't the team's top target in either season. There was also a broken foot and neck injury in college.
Even then, NFL teams won't be able to look past what Metcalf could turn into. Maybe he is a situational threat as a rookie. A team like the Oakland Raiders, which boasts three first-round picks, will likely be willing to find out.
At worst, the Raiders would hope to get a player who can help move the chains or even score to help prop up Derek Carr or a rookie passer.
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